Ongoing interventions in Syria.

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Re: Ongoing interventions in Syria.

#141  Postby Mike_L » Apr 15, 2018 6:11 pm

More chemical attack fakery and/or chemical false flag attacks in Syria are practically guaranteed to happen...

US won’t pull out troops from Syria until goals accomplished – UN envoy Haley

The US will not pull its troops out of Syria until its goals are accomplished there, Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley said. This comes after Washington carried out airstrikes in Syria in response to an alleged chemical attack.
US currently has over 2,000 troops in Syria and a number of contractors.

While it is America’s goals to see the troops come home, “we are not going to leave until we know we have accomplished those things,” she told Fox News Sunday.

Haley added that the US wants to ensure that chemical weapons are not used in a way that is of risk to US interests, Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS) is defeated, and Iran’s actions are monitored.“Be very clear, if we leave, when we leave, it will be because we know that everything is moving forward,” Haley added.
...

Full text at:
https://www.rt.com/usa/424204-us-troops-syria-pull-haley/

The original reason that the US cited as justification for the coalition's illegal presence in Syria was the defeat of ISIS. Now it's to see that "Iran’s actions are monitored". So they're giving themselves carte blanche to make it up as they go along.

At the same time...

Syria air strikes: US still 'locked and loaded' for new chemical attacks

BBC News
15 April 2018

President Donald Trump has warned Syria's government the US is "locked and loaded" to strike again if it carries out chemical attacks.
...

Full text at:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-43771840

...which makes one wonder: How long will it be before 'Assad' once again gases his own people in an area from which combatants have already been cleared by means of conventional warfare?

The 'red line' on chemical weapons 2018 = Iraq WMD 2003.
And it'll carry on until the original objective (which spans successive White House administrations) is achieved... or until Russia is provoked into direct conflict with US forces.
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Re: Ongoing interventions in Syria.

#142  Postby Alan C » Apr 15, 2018 7:33 pm

It seems reporting on certain Russian involvement in Syria [read mercs] causes you to commit suicide by falling off balcony in Russia so add another journalist to the list. Probably adds a bit of incentive to RT journos to keep running Putin's talking points.

http://www.businessinsider.com/maxim-bo ... oup-2018-4
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Re: Ongoing interventions in Syria.

#143  Postby GrahamH » Apr 15, 2018 7:39 pm

Mike_L wrote:
GrahamH wrote:
Mike_L wrote:By :this: reasoning, it would be perfectly acceptable for Russia to launch missile attacks on Porton Down... or, hell, any British university with a toxicology department... you know, just to be on the safe side.
They won't, of course, because it would mean a major war.

You mised the obvious criteria. Only if the UK was killing civilians with WMDs.

Russia claimed as far back as 2013 that "third countries" (i.e. coalition countries) in Afghanistan were training Syrian rebels in the use of chemical weapons...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CTcnzWSqTC0

Needless to say, most here will reject that as "Russian propaganda". Given the history of coalition involvement in the Middle East, I'm slightly more inclined to believe that it's true.


Which is beside the point of when a university might be a legitimate target.
Why do you think that?
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Re: Ongoing interventions in Syria.

#144  Postby fisherman » Apr 15, 2018 9:48 pm

Mike_L wrote:
fisherman wrote:The OPCW-UN Joint Investigative Mechanism attributed the Syrian state with responsibility for the sarin attack at Khan Shaykhun in April last year. Their investigative mandate to continue working in Syria was vetoed by Russia last year, so at present, there is no recognised body in Syria that both sides have sanctioned with the authority to attribute blame for chemical weapons attacks.

