The problem of induction

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The problem of induction

#1  Postby LIFE » Jul 01, 2010 4:11 pm

Has it been solved yet? :scratch:


David Hume
[...]If all matters of fact are based on causal relations, and all causal relations are found by induction, then induction must be shown to be valid somehow. He uses the fact that induction assumes a valid connection between the proposition "I have found that such an object has always been attended with such an effect" and the proposition "I foresee that other objects which are in appearance similar will be attended with similar effects."[8] One connects these two propositions not by reason, but by induction. This claim is supported by the same reasoning as that for causal relations above, and by the observation that even rationally inexperienced or inferior people can infer, for example, that touching fire causes pain. Hume challenges other philosophers to come up with a (deductive) reason for the connection. If he is right, then the justification of induction can be only inductive. But this begs the question; as induction is based on an assumption of the connection, it cannot itself explain the connection.


Karl Popper
Karl Popper, a philosopher of science, sought to resolve the problem of induction in the context of the scientific method. He argued that science does not rely on induction, but exclusively on deduction, by making the modus tollens argument form the centerpiece of his theory. Knowledge is gradually advanced as tests are made and failures are accounted for.

Wesley C. Salmon critiques Popper's falsifiability by arguing that in using corroborated theories, induction is being used. Salmon stated, "Modus tollens without corroboration is empty; modus tollens with corroboration is induction."


I didn't quote the other relevant sections but you can read it summerized here to get the full picture:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Problem_of_induction

Basically my question would be if we need some "component" of deductive reasoning to solve the "problem of induction"? I hope this is not a false dichotomy and I reckon there's also abductive reasoning although it seems to be fallacious.
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Re: The problem of induction

#2  Postby the PC apeman » Jul 01, 2010 4:36 pm

Induction seems to be a problem for those who hold to a correspondence theory of truth - which is problematic in itself. Science isn't reliant on correspondence to some ontological truth. It deals in coherence. Induction is a measure of coherence, not a problem.
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Re: The problem of induction

#3  Postby LIFE » Jul 01, 2010 5:03 pm

the PC apeman wrote:Induction seems to be a problem for those who hold to a correspondence theory of truth - which is problematic in itself. Science isn't reliant on correspondence to some ontological truth. It deals in coherence. Induction is a measure of coherence, not a problem.


I see.
Does science use deductive reasoning at some point?
At what point could we say something is true in an absolutist sense?
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Re: The problem of induction

#4  Postby the PC apeman » Jul 01, 2010 5:18 pm

Sure science can use deductive reasoning at some point, once premises are inductively established. It would be absolutist to say we can never say something is true in an absolutist sense. I can say that I am not aware of any such opportunities.
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Re: The problem of induction

#5  Postby LIFE » Jul 01, 2010 5:26 pm

But is it safe to say that we can only verify our perception of reality by the results inductive reasoning puts forth?
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Re: The problem of induction

#6  Postby the PC apeman » Jul 01, 2010 5:41 pm

What does it mean to verify our perception? Are you asking if our perception matches some ontological reality, or, does it mean that it coheres with all our other perceptions? For the latter I'm not sure your question makes sense.
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Re: The problem of induction

#7  Postby LIFE » Jul 01, 2010 5:54 pm

the PC apeman wrote:Are you asking if our perception matches some ontological reality.


Our progressive observations of nature through the scientific method match some ontological reality?
Does it make sense?
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Re: The problem of induction

#8  Postby the PC apeman » Jul 01, 2010 6:04 pm

LIFE wrote:
the PC apeman wrote:Are you asking if our perception matches some ontological reality.


Our progressive observations of nature through the scientific method match some ontological reality?
Does it make sense?

Well, you see you're resorting to a correspondence theory of truth there. So I'm at a bit of a loss to support statements that rely on positions I cannot support.
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Re: The problem of induction

#9  Postby LIFE » Jul 01, 2010 6:28 pm

the PC apeman wrote:
LIFE wrote:
the PC apeman wrote:Are you asking if our perception matches some ontological reality.


Our progressive observations of nature through the scientific method match some ontological reality?
Does it make sense?

Well, you see you're resorting to a correspondence theory of truth there. So I'm at a bit of a loss to support statements that rely on positions I cannot support.


I have to do a bit of reading as I'm pretty much unfamiliar with regards to theories of truth. So thanks for the pointer ;)
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Re: The problem of induction

#10  Postby Mick » Jul 01, 2010 7:44 pm

the PC apeman wrote:Induction seems to be a problem for those who hold to a correspondence theory of truth - which is problematic in itself. Science isn't reliant on correspondence to some ontological truth. It deals in coherence. Induction is a measure of coherence, not a problem.



Why think it's not a problem for the coherentists? Hume was attacking a line of inference, if i recall correctly. I don't see how this is significantly different with the coherentists.
Christ said, "I am the Truth"; he did not say "I am the custom." -- St. Toribio
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Re: The problem of induction

#11  Postby the PC apeman » Jul 01, 2010 7:59 pm

Mick wrote:
the PC apeman wrote:Induction seems to be a problem for those who hold to a correspondence theory of truth - which is problematic in itself. Science isn't reliant on correspondence to some ontological truth. It deals in coherence. Induction is a measure of coherence, not a problem.



