GrahamH wrote:I wasn't suggesting that EEA was "remain by the back door", just that might not resolve what needs to be resolved.

No doubt resistance can increase, but we do have a prospective party leader pledging to "fight Brexit tooth and nail" and there is a legal challenge underway AFAIK. The PM is stalling on Art.50 and lots of people are still far more engaged with how to not Brexit, or how to not deliver what was seemingly offered by Leave than how to do it.

I'm guessing most Remainers would want to avoid serious Leave protest even more.

GrahamH wrote:Theresa May will trigger Brexit negotiations without Commons vote

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08 ... mmons-vot/

GrahamH wrote:Theresa May will trigger Brexit negotiations without Commons vote

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08 ... mmons-vot/

Byron wrote:MPs in safe seats won't have to worry, but it would of course affect those in marginals and not-so-safe seats. And the MPs in safe seats of course want their parties to win elections.

I doubt there's any mood to openly block it in Westminster. String it out and let events take their course, on the other hand ...

As the tables show, over three quarters of Conservative-held constituencies voted to Leave, and seven in ten Labour-held constituencies. Although Labour as a party is very much more favourable to the EU than the Conservative party, the same cannot be said of the constituencies it holds.

421 out of 574 English and Welsh constituencies probably voted to Leave
Of these, 270 English and Welsh constituencies almost definitely voted to Leave
152 constituencies probably voted to Remain.
Of these, half (76) almost definitely voted to Remain.
MPs make decisions based on many factors. Constituency opinion is one of these. The results of last Thursday already made it clear that a majority of voters in the UK want to leave the European Union. In this blog post, I’ve tried to demonstrate a claim that almost certainly follows on from that — that a majority of constituencies also favoured Leaving.

GrahamH wrote:What is a safe seat if you piss off 60% of your parties voters? A 20% majority doesn't look so safe any more. The obvious beneficiary would be UKIP. They had 120 second place results in 2015. I can't work out the numbers just now, but it seems a lot of MPs might lose their seats if they were to vote against Art 50.

It seems that a significant majority of both Labour and Conservative constituencies voted leave.

As the tables show, over three quarters of Conservative-held constituencies voted to Leave, and seven in ten Labour-held constituencies. Although Labour as a party is very much more favourable to the EU than the Conservative party, the same cannot be said of the constituencies it holds.

That's actually a very interesting analysis.

421 out of 574 English and Welsh constituencies probably voted to Leave
Of these, 270 English and Welsh constituencies almost definitely voted to Leave
152 constituencies probably voted to Remain.
Of these, half (76) almost definitely voted to Remain.
MPs make decisions based on many factors. Constituency opinion is one of these. The results of last Thursday already made it clear that a majority of voters in the UK want to leave the European Union. In this blog post, I’ve tried to demonstrate a claim that almost certainly follows on from that — that a majority of constituencies also favoured Leaving.

https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/most- ... .y1in47s8c

Byron wrote:Expect the Trump stump's made Farage toxic even among many Leave voters!

GrahamH wrote:Have you seen any polling of leave voters for approval of trump? How do the demographics compare? Maybe there is some reason behind it. Maybe Farage just hopes to get pally with the next president.

The secret of Trump’s success should be familiar to Brits because his core supporters are precisely the people who tend to support Ukip. Low-educated, low-income whites living in areas of high unemployment: precisely the sort of people who can be written off as yesterday’s men (and they are, overwhelmingly, men). They represent a very modern and fast growing phenomenon: the losers of gloablisation. If the oyster bars of New York and London are filled with globalisation’s winners, then its victims can be found in American rustbelt states and Britain’s seaside towns. They see the economy evolving in a way that leaves them behind. The new system, they fear, is rigged against them.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05 ... n-the-vot/

Byron wrote:

GrahamH wrote:Have you seen any polling of leave voters for approval of trump? How do the demographics compare? Maybe there is some reason behind it. Maybe Farage just hopes to get pally with the next president.

Not yet, no, but would be fascinating to see, and a feather in Remain's cap if support were high.

Fascianting exchange over on Richard North's blog, between the author and John Mills, chairman of Labour Leave. Blurb: Mills makes an effort to understand the complexity of international trade, but is still wedded to a Leave fantasy position.