The start of peace
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The Russians could very easily have found themselves bogged down in something reminiscent of their ill-fated Afghan expedition, facing the same array of jihadists backed by the Saudis and their allies - in all probability some of the actual veterans from the Afghan academy of jihadism.
President Assad, flushed with borrowed success, may have wanted to go all the way, apparently imagining his minority Alawite-dominated government could simply re-impose its control over the Sunni majority as though the past five years and more than a quarter of a million deaths had not happened.
But the Russians clearly judged that to be a disaster course.
President Putin has done something the Americans could not have: Recalibrated the situation on the ground, and set himself up as a key player in the settlement game.
Weaver wrote:Not so much a catalyst for peace, as the end of support for Assad - he's being left on his own, and will now slide into eventual defeat as Putin realizes he cannot sustain the effort to keep him afloat.
aliihsanasl wrote:Turkey would be very disturbed by that development but on the other hand I can't understand what was in their mind when they weakened the regime in Syria. What made in Iraq by USA and Turkey from the beginning rejected that in the name of Iraq's land unity, done in the Syria by Turkey.
We undermined our own foreign policy principle for the southern border.
Scot Dutchy wrote:aliihsanasl wrote:Turkey would be very disturbed by that development but on the other hand I can't understand what was in their mind when they weakened the regime in Syria. What made in Iraq by USA and Turkey from the beginning rejected that in the name of Iraq's land unity, done in the Syria by Turkey.
We undermined our own foreign policy principle for the southern border.
Just why cannot Turkey live with a Kurdish state?
The negotiations have been bogged down on a series of issues and one delegate said it was up to Kerry and Putin to create a breakthrough.
"We're waiting for a U.S.-Russian accord to solve the (key) issue once and for all. Until they resolve it this process will drag on," Randa Kassis, who heads up a Moscow-backed opposition group, said.
While the United States want Assad to step aside, Russia says only the Syrian people can decide his fate at the ballot box and has bristled at any talk of regime change.
Kerry is holding talks with Putin at the Kremlin on Thursday, in a meeting arranged after the Russian leader's surprise announcement on March 14 that he was partially withdrawing his forces from Syria.
"The Secretary would like to now really hear where President Putin is in his thinking ... on a political transition" in Syria, the official said as Kerry arrived in Moscow.
"Obviously what we are looking for, and what we have been looking for, is how we are going to transition Syria away from Assad's leadership," the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Following the March 22 terrorist attacks in Brussels, which killed over 30 people and injured hundreds, Russian officials responded by calling for unity in opposing the Islamic State (IS). They proposed burying the hatchet on all other issues to concentrate on fighting terrorism.
It is highly important for the Kremlin to prove, in practical terms, that the principle of concert of great powers works and may help solve complicated international issues. A bilateral concert of the US and Russia—resembling the Cold War superpowers’ dealings—is seen as especially good: it makes Moscow an equal to Washington and creates tensions between the US and its various international allies. The visit this week to Moscow of US Secretary of State John Kerry to hold talks with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, along with a late night meeting with Putin, is seen as significant. The official Kremlin-controlled media express hope of an emerging understanding between Moscow and Washington, though “any real breakthrough may happen only after a new administration is in the White House next year” (RIA Novosti, March 24).
Mike_L wrote:Weaver wrote:Not so much a catalyst for peace, as the end of support for Assad - he's being left on his own, and will now slide into eventual defeat as Putin realizes he cannot sustain the effort to keep him afloat.
Perhaps correct. Putin may have bought the Syrian president some time -- but, in all likelihood, Assad's days are numbered.
In the absence of a Russian force in Syria, Washington will probably redouble its efforts to topple the country's mostly secular government. The so-called "moderates" that the US and its allies have been openly backing will reveal their true colours (as happened in Libya), and Syria will be another Washington "success story", the scale of which will be measured in the number of refugees flooding into Europe.
The Kremlin said on Thursday that a report by the al-Hayat newspaper on an agreement between Russia and the United States on the future of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was not true.
The newspaper reported that U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry had told several Arab countries that Russia and the U.S. reached an understanding on the future of Syria's peace process, including Assad's departure to another country at some unspecified stage.
International investigators have amassed the strongest evidence “since Nuremberg” for the prosecution of Bashar al-Assad and his allies for war crimes, smuggling 600,000 pages of official documents out of Syria.
This trove - weighing several tons - includes the records of a secret committee of security chiefs placed in charge of crushing the revolt. Another 500,000 pages are still inside Syria, awaiting safe transit out of the country.
The evidence is being held in an undisclosed European city by the Commission for International Justice and Accountability, an organisation of lawyers and investigators partly funded by the British Government.
The most striking evidence concerns Assad’s response to the mass protests against his rule that swept Syria from 2011 onwards. He appointed a “Central Crisis Management Cell” and gave the security chiefs on this committee supreme responsibility for suppressing the unrest. The cell held daily meetings in Damascus, chaired by Mohammad Said Bekheitan, the second most senior member of the ruling Ba’ath party.
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