Nate Silver's Bias Exposed

For discussion of politics, and what's going on in the world today.

Moderators: kiore, Blip, The_Metatron

Re: Nate Silver's Bias Exposed

#21  Postby Teague » May 17, 2016 4:17 pm

Yeah their no bias at all :roll:
User avatar
Teague
THREAD STARTER
 
Posts: 10072

United Kingdom (uk)
Print view this post

Re: Nate Silver's Bias Exposed

#22  Postby Thommo » May 17, 2016 4:23 pm

Their polls plus model generally was more favorable to Bernie than the polls only model in a large number of those races. Bernie outperformed the polls in that selected subsample (which is itself a red flag). How does that actually show the individuals were biased?

They have correctly predicted that Bernie will lose the nomination, but he came closer than the polls would predict. You might (if you made a more careful treatement that looked at margins of error, genuine movements in voter intentions and included the whole data set) conclude that the polls on which they based their forecasts were biased, with the benefit of hindsight, but that's an entirely different thing to claiming an individual bias on the part of Nate Silver.

"Bernie outperformed the polls" is a vastly different, and more balanced claim than "Nate Silver is biased".

Mind you, when that's said and done, then you'd have to consider alternate considered viewpoints like:
http://election.princeton.edu/2016/03/2 ... rediction/
Image
User avatar
Thommo
 
Posts: 27477

Print view this post

Re: Nate Silver's Bias Exposed

#23  Postby Teague » May 17, 2016 4:59 pm

I think there's been a clear bias from the start against Sanders. If the polls are meaningless at the start, why say he's not going to win. Clinton has always been assumed to be the winner and she's had more network coverage whilst Sanders has had multiple hatchet jobs done on him not to mention coincidentally having all of his voters suddenly find they're not registered as democrats. Now whether or not Silver has been affected by that would be born out in what he's been saying. If he's not affected, he would have gone strictly by the numbers.
User avatar
Teague
THREAD STARTER
 
Posts: 10072

United Kingdom (uk)
Print view this post

Re: Nate Silver's Bias Exposed

#24  Postby Thommo » May 17, 2016 5:08 pm

Teague wrote:I think there's been a clear bias from the start against Sanders. If the polls are meaningless at the start, why say he's not going to win.


Because there's an enormous excluded middle between "meaningless" and "infallible". It's where all science, and in particular the science of statistics resides. That's why we have confidence intervals, p-values and error bars.

Teague wrote:Clinton has always been assumed to be the winner and she's had more network coverage whilst Sanders has had multiple hatchet jobs done on him not to mention coincidentally having all of his voters suddenly find they're not registered as democrats.


She's always been in the lead and been treated as such. I don't know why you're repeating this "multiple hatchet job" canard yet again, you know that the audience here doesn't agree with it and you aren't presenting new information on it. Clinton has had vastly more negative press than Sanders has.

http://mediamatters.org/blog/2016/04/15 ... all/209945
Image

Teague wrote:Now whether or not Silver has been affected by that would be born out in what he's been saying. If he's not affected, he would have gone strictly by the numbers.


And nothing in the TYT video shows he didn't. Nothing in the articles you linked shows he didn't. What your argument is missing is, well, the part where you actually argue from facts, via inference to the conclusion. The closest anything so far has come is the counterpunch article which amounts to "if you count predictions that 538 didn't make and discount a lot of the ones they did make, then take an incorrectly weighted average, then 538's predictions have been biased". But of course, pointing out that their predictions have undershot for Clinton in the South and undershot for Sanders in the North is something we already knew, and points to possible errors in the model of a different sort than simple personal bias against one or other candidate.
User avatar
Thommo
 
Posts: 27477

Print view this post

Re: Nate Silver's Bias Exposed

#25  Postby Teague » May 17, 2016 5:14 pm

So Clinton has received negative press from democratic publications the same as Sanders has? There's no hatchet jobs? - the Daily Beast didn't do one at all on him, is that your position? The WP running 16 negative stories in one day? The NY times making a positive article they had into a negative one but inserting some bullshit - not hatchet jobs?
User avatar
Teague
THREAD STARTER
 
Posts: 10072

United Kingdom (uk)
Print view this post

Re: Nate Silver's Bias Exposed

#26  Postby Thommo » May 17, 2016 5:18 pm

Teague wrote:So Clinton has received negative press from democratic publications the same as Sanders has? There's no hatchet jobs? - the Daily Beast didn't do one at all on him, is that your position? The WP running 16 negative stories in one day? The NY times making a positive article they had into a negative one but inserting some bullshit - not hatchet jobs?