As already mentioned earlier in the thread, Russia rejected the findings of the Joint Investigative Mechanism (JIM) of the UN for very good reasons...
Moscow believes that JIM’s investigations were full of “systemic deficiencies” and speculations, lacked hard evidence, while its conclusions were often drawn from statements made by questionable sources. The main point of contention is that the team did not honor the basic chain-of-custody principle, which required OPCW to obtain on-site biomedical and environmental samples.
https://www.rt.com/news/416794-un-syria-chemical-probe-nebenzia/


https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/s-1510-2017_e_.pdf
It is to be noted that the use of sarin or a sarin-like substance is not questioned. This is also evident from the position of the Government of the Syrian Arab Republic which provided to the FFM its own information and materials as evidence.

However, the biomedical specimens, of which the FFM had full custody, provided incontrovertible evidence that people were exposed to sarin or a sarin-like substance.

https://www.un.org/press/en/2017/sc13060.doc.htm
In‑depth laboratory study into the chemistry of the sarin had revealed that the nerve gas was very likely to have been made from the same precursor chemical that had come from the original stockpile of Syria, based on unique markers. He said the leadership panel was confident that when taken together, all those elements and others constituted clear evidence that Syria was responsible for the use of sarin at Khan Shaykhun.


Unique markers tying the sarin used directly to the government stockpile.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-syria-crisis-chemicalweapons-exclusiv/exclusive-tests-link-syrian-government-stockpile-to-largest-sarin-attack-sources-idUKKBN1FJ0NS
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Re: Ongoing interventions in Syria.

#145  Postby Mike_L » Apr 16, 2018 7:03 am

GrahamH wrote:
Mike_L wrote:
GrahamH wrote:
Mike_L wrote:By :this: reasoning, it would be perfectly acceptable for Russia to launch missile attacks on Porton Down... or, hell, any British university with a toxicology department... you know, just to be on the safe side.
They won't, of course, because it would mean a major war.

You mised the obvious criteria. Only if the UK was killing civilians with WMDs.

Russia claimed as far back as 2013 that "third countries" (i.e. coalition countries) in Afghanistan were training Syrian rebels in the use of chemical weapons...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CTcnzWSqTC0

Needless to say, most here will reject that as "Russian propaganda". Given the history of coalition involvement in the Middle East, I'm slightly more inclined to believe that it's true.


Which is beside the point of when a university might be a legitimate target.

Quite so. I don't believe that there's legitimacy... and that includes the case of the missile attack on the Higher Institute for Applied Sciences and Technology in Damascus.
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Re: Ongoing interventions in Syria.

#146  Postby Mike_L » Apr 16, 2018 8:21 am

fisherman wrote:
[Reveal] Spoiler: compressed
Mike_L wrote:
fisherman wrote:The OPCW-UN Joint Investigative Mechanism attributed the Syrian state with responsibility for the sarin attack at Khan Shaykhun in April last year. Their investigative mandate to continue working in Syria was vetoed by Russia last year, so at present, there is no recognised body in Syria that both sides have sanctioned with the authority to attribute blame for chemical weapons attacks.

As already mentioned earlier in the thread, Russia rejected the findings of the Joint Investigative Mechanism (JIM) of the UN for very good reasons...
Moscow believes that JIM’s investigations were full of “systemic deficiencies” and speculations, lacked hard evidence, while its conclusions were often drawn from statements made by questionable sources. The main point of contention is that the team did not honor the basic chain-of-custody principle, which required OPCW to obtain on-site biomedical and environmental samples.
https://www.rt.com/news/416794-un-syria-chemical-probe-nebenzia/


https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/s-1510-2017_e_.pdf
It is to be noted that the use of sarin or a sarin-like substance is not questioned. This is also evident from the position of the Government of the Syrian Arab Republic which provided to the FFM its own information and materials as evidence.

However, the biomedical specimens, of which the FFM had full custody, provided incontrovertible evidence that people were exposed to sarin or a sarin-like substance.

https://www.un.org/press/en/2017/sc13060.doc.htm
In‑depth laboratory study into the chemistry of the sarin had revealed that the nerve gas was very likely to have been made from the same precursor chemical that had come from the original stockpile of Syria, based on unique markers. He said the leadership panel was confident that when taken together, all those elements and others constituted clear evidence that Syria was responsible for the use of sarin at Khan Shaykhun.