Why think it's not a problem for the coherentists? Hume was attacking a line of inference, if i recall correctly. I don't see how this is significantly different with the coherentists.

If induction is an expression of coherence then induction isn't a problem for those who accept accept coherence as the basis of assigning truth value. Neither is the validity of induction itself being an inductive claim a problem, contrary to Hume, as it reduces to truth itself being a truth claim.
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Re: The problem of induction

#12  Postby LIFE » Jul 01, 2010 8:03 pm

the PC apeman wrote:
Mick wrote:
the PC apeman wrote:Induction seems to be a problem for those who hold to a correspondence theory of truth - which is problematic in itself. Science isn't reliant on correspondence to some ontological truth. It deals in coherence. Induction is a measure of coherence, not a problem.



Why think it's not a problem for the coherentists? Hume was attacking a line of inference, if i recall correctly. I don't see how this is significantly different with the coherentists.

If induction is an expression of coherence then induction isn't a problem for those who accept accept coherence as the basis of assigning truth value. Neither is the validity of induction itself being an inductive claim a problem, contrary to Hume, as it reduces to truth itself being a truth claim.


What is the position you support?
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Re: The problem of induction

#13  Postby the PC apeman » Jul 01, 2010 8:18 pm

As far as a theory of truth is concerned, I'd describe my position as a coherentist one. This stems from my having relegated ontology to the same dustbin as theology. Epistemologically, my preferences are best described as science with all the provisional and parsimonious goodness therein. I feel this all fits together quite well. But you'd expect that from a coherentist. ;)
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Re: The problem of induction

#14  Postby Mick » Jul 01, 2010 9:21 pm

the PC apeman wrote:
If induction is an expression of coherence then induction isn't a problem for those who accept accept coherence as the basis of assigning truth value. Neither is the validity of induction itself being an inductive claim a problem, contrary to Hume, as it reduces to truth itself being a truth claim.



induction is reduced to truth itself? what? what's the justification for induction in this coherentist model?
Christ said, "I am the Truth"; he did not say "I am the custom." -- St. Toribio
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Re: The problem of induction

#15  Postby Mick » Jul 01, 2010 9:25 pm

the PC apeman wrote:As far as a theory of truth is concerned, I'd describe my position as a coherentist one. This stems from my having relegated ontology to the same dustbin as theology. Epistemologically, my preferences are best described as science with all the provisional and parsimonious goodness therein. I feel this all fits together quite well. But you'd expect that from a coherentist. ;)



What understanding of ontology do you have? i don't see why, on my understanding, you'd throw it to the "dustbin". I'd like to know why you choose to do this.
Christ said, "I am the Truth"; he did not say "I am the custom." -- St. Toribio
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Re: The problem of induction

#16  Postby UndercoverElephant » Jul 01, 2010 9:29 pm

LIFE wrote:Has it been solved yet? :scratch:


No. :grin:
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Re: The problem of induction

#17  Postby VazScep » Jul 01, 2010 9:50 pm

Muggleton's proposal for general artificial intelligence involves searching for the shortest and fastest programs that model the input data. Short and fast define a probability distribution for solving the problem in the most efficient way. The result is systems that believe in induction.

Don't take that too seriously. For starters, human beings are not reducible to one algorithm.
Here we go again. First, we discover recursion.
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Re: The problem of induction

#18  Postby archibald » Jul 01, 2010 9:54 pm

In what way is the problem of induction an actual problem?
"It seems rather obvious that plants have free will. Don't know why that would be controversial."
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Re: The problem of induction

#19  Postby LIFE » Jul 01, 2010 10:20 pm

archibald wrote:In what way is the problem of induction an actual problem?


Formulation of the problem
In inductive reasoning, one makes a series of observations and infers a new claim based on them. For instance, from a series of observations that a woman walks her dog by the market at 8am on Monday, it seems valid to infer that next Monday she will do the same, or that, in general, the woman walks her dog by the market every Monday. That next Monday the woman walks by the market merely adds to the series of observations, it does not prove she will walk by the market every Monday. First of all, it is not certain, regardless of the number of observations, that the woman always walks by the market at 8am on Monday. In fact, Hume would even argue that we cannot claim it is "more probable", since this still requires the assumption that the past predicts the future. Second, the observations themselves do not establish the validity of inductive reasoning, except inductively.


But I guess it's more me having difficulties about putting it into correct context. Let me elaborate a bit:
It is said that whilst deductive philosophy can in itself be elegantly coherent it does not follow that a deductive theory or set of theories actually describe reality and could therefore be entirely untrue. Only with inductive reasoning you allow for false conclusions even though the premises are true, no?
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Re: The problem of induction

#20  Postby archibald » Jul 01, 2010 10:26 pm

So long as you don't conclude for certain that the woman will walk her dog, it seems ok to use induction.
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