I'm taking the full clause of your text at face value Teague:

"Clinton has always been assumed to be the winner and she's had more network coverage whilst Sanders has had multiple hatchet jobs done on him"

It's a meaningless complaint if Clinton has had more hatchet jobs done on her and Sanders has had a bigger proportion of positive press. You contrast the positive for one candidate not on a like for like basis with the positive for another candidate, but a positive for one candidate with a negative for the other. It shows your bias, not anyone else's, because one can always formulate such statements to suit one's agenda. E.g. a Clinton supporter might instead have written:-

"Clinton has always been the race leader despite having had multiple hatchet jobs done on her whilst Sanders has had more positive media coverage"
User avatar
Thommo
 
Posts: 27477

Print view this post

Re: Nate Silver's Bias Exposed

#27  Postby GT2211 » May 17, 2016 5:52 pm

I feel like Teague lives in a bubble. A world in which Bernie is the only candidate to get negative coverage.


One where the NYT didn't publish an article that started off with this:

WASHINGTON — AFTER running as a man last time around, Hillary Clinton is now running as a woman.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/17/opini ... .html?_r=0

And one where the NYT was fueling emailgate when they published an article claiming that that an investigation had led to a criminal referral to the DOJ, that they later admitted that nothing of the sort had happened.
http://www.newsweek.com/hillary-clinton ... ils-357246
gt2211: Making Ratskep Great Again!
User avatar
GT2211
 
Posts: 3089

United States (us)
Print view this post

Re: Nate Silver's Bias Exposed

#28  Postby Thommo » May 18, 2016 4:47 am

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wha ... nd-oregon/

Of course, the only thing that matters is delegates. If Clinton wins Kentucky by 2 percentage points and Sanders wins Oregon by 15 percentage points, this translates into Sanders cutting his elected delegate deficit by about eight. That would leave Clinton with a lead of 272 elected delegates with very few primaries left.


Looks like today's results don't fit in with the biased against Bernie theory too well either.
User avatar
Thommo
 
Posts: 27477

Print view this post

Re: Nate Silver's Bias Exposed

#29  Postby Teague » May 18, 2016 11:17 am

Sanders's supporters have alleged that the press has unfairly treated the Vermont senator's candidacy, even picketing CNN to protest a "media blackout" of their candidate.

At first glance, the Crimson Hexagon data suggests that they're wrong to complain: After all, it shows that the media has battered Clinton more than any other candidate, perhaps because of the ongoing controversy over her emails.

But the greater scrutiny probably also reflects the fact that the media regards her as a much more serious frontrunner than Sanders. And that may really have hurt Sanders's chances as much as — or more than — negative stories.

"If you are portrayed as not having much of a chance to win, studies show voters tend to pick up on that. They echo the opinions of journalists that certain candidates are not worth following," says Bob Lichter, a George Mason communications professor and director of the Center for Media and Public Affairs.

Of course, this cuts both ways. Sanders's fans may have a point when they complain that the press hasn't taken their candidate seriously. But if the media had treated Sanders as a likely winner, it would have almost certainly attacked him more frequently too.

"One of the goals of American journalists is to get out all the information on the person most likely to be president," Lichter says. "As soon as a person moves ahead in the polls, the coverage turns more negative."

http://www.vox.com/2016/4/15/11410160/hillary-clinton-media-bernie-sanders


So we can see they just contradicted themselves here. So the more coverage you get as long as you're the presumptive winner means more negative coverage but you still win because even in that negative coverage you're still the presumptive winner. They only said a few sentences ago that not being the presumptive winner has a worse impact and that's exactly how the media have treated sanders.