Unique markers tying the sarin used directly to the government stockpile.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-syria-crisis-chemicalweapons-exclusiv/exclusive-tests-link-syrian-government-stockpile-to-largest-sarin-attack-sources-idUKKBN1FJ0NS


From the Reuters article:
...
Smithson and other sources familiar with the matter said it would have been virtually impossible for the rebels to carry out a coordinated, large-scale strike with poisonous munitions, even if they had been able to steal the chemicals from the government’s stockpile.

“I don’t think there is a cat in hell’s chance that rebels or Islamic State were responsible for the Aug. 21 Ghouta attack,” said Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, an independent specialist in biological and chemical weapons.

The U.N.-OPCW inquiry, which was disbanded in November after being blocked by Syria’s ally Russia at the U.N. Security Council, also found that Islamic State had used the less toxic blistering agent sulphur mustard gas on a small scale in Syria.

The Ghouta attack, by comparison, was textbook chemical warfare, Smithson and de Bretton-Gordon said, perfectly executed by forces trained to handle sarin, a toxin which is more difficult to use because it must be mixed just before delivery.
...

Except that it is known that the rebels have used sarin...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-crisis-un/u-n-has-testimony-that-syrian-rebels-used-sarin-gas-investigator-idUSBRE94409Z20130505
...likely stolen from the government stockpile or captured in areas that the rebels overran.

...
Surface-to-surface rockets delivered hundreds of litres of sarin in perfect weather conditions that made them as lethal as possible: low temperatures and wind in the early hours of the morning, when the gas would remain concentrated and kill sleeping victims, many of them children.

Pre-attack air raids with conventional bombs shattered windows and doors and drove people into shelters where the heavy poison seeped down into underground hiding places. Aerial bombing afterwards sought to destroy the evidence.

The large quantity of chemicals used, along with radar images of rocket traces showing they originated from Syrian Brigade positions, are further proof that the rebels could not have carried out the Ghouta attack, the experts said.
...


The official version of the 2013 Ghouta attacks has been questioned by veteran journalist Seymour Hersh. At the time, his thesis was dismissed as conspiracy theory nonsense. However, two years later...

The Ghouta chemical attack and the unraveling of Ankara's official story

By Neil Clark

It was the chemical weapons attack that so nearly led to direct war between the US, the UK, France and the Syrian government; a war which most likely would have delivered the whole of Syria to IS and Al-Qaeda extremists.
The horrific Ghouta attack of August 21, 2013, which killed hundreds of civilians, including many children, was blamed on President Assad and his government by Western political leaders and elite media commentators.
...


...
But now Turkish MP Eren Erdem has told RT that Islamic State terrorists, then going under the name of Iraqi Al-Qaeda, received all the necessary materials to produce deadly sarin gas via Turkey.

Erdem, who is now being charged with treason for his comments, revealed that an investigation by Turkish police was started but then the case was closed, and all the suspects were released near the Turkish/Syrian border. He accused the Turkish authorities of a high-level cover up.

The Turkish MP says the evidence shows that IS, and not the Syrian government, was responsible for the Ghouta attacks.

“This attack was conducted just days before the sarin operation in Turkey. It’s a high probability that this attack was carried out with those basic materials shipped through Turkey. It is said the regime forces are responsible, but the indictment says it’s ISIS. UN inspectors went to the site but they couldn’t find any evidence. But in this indictment, we’ve found the evidence. We know who used the sarin gas, and our government knows it too,” Erdem said.

It’s not just Erdem’s testimony that challenges the official version of events. US experts do too. A Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) report by former UN weapons inspector Richard Lloyd and Professor Theodor Postol challenged the intelligence on which US claims against the Syrian government were made.

They revealed that the range of the rocket which was supposed to have carried the nerve gas was too short to have been launched from government-controlled areas.

