~*~Unofficial 2016 US Presidential Election Thread~*~

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Re: ~*~Unofficial 2016 US Presidential Election Thread~*~

#621  Postby Teague » Feb 10, 2016 11:27 am

Amazing isn't it? Given 2 candidates that are going against the establishment there's that many small minded, hateful people in NH that they voted for Trump instead of Sanders. NH should be shamed, massively for begin a bunch of cunts or for putting up with a bunch of cunts.
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Re: ~*~Unofficial 2016 US Presidential Election Thread~*~

#622  Postby ScholasticSpastic » Feb 10, 2016 1:46 pm

Teague wrote:Amazing isn't it? Given 2 candidates that are going against the establishment there's that many small minded, hateful people in NH that they voted for Trump instead of Sanders. NH should be shamed, massively for begin a bunch of cunts or for putting up with a bunch of cunts.

This makes no sense. It was the primary. They can't vote fore a Republican INSTEAD of the Democrat during a primary because primaries are Republicans running against other Republicans and Democrats running against other Democrats. I agree that Trump's win was indicative of an outsize cunt population, but this has nothing to do with how many people support Sanders there.
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Re: ~*~Unofficial 2016 US Presidential Election Thread~*~

#623  Postby GT2211 » Feb 10, 2016 3:42 pm

Some quick takes:

1)The GOP is a hot mess. Just when it seemed Rubio may be the one to get the establishment to rally around him, Christie sinks his campaign and he has a terrible finish in NH. I think Rand dropped out too soon. Will it be Kasich? The return of Jeb!?
2)Carson's out next right? Right?


3) It was a good night for Bern. He at one point had a 20 point aggregate poll advantage in the state, but the tracking polls all showed tightening in the last couple days. I thought going into the night that anything <10% victory would be a disaster, but if he could hit 60+ it would be a good night for Bernie.

4)This is really where the challenge begins for Bernie. 538 and Cook collab'd on creating a scorecard based on support in national survey's, demographics such as race, ideology etc... then used that information to model how well each candidate needs to do to win 50% of the delegates. It gives candidates a slight bump in their home state and Bernie decent built in bump in caucus states.

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Re: ~*~Unofficial 2016 US Presidential Election Thread~*~

#624  Postby Shrunk » Feb 10, 2016 3:45 pm

GT2211 wrote: 4)This is really where the challenge begins for Bernie. 538 and Cook collab'd on creating a scorecard based on support in national survey's, demographics such as race, ideology etc... then used that information to model how well each candidate needs to do to win 50% of the delegates. It gives candidates a slight bump in their home state and Bernie decent built in bump in caucus states.

Image


OK, they just made that up, right? A dead heat? Come on.
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Re: ~*~Unofficial 2016 US Presidential Election Thread~*~

#625  Postby Shrunk » Feb 10, 2016 3:47 pm

ScholasticSpastic wrote:This makes no sense. It was the primary. They can't vote fore a Republican INSTEAD of the Democrat during a primary because primaries are Republicans running against other Republicans and Democrats running against other Democrats. I agree that Trump's win was indicative of an outsize cunt population, but this has nothing to do with how many people support Sanders there.


Although I did hear one CNN report that described undecided independent voters who were flipping between Trump and Sanders. FWIW. If such people actually exist, they should just be shot and put out of their misery.
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Re: ~*~Unofficial 2016 US Presidential Election Thread~*~

#626  Postby GT2211 » Feb 10, 2016 3:50 pm

Shrunk wrote:
GT2211 wrote: 4)This is really where the challenge begins for Bernie. 538 and Cook collab'd on creating a scorecard based on support in national survey's, demographics such as race, ideology etc... then used that information to model how well each candidate needs to do to win 50% of the delegates. It gives candidates a slight bump in their home state and Bernie decent built in bump in caucus states.

Image


OK, they just made that up, right? A dead heat? Come on.