Clinton also got over twice the media coverage Sanders got so should we double his bar?
User avatar
Teague
THREAD STARTER
 
Posts: 10072

United Kingdom (uk)
Print view this post

Re: Nate Silver's Bias Exposed

#30  Postby Willie71 » May 18, 2016 4:23 pm

It seems odd that people cannot see bias in a corporate media that has donated to one of the candidates, but not the other. Maybe people don't know the basics of conflict of interest.
We should probably go for a can of vegetables because not only would it be a huge improvement, you'd also be able to eat it at the end.
User avatar
Willie71
 
Name: Warren Krywko
Posts: 3247
Age: 52
Male

Country: Canada
Canada (ca)
Print view this post

Re: Nate Silver's Bias Exposed

#31  Postby purplerat » May 18, 2016 4:36 pm

It seems odd how some people see bias anytime somebody or something disagrees with them.
User avatar
purplerat
 
Posts: 12949
Male

Country: Only in America
United States (us)
Print view this post

Re: Nate Silver's Bias Exposed

#32  Postby Thommo » May 18, 2016 6:56 pm

Willie71 wrote:It seems odd that people cannot see bias in a corporate media that has donated to one of the candidates, but not the other. Maybe people don't know the basics of conflict of interest.


The thread is called "Nate Silver's Bias Exposed". How much has Nate Silver donated to Hillary Clinton?

The sentence in question complained about "multiple hatchet jobs done on him". Which candidate has had more more hatchet jobs done on them?

If you want to engage in more than insinuation, by all means do so. At this point I'd even settle for evidence of this (off topic) insinuation that Clinton has had more money from people who work in media than Sanders has, because that too is not information I've ever seen and that you now seem to think you have enough of to make derogatory implications about what people do and do not know about the concept of a conflict of interest.
User avatar
Thommo
 
Posts: 27477

Print view this post

Re: Nate Silver's Bias Exposed

#33  Postby Willie71 » May 18, 2016 7:31 pm

Thommo wrote:
Willie71 wrote:It seems odd that people cannot see bias in a corporate media that has donated to one of the candidates, but not the other. Maybe people don't know the basics of conflict of interest.


The thread is called "Nate Silver's Bias Exposed". How much has Nate Silver donated to Hillary Clinton?

The sentence in question complained about "multiple hatchet jobs done on him". Which candidate has had more more hatchet jobs done on them?

If you want to engage in more than insinuation, by all means do so. At this point I'd even settle for evidence of this (off topic) insinuation that Clinton has had more money from people who work in media than Sanders has, because that too is not information I've ever seen and that you now seem to think you have enough of to make derogatory implications about what people do and do not know about the concept of a conflict of interest.


Iirc, the TYT video talked about bias in a non corrupt way. I provided a link to an analysis of the bias in the numbers. It's there in black and white in the second post. TYT covers Nate's opinion commentary. It seemed sound to me. I thought the exact same things when I read that commentary myself.

Regarding the media, there are hundreds of critiques of the decline of journalism since the removal of the fairness doctrine, and the move to for profit news, dependent on advertising dollars. One of the major media corporations has donated directly to the Clinton campaign, and another has held fundraiser(s) for her. I'm off to an emergency session in 5 minutes, so I'll get some links later. I thought this was common knowledge around here. I guess not.
We should probably go for a can of vegetables because not only would it be a huge improvement, you'd also be able to eat it at the end.
User avatar
Willie71
 
Name: Warren Krywko
Posts: 3247
Age: 52
Male

Country: Canada
Canada (ca)
Print view this post

Re: Nate Silver's Bias Exposed

#34  Postby Thommo » May 18, 2016 7:44 pm

Willie71 wrote:
Thommo wrote:
Willie71 wrote:It seems odd that people cannot see bias in a corporate media that has donated to one of the candidates, but not the other. Maybe people don't know the basics of conflict of interest.


The thread is called "Nate Silver's Bias Exposed". How much has Nate Silver donated to Hillary Clinton?

The sentence in question complained about "multiple hatchet jobs done on him". Which candidate has had more more hatchet jobs done on them?

If you want to engage in more than insinuation, by all means do so. At this point I'd even settle for evidence of this (off topic) insinuation that Clinton has had more money from people who work in media than Sanders has, because that too is not information I've ever seen and that you now seem to think you have enough of to make derogatory implications about what people do and do not know about the concept of a conflict of interest.


Iirc, the TYT video talked about bias in a non corrupt way. I provided a link to an analysis of the bias in the numbers. It's there in black and white in the second post. TYT covers Nate's opinion commentary. It seemed sound to me. I thought the exact same things when I read that commentary myself.