“The Syrian improvised chemical munitions that were used in the August 21 nerve gas attack in Damascus have a range of about two kilometers. This indicates that these munitions could not possibly have been fired at East Ghouta from the ‘heart’ or the eastern edge of the Syrian government controlled area in the intelligence map published by the White House on August 30th 2013,” the report concluded.

The report pointed out that all the possible launching points for the rocket were in rebel-controlled areas.

“My view when I started this process was that it couldn’t be anything but the Syrian government behind the attack,” said the report's co-author, Professor Postol. “But now I’m not sure of anything. The administration narrative was not even close to reality. Our intelligence cannot possibly be correct.”
...

Full text at:
https://www.rt.com/op-ed/326111-ghouta-chemical-attack-turkey/

The official version of the later Khan Sheikhoun attack has also been challenged...

MIT expert claims latest chemical weapons attack in Syria was staged

Theodore Postol of MIT says there is no concrete evidence linking Assad to the attack.

By Tareq Haddad

A leading weapons academic has claimed that the Khan Sheikhoun nerve agent attack in Syria was staged, raising questions about who was responsible.

Theodore Postol, a professor emeritus at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), issued a series of three reports in response to the White House's finding that Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad perpetrated the attack on 4 April.

He concluded that the US government's report does not provide any "concrete" evidence that Assad was responsible, adding it was more likely that the attack was perpetrated by players on the ground.

Postol said: "I have reviewed the [White House's] document carefully, and I believe it can be shown, without doubt, that the document does not provide any evidence whatsoever that the US government has concrete knowledge that the government of Syria was the source of the chemical attack in Khan Sheikhoun, Syria at roughly 6am to 7am on 4 April, 2017.

"In fact, a main piece of evidence that is cited in the document point to an attack that was executed by individuals on the ground, not from an aircraft, on the morning of 4 April.

"This conclusion is based on an assumption made by the White House when it cited the source of the sarin release and the photographs of that source. My own assessment is that the source was very likely tampered with or staged, so no serious conclusion could be made from the photographs cited by the White House."

The image Postol refers to is that of a crater containing a shell inside, which is said to have contained the sarin gas.

His analysis of the shell suggests that it could not have been dropped from an airplane as the damage of the casing is inconsistent from an aerial explosion. Instead, Postol said it was more likely that an explosive charge was laid upon the shell containing sarin, before being detonated.
...


...
In his latest reports, Postol hit out at what he says is a "politicisation" of intelligence findings.

Postol said: "No competent analyst would miss the fact that the alleged sarin canister was forcefully crushed from above, rather than exploded by a munition within it.

"All of these highly amateurish mistakes indicate that this White House report, like the earlier Obama White House Report [from Ghouta in 2013], was not properly vetted by the intelligence community as claimed.
...

Full text at:
https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/mit-expert-claims-latest-chemical-weapons-attack-syria-was-staged-1617267
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Re: Ongoing interventions in Syria.

#147  Postby felltoearth » Apr 16, 2018 12:18 pm

Alan C wrote:It seems reporting on certain Russian involvement in Syria [read mercs] causes you to commit suicide by falling off balcony in Russia so add another journalist to the list. Probably adds a bit of incentive to RT journos to keep running Putin's talking points.

http://www.businessinsider.com/maxim-bo ... oup-2018-4

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Re: Ongoing interventions in Syria.

#148  Postby fisherman » Apr 16, 2018 1:01 pm

Good video interview with the head of JIM defending the integrity of the JIM process, and refuting the specific claims made against it by Russia.

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/webtv/reports/2017/11/09/UN-Joint-Investigative-Mechanism-head-responds-to-criticism-over-Syria-gas-probe.html

Thanks for the discussion Mike, but I'm done with following you down these rabbit holes. I think your flat wrong in defending Assad, and in some convoluted way, blaming the west for these atrocities.
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Re: Ongoing interventions in Syria.