?? Its not a projection of how they think the race will go, its a projection of how well each candidate needs to do in each state to break even based on their support by demographics and the demographics of the state
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Re: ~*~Unofficial 2016 US Presidential Election Thread~*~

#627  Postby Shrunk » Feb 10, 2016 4:06 pm

OK, I misunderstood. So we can follow along and see if their over or under what they would be expected to need. That's helpful. :thumbup:
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Re: ~*~Unofficial 2016 US Presidential Election Thread~*~

#628  Postby ScholasticSpastic » Feb 10, 2016 4:17 pm

Shrunk wrote:
Although I did hear one CNN report that described undecided independent voters who were flipping between Trump and Sanders. FWIW. If such people actually exist, they should just be shot and put out of their misery.

Some sort of weird political bipolar disorder? :crazy:
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Re: ~*~Unofficial 2016 US Presidential Election Thread~*~

#629  Postby BWE » Feb 10, 2016 4:30 pm

It's two ways to address the same root problem. Trump is, of all things, independent of the corporist dollar.
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Re: ~*~Unofficial 2016 US Presidential Election Thread~*~

#630  Postby r.c » Feb 10, 2016 4:33 pm

GT2211 wrote:Some quick takes:

1)The GOP is a hot mess. Just when it seemed Rubio may be the one to get the establishment to rally around him, Christie sinks his campaign and he has a terrible finish in NH. I think Rand dropped out too soon. Will it be Kasich? The return of Jeb!?
2)Carson's out next right? Right?


3) It was a good night for Bern. He at one point had a 20 point aggregate poll advantage in the state, but the tracking polls all showed tightening in the last couple days. I thought going into the night that anything <10% victory would be a disaster, but if he could hit 60+ it would be a good night for Bernie.

4)This is really where the challenge begins for Bernie. 538 and Cook collab'd on creating a scorecard based on support in national survey's, demographics such as race, ideology etc... then used that information to model how well each candidate needs to do to win 50% of the delegates. It gives candidates a slight bump in their home state and Bernie decent built in bump in caucus states.

Image


But doesn't Clinton already have a lead of 400 from the superdelegates?
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Re: ~*~Unofficial 2016 US Presidential Election Thread~*~

#631  Postby Willie71 » Feb 10, 2016 4:34 pm

Pulsar wrote:I just learned that this guy is also a presidential candidate. Seriously.

Image

He's probably less crazy than any republican candidate :)


As Bill Maher says, the boot on his head makes him seem not serious.



Otherwise, he's our version of Sarah Palin.
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Re: ~*~Unofficial 2016 US Presidential Election Thread~*~

#632  Postby CdesignProponentsist » Feb 10, 2016 5:55 pm

ScholasticSpastic wrote::doh: Oooh! Not a good idea to joke about black Americans and nooses. :yuk:

I know you didn't mean it that way, but there's still a lot of baggage around our history of strange fruit.

ETA: Sort of funny, maybe, in light of the Huffpo headline..... :shifty:


I think you are being overly sensitive. It was hilarious.
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Re: ~*~Unofficial 2016 US Presidential Election Thread~*~

#633  Postby CdesignProponentsist » Feb 10, 2016 6:09 pm

Shrunk wrote:Although I did hear one CNN report that described undecided independent voters who were flipping between Trump and Sanders. FWIW. If such people actually exist, they should just be shot and put out of their misery.


I imagine they look something like this...

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Re: ~*~Unofficial 2016 US Presidential Election Thread~*~

#634  Postby CdesignProponentsist » Feb 10, 2016 6:09 pm

Ratskep cloned my post.
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Re: ~*~Unofficial 2016 US Presidential Election Thread~*~

#635  Postby Willie71 » Feb 10, 2016 7:01 pm

Teague wrote:Amazing isn't it? Given 2 candidates that are going against the establishment there's that many small minded, hateful people in NH that they voted for Trump instead of Sanders. NH should be shamed, massively for begin a bunch of cunts or for putting up with a bunch of cunts.