Regarding the media, there are hundreds of critiques of the decline of journalism since the removal of the fairness doctrine, and the move to for profit news, dependent on advertising dollars. One of the major media corporations has donated directly to the Clinton campaign, and another has held fundraiser(s) for her. I'm off to an emergency session in 5 minutes, so I'll get some links later. I thought this was common knowledge around here. I guess not.


I already addressed the counterpunch article, the bias is most certainly not "there in black and white". If you ignore half the data that points in one direction, it is absolutely no surprise at all when the remaining half points in the other. That will always happen to a non biased distribution if you treat it that way.

Not that this answers the questions I asked, or supports the claims that you were making in any way, though. If you want to show that there's an anti Sanders bias because people in the media have donated to Clinton, then you need to show that people in the media haven't also donated a similar amount to Sanders - otherwise that's not a bias.
User avatar
Thommo
 
Posts: 27477

Print view this post

Re: Nate Silver's Bias Exposed

#35  Postby Oldskeptic » May 18, 2016 9:06 pm

Thomo says he'll settle for some evidence that media corporations are contributing large sums to Hillary. Willie's response is to say that it's common knowledge.

Lot of common knowledge with little to no evidential support coming from some Bernie supporters 'round here. Kinda like at TYT.
There is nothing so absurd that some philosopher will not say it - Cicero.

Traditionally these are questions for philosophy, but philosophy is dead - Stephen Hawking
User avatar
Oldskeptic
 
Posts: 7395
Age: 67
Male

Print view this post

Re: Nate Silver's Bias Exposed

#36  Postby Thommo » May 18, 2016 9:11 pm

Re: "Black and White".

Look at the numbers for yourself. The 538 site has made predictions based on two models: polls only and polls plus.

Polls only has been off (in favour of Clinton) by 0.35% per state, polls plus has been off (in favour of Clinton) by 2.56% per state. That's what's "there in black and white", and if you think those sort of errors are remotely supportive of the bullshit counterpunch is trying to sell, or indicative of personal bias then I think you need to look more closely. The errors aren't that big and nobody claimed the models were going to be perfect in the first place.

One possible explanation is that Bernie has managed to generate some movement of between 0.35% and 2.56% in his direction by convincing people of the merits of his message, for example. If there's actual movement in voter intention (which is hardly unprecedented), then that would explain the lack of perfection in the model.

Image
Last edited by Thommo on May 19, 2016 4:11 am, edited 3 times in total.
User avatar
Thommo
 
Posts: 27477

Print view this post

Re: Nate Silver's Bias Exposed

#37  Postby Thommo » May 18, 2016 9:14 pm

Oldskeptic wrote:Thomo says he'll settle for some evidence that media corporations are contributing large sums to Hillary.


I want to clarify that I didn't. I asked for evidence that people who work in media (whether that be the corporations, or employees who also have control over the output of the channel) donated more to Clinton than to Sanders.

If both candidates (say) got $10million from people who could influence the output in favour of a candidate, then that doesn't show any reason to assume bias, but that could be selectively portrayed as "Hillary Clinton got $10m from media influences, that's a clear conflict of interest and possible source of bias". Even though the exact same applies to Bernie in that example.

Let's not lose sight of where this "point" entered the debate - in favour of the assumption that the media is biased against Bernie.

I have absolutely no interest whatsoever in cherry picked data that picks out "corporate donations" and ignores other equally plausible paths to influence content output, like personal donations from the people who make, research, present and edit the programs themselves.
User avatar
Thommo
 
Posts: 27477

Print view this post

Re: Nate Silver's Bias Exposed

#38  Postby Willie71 » May 19, 2016 3:22 am

https://www.opensecrets.org/politicians ... cle=Career

Time Warner is the 8th largest donor to Clinton. They own CNN. Not a conflict if interest?

The giant media companies that shape much of the coverage of the presidential campaign have a vested stake in the outcome. From campaign finance laws that govern how money is spent on advertising to the regulators who oversee consolidation rules, the media industry has a distinct policy agenda, and with it, a political team to influence the result.

The top fundraisers for Clinton include lobbyists who serve the parent companies of CNN and MSNBC.

The National Association of Broadcasters, a trade group that represents the television station industry, has lobbyists who are fundraising for both Clinton and Republican candidate Marco Rubio.

Presidential campaigns are obligated by law to send the Federal Election Commission a list of lobbyists who serve as “bundlers,” collecting hundreds of individual checks on behalf of a candidate’s campaign.