#149  Postby Mike_L » Apr 16, 2018 2:38 pm

Thanks, fisherman. That's a very interesting video. I think that Edmond Mulet gives credible testimony, leaving little doubt about the origin of the sarin used at Khan Sheikhoun. Opponents argue that it's because the rebels used sarin stolen from the government stockpile. They don't claim that the rebels dug a crater to implicate the Syrian airforce. The crater, they say, was left by the impact and explosion of a conventional bomb dropped by a Syrian airforce plane. Rebels then supposedly planted a sarin-containing munitions canister in the crater and detonated a bomb of their own on top of it, thereby dispersing the lethal gas. The fashion in which the canister is deformed, says MIT's Theodore Postol (post above), is consistent with this theory.
Which is more convincing? Asking the "cui bono?" question, I'm still inclined to believe that the chemical attacks are being faked by the anti-Assad rebels. Assad himself has nothing to gain -- and everything to lose -- by conducting them, whereas the rebels gain if they induce stepped-up coalition involvement in Syria.

fisherman wrote:Thanks for the discussion Mike, but I'm done with following you down these rabbit holes.

I respect that. And even if I don't agree with your position, I appreciate the diligence and sincerity of your posts.

I think your flat wrong in defending Assad, and in some convoluted way, blaming the west for these atrocities.

Assad is a monster, no doubt about it. (I've said so before).
But the greater atrocity, IMO, is the broader war. It's an atrocity that follows hot on the heels of those committed against Iraq and Libya. It's a conflict that has been stoked and also perpetuated (see here and here) by Western powers intent on regime change.

Ultimately, we'll have to "agree to disagree". :thumbup:
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Re: Ongoing interventions in Syria.

#150  Postby fisherman » Apr 16, 2018 5:08 pm

Mike_L wrote:Thanks, fisherman. That's a very interesting video. I think that Edmond Mulet gives credible testimony, leaving little doubt about the origin of the sarin used at Khan Sheikhoun. Opponents argue that it's because the rebels used sarin stolen from the government stockpile. They don't claim that the rebels dug a crater to implicate the Syrian airforce. The crater, they say, was left by the impact and explosion of a conventional bomb dropped by a Syrian airforce plane. Rebels then supposedly planted a sarin-containing munitions canister in the crater and detonated a bomb of their own on top of it, thereby dispersing the lethal gas. The fashion in which the canister is deformed, says MIT's Theodore Postol (post above), is consistent with this theory.
Which is more convincing? Asking the "cui bono?" question, I'm still inclined to believe that the chemical attacks are being faked by the anti-Assad rebels. Assad himself has nothing to gain -- and everything to lose -- by conducting them, whereas the rebels gain if they induce stepped-up coalition involvement in Syria.

fisherman wrote:Thanks for the discussion Mike, but I'm done with following you down these rabbit holes.

I respect that. And even if I don't agree with your position, I appreciate the diligence and sincerity of your posts.

I think your flat wrong in defending Assad, and in some convoluted way, blaming the west for these atrocities.

Assad is a monster, no doubt about it. (I've said so before).
But the greater atrocity, IMO, is the broader war. It's an atrocity that follows hot on the heels of those committed against Iraq and Libya. It's a conflict that has been stoked and also perpetuated (see here and here) by Western powers intent on regime change.

Ultimately, we'll have to "agree to disagree". :thumbup:


Against the tide, I think yours is the tougher course to chart, Mike.

Fair winds :thumbup:
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Re: Ongoing interventions in Syria.

#151  Postby ronmcd » Apr 16, 2018 11:34 pm

Labour? Abstaining? What's unusual about that?

Oh. It was their own motion.

Cannot for the life of me understand Labour’s position tonight. They spent all day agreeing with us on the need for proper and meaningful parliamentary debates and votes, and then abstain on their own debate when the SNP forces a vote. Feeble.

https://twitter.com/StewartMcDonald/sta ... 1739248643
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Re: Ongoing interventions in Syria.