This shows how low information many voters are. To not be able to immediately see a clear delineation of which candidate represents your personal philosophy shows how policy has been replaced by sound bite. It's simply ignorance that results in this bizarre issue.
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Re: ~*~Unofficial 2016 US Presidential Election Thread~*~

#636  Postby ScholasticSpastic » Feb 10, 2016 8:07 pm

CdesignProponentsist wrote:
I think you are being overly sensitive. It was hilarious.

Sensitive implies that I was offended. That isn't the case. I was being conscious of the potential to give offense, and aware of the basis for that potential offense. I think it's especially relevant on a forum where I've seen Ben Carson called a race traitor. :crazy:
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Re: ~*~Unofficial 2016 US Presidential Election Thread~*~

#637  Postby GT2211 » Feb 10, 2016 11:58 pm

r.c wrote:
GT2211 wrote:Some quick takes:

1)The GOP is a hot mess. Just when it seemed Rubio may be the one to get the establishment to rally around him, Christie sinks his campaign and he has a terrible finish in NH. I think Rand dropped out too soon. Will it be Kasich? The return of Jeb!?
2)Carson's out next right? Right?


3) It was a good night for Bern. He at one point had a 20 point aggregate poll advantage in the state, but the tracking polls all showed tightening in the last couple days. I thought going into the night that anything <10% victory would be a disaster, but if he could hit 60+ it would be a good night for Bernie.

4)This is really where the challenge begins for Bernie. 538 and Cook collab'd on creating a scorecard based on support in national survey's, demographics such as race, ideology etc... then used that information to model how well each candidate needs to do to win 50% of the delegates. It gives candidates a slight bump in their home state and Bernie decent built in bump in caucus states.

Image


But doesn't Clinton already have a lead of 400 from the superdelegates?

Yes. Bernie supporters might argue that a Bernie win would look a bit more backloaded than that.

But Hillary supporters would argue that the chart isn't even including super delegates. It takes 2,382 delegates to win the nomination.

Hillary has roughly 400 right now to Bernie's 11. One could argue that Bernie needs to do more than just match those targets, but exceed them by a decent amount to make up that advantage. If so Bern is pretty far behind and seems unlikely to make up any ground in NV or SC
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Re: ~*~Unofficial 2016 US Presidential Election Thread~*~

#638  Postby BWE » Feb 11, 2016 12:42 am

I bet he does a lot better in SC and NV than the polls suggest he will.
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Re: ~*~Unofficial 2016 US Presidential Election Thread~*~

#639  Postby Boyle » Feb 11, 2016 1:02 am

Shrunk wrote:
ScholasticSpastic wrote:This makes no sense. It was the primary. They can't vote fore a Republican INSTEAD of the Democrat during a primary because primaries are Republicans running against other Republicans and Democrats running against other Democrats. I agree that Trump's win was indicative of an outsize cunt population, but this has nothing to do with how many people support Sanders there.


Although I did hear one CNN report that described undecided independent voters who were flipping between Trump and Sanders. FWIW. If such people actually exist, they should just be shot and put out of their misery.

Just go read reddit's politics forum and you'll run into them. Some are accelerationists and think the world needs to be set aflame before anyone will change the system ie do what they want.
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Re: ~*~Unofficial 2016 US Presidential Election Thread~*~

#640  Postby CdesignProponentsist » Feb 11, 2016 2:34 am

ScholasticSpastic wrote:
CdesignProponentsist wrote:
I think you are being overly sensitive. It was hilarious.

Sensitive implies that I was offended. That isn't the case. I was being conscious of the potential to give offense, and aware of the basis for that potential offense. I think it's especially relevant on a forum where I've seen Ben Carson called a race traitor. :crazy:


Yeah, I prefer to not walk on eggshells for the overly sensitive and the nutcases and enjoy innocently intended comedy for what it is. ;)

If your purpose is to treat a specific group as equal, then avoiding comedy just because it may be misinterpreted by that group is working against that purpose.
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