The ramifications of blockchain technology?

jamest · **#1081** by **jamest** » Jul 06, 2021 2:06 am

Hermit wrote:
jamest wrote:You guys should start to be concerned that inflation is already starting to rise to the point where your governments are coming out to parrot that there's nothing to worry about!

Never mind what governments say. Give us evidence of the inflation rate rising into four-digit territory. Data. Leave prophesies to Nostradamus. I was kind of hoping you might have learnt from your previous failures.

I'm not a 'prophet' and have repeatedly stated this fact numerous times during my long tenure here. I'm a philosopher/rationalist and my only accurate successes during my tenure here thus far are in proving that God exists and that bitcoin will achieve a price of more than 50K in 2021.

As for the inflation thingy, well that's gradually rising as we speak to a point that governments across the world are already trying to appease the peasants. Why are they doing this when inflation is officially below 3%? Because they're shitting themselves due to the amount of debt they have created for themselves with the amount of money-printing that they've been doing over the last decade or so, notwithstanding the last 2 years. I mean, they daren't raise interest rates or they themselves are fucked with the amount of debt they've incurred and the repercussions that will have for the people who have mortgages, etc.. In other words, you should be VERY worried that the governments of the USA & UK are already issuing statements for us not to worry about inflation, precisely because they can do fuck all about it.

If you want to harp on the fact that you've proven that I'm not a prophet when I've never presented myself as such, then please continue to do so. This whole shebang doesn't revolve around me saying that The Roman Empire will fall at noon next Thursday. This is ultimately all about the fact that the 'Roman Empire' (so to speak), is ABOUT to fall.

From where I'm sitting, you want to undermine me by proving that Thursday has already passed. It doesn't even matter if what I say happens on Friday instead. For you, all that matters is that I wasn't a prophet because it didn't happen on Thursday.

What's wrong with you :nono:

Hermit · **#1082** by **Hermit** » Jul 06, 2021 3:20 am

jamest wrote:I'm not a 'prophet'...

Yes, you are. The thing about internet forums is that posts we write stay put and are searchable. You made a number of prophesies:

1) Hyperinflation in the realms of a 4-figure percentage hike.
2) the economical crisis resulting from this particular virus will kill more than half of us.
3) All currencies except for blockchain currencies will become worthless.
4) Assuming no vaccine, the epidemic will end naturally before the summer of 2021.

You interspersed them with comments to the effect that you are certain those prophesies will come to pass. Just because you changed the date when it looked like they won't does not make them any less so.

jamest wrote:As for the inflation thingy, well that's gradually rising as we speak...

Inflation has always risen and fallen, JamesT.

Your original prophesy of hyperinflation in the realms of a 4-figure percentage hike has not come to pass, and there is no evidence that new due-by date will see it being realised either, but don't let anything discourage you from revising your prophesies.

jamest · **#1083** by **jamest** » Jul 06, 2021 4:00 am

Hermit wrote:
jamest wrote:I'm not a 'prophet'...

Yes, you are. The thing about internet forums is that posts we write stay put and are searchable. You made a number of prophesies:

1) Hyperinflation in the realms of a 4-figure percentage hike.
2) the economical crisis resulting from this particular virus will kill more than half of us.
3) All currencies except for blockchain currencies will become worthless.
4) Assuming no vaccine, the epidemic will end naturally before the summer of 2021.

You interspersed them with comments to the effect that you are certain those prophesies will come to pass. Just because you changed the date when it looked like they won't does not make them any less so.

jamest wrote:As for the inflation thingy, well that's gradually rