Rumraket wrote:Just felt like dropping in because I remembered this article on pandas thumb:
http://pandasthumb.org/archives/2007/01 ... .html#more It specifically addresses the paper Axe cites(which funnily enough, is his own) in his bio-complexity.org paper.
Summary
To summarize, the claims that have been and will be made by ID proponents regarding protein evolution are not supported by Axe’s work. As I show, it is not appropriate to use the numbers Axe obtains to make inferences about the evolution of proteins and enzymes. Thus, this study does not support the conclusion that functional sequences are extremely isolated in sequence space, or that the evolution of new protein function is an impossibility that is beyond the capacity of random mutation and natural selection.
Oh well...
Axes paper is fine. What your article claims is that Axe didn't use the natural, but a modified protein. Yeah I know, and this very protein that has a smaller search space has been shown to be intractable by a random process. So imagine now, how a full protein would be tractable. Obviously even less. So your article makes an ironical mistake.
Anyway, here I found an article by a creation scientist. He does not do any work of his own, but cites others that did this same work as Axe did. He is quoted in this paper as well. It shows that Axes numbers are actually in the middle. Not to hign, not to low. Just righ.
http://creation.com/images/pdfs/tj/j20_ ... _90-99.pdfAccording to axes estimates there in about 5 billion years there would be an effective population size of 10^10 bacteria that would produce about about 5 * 10^23 mutations. This are the probabilistic estimates that life would have at it's disposal to find something usefull.
Bacterial species are most conducive to
this because of their large effective population sizes.3 So let us
assume, generously, that an ancient bacterial species sustained an
effective population size of 1010 individuals [26] while passing
through 104 generations per year. After five billion years, such
a species would produce a total of 5 × 1023 (=5 × 109 104 1010)
cells that happen (by chance) to avoid the small-scale extinction
events that kill most cells irrespective of fitness. These 5 × 1023
‘lucky survivors’ are the cells available for spontaneous mutations
to accomplish whatever will be accomplished in the species.
This number, then, sets the maximum probabilistic resources that
can be expended on a single adaptive step.
According to me these numbers are inflated. A more rational position would be to take 3.6 billion years,s ince that's the most commonly dated appearance of first life. Furthermore, we should take the mutation rate to be a 10^8 mutations level. Effective population can stay the same.
So we would get the following model: 3.6 * (10^10 * 10^4 * 10^8) = 3.6 * 10^22
Which is clearly not enough to get to even the smallest of estimated protein folds like Chorismate mutase which is on the order of 1 : 10^44. So darwinian evolution fails.