#153  Postby mrjonno » Apr 17, 2018 9:09 am

ronmcd wrote:Labour? Abstaining? What's unusual about that?

Oh. It was their own motion.

Cannot for the life of me understand Labour’s position tonight. They spent all day agreeing with us on the need for proper and meaningful parliamentary debates and votes, and then abstain on their own debate when the SNP forces a vote. Feeble.

https://twitter.com/StewartMcDonald/sta ... 1739248643



Why have a debate when most of it would be Labour MP's shouting at other Labour MP's with the Tories standing around laughing at the show?

Corbyn has never supported military action in his entire life so what's the point in a debate
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Re: Ongoing interventions in Syria.

#154  Postby fisherman » Apr 17, 2018 3:45 pm

ronmcd wrote:Well, Robert Fisk's report is getting some fevered re-tweeting on social media ... worth a read.

Exclusive: Robert Fisk visits the Syria clinic at the centre of a global crisis


Cart before the horse, I reckon.

It seems a little odd that reporters can go there, and make headlines, but the OPCW is blocked from doing the sciency bit to prove it one way or t'other.
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Re: Ongoing interventions in Syria.

#155  Postby Mike_L » Apr 21, 2018 11:01 am

Western air strikes in Syria illegal - German parliament experts

2018-04-20

The air strikes unleashed in Syria by Western allies in mid-April were a violation of international law, jurists at the German parliament said in a report on Friday.

"The use of military force against a state, as a sanction against the violation of an international convention by this state, is an infringement of the prohibition of the use of violence in international law," said the Bundestag experts in a reply to a question filed by the far-left Die Linke party.

The Bundestag experts referred in particular to the United Nations declaration from their 1970 general assembly which stresses "the duty of States to refrain in their international relations from military, political, economic or any other form of coercion aimed against the political independence or territorial integrity of any State".

The UN Security Council had also rejected armed retaliation, calling it "incompatible with the objectives and the principles of the United Nations".

The legal motive put forward by Britain, which joined in the air strikes alongside the United States and France, was also "not convincing", said the Bundestag experts.
...

Full text at:
https://www.news24.com/World/News/western-air-strikes-in-syria-illegal-german-parliament-experts-20180420
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Re: Ongoing interventions in Syria.

#156  Postby Scot Dutchy » Apr 21, 2018 11:13 am

I dont think Trump bothers much about international law.
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Re: Ongoing interventions in Syria.

#157  Postby GrahamH » Apr 21, 2018 1:15 pm

Relevant commentary from Patrick Cockburn in the Independent

We should be sceptical of far-away governments who claim to know what is happening on the ground in Syria

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/sy ... 14616.html
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Re: Ongoing interventions in Syria.

#158  Postby Arjan Dirkse » Apr 21, 2018 4:17 pm

It's sort of a trite point, governments sometimes aren't right. Does it mean we should be skeptical of everything any government claims? (Or indeed every claim, including those by reporters like the one who wrote the article) Or is skepticism just something we reserve for everything that doesn't agree with our preconceived notions?
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Re: Ongoing interventions in Syria.

#159  Postby GrahamH » Apr 21, 2018 4:37 pm

Arjan Dirkse wrote:It's sort of a trite point, governments sometimes aren't right. Does it mean we should be skeptical of everything any government claims? (Or indeed every claim, including those by reporters like the one who wrote the article) Or is skepticism just something we reserve for everything that doesn't agree with our preconceived notions?

Perhaps we should be sceptical when governments instantly claim to know exactly who is responsible for what sort of attack in a distant war zone and just where the chemical weapons plants are for a missile strike. Perhaps we should be sceptical when journalists on the ground report no chemical attack.

That is not to say we should disbelieve what governments say.
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Re: Ongoing interventions in Syria.

#160  Postby Scot Dutchy » Apr 21, 2018 5:04 pm

Trust a government?
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