CNN’s parent company, Time Warner, is represented on Capitol Hill by Steve Elmendorf, an adviser to Clinton during her 2008 campaign, who is also known as “one of Washington’s top lobbyists.” He’s lobbied on a number of issues important for media companies like CNN, including direct-to-consumer advertising policy.


https://theintercept.com/2015/10/29/med ... sidential/

I thought everyone knew this. It's been posted multiple times in these threads, there is a clear conflict of interest that is ignored.
We should probably go for a can of vegetables because not only would it be a huge improvement, you'd also be able to eat it at the end.
User avatar
Willie71
 
Name: Warren Krywko
Posts: 3247
Age: 52
Male

Country: Canada
Canada (ca)
Print view this post

Re: Nate Silver's Bias Exposed

#39  Postby Thommo » May 19, 2016 3:44 am

I hate to self quote, but I addressed that post in the last few sentences written before you posted it.
Thommo wrote:I have absolutely no interest whatsoever in cherry picked data that picks out "corporate donations" and ignores other equally plausible paths to influence content output, like personal donations from the people who make, research, present and edit the programs themselves.


I did not ask for information proving that Clinton had had some donations from sources over an unspecified period of a long political career that might have some nebulous influence over the media. I asked for information that would actually be relevant to this thread - i.e. showing that Clinton's donations from any such source exceeded Sanders's donations from any such source, and hence create a reason to believe that the media might hypothetically be biased against Sanders. Even your original phrasing directly acknowledged this point: "has donated to one of the candidates, but not the other.".

Even then it should be clear why such inferential evidence is less desirable to direct evidence of bias. It was never an issue of it not being widely known that "money came from the organizations' PACs, their individual members or employees or owners, and those individuals' immediate families" of Time Warner, over Hillary Clinton's career. The question is why that is somehow a more valid cause to assume bias than, say the Communications Workers Union of America openly endorsing Bernie Sanders, which is every bit as much a conflict of interest.
User avatar
Thommo
 
Posts: 27477

Print view this post

Re: Nate Silver's Bias Exposed

#40  Postby Oldskeptic » May 19, 2016 5:10 am

Willie71 wrote:https://www.opensecrets.org/politicians/contrib.php?cid=N00000019&cycle=Career

Time Warner is the 8th largest donor to Clinton.


No, Time Warner employees as a group are Hillary's 8th largest contributor right behind the employees of California's university system who also are Bernie's 2nd largest contributors.

And why shouldn't Time-Warner employees contribute to Hillary and not Bernie? Hillary didn't come out as opposing a Time-Warner merger with Charter Communications that promised to insure their job security by bringing Time-Warner's call centers back from overseas and creating new jobs, Bernie did.

They own CNN. Not a conflict if interest?

The giant media companies that shape much of the coverage of the presidential campaign have a vested stake in the outcome. From campaign finance laws that govern how money is spent on advertising to the regulators who oversee consolidation rules, the media industry has a distinct policy agenda, and with it, a political team to influence the result.

The top fundraisers for Clinton include lobbyists who serve the parent companies of CNN and MSNBC.

The National Association of Broadcasters, a trade group that represents the television station industry, has lobbyists who are fundraising for both Clinton and Republican candidate Marco Rubio.

Presidential campaigns are obligated by law to send the Federal Election Commission a list of lobbyists who serve as “bundlers,” collecting hundreds of individual checks on behalf of a candidate’s campaign.

CNN’s parent company, Time Warner, is represented on Capitol Hill by Steve Elmendorf, an adviser to Clinton during her 2008 campaign, who is also known as “one of Washington’s top lobbyists.” He’s lobbied on a number of issues important for media companies like CNN, including direct-to-consumer advertising policy.


https://theintercept.com/2015/10/29/med ... sidential/

I thought everyone knew this. It's been posted multiple times in these threads, there is a clear conflict of interest that is ignored.


And we should care what Lee Fang writes in billionaire Pierre Omidyar's The Intercept why?
There is nothing so absurd that some philosopher will not say it - Cicero.

Traditionally these are questions for philosophy, but philosophy is dead - Stephen Hawking
User avatar
Oldskeptic
 
Posts: 7395
Age: 67
Male

Print view this post

PreviousNext

Return to News, Politics & Current Affairs

Who is online

Users viewing this topic: No registered users and 1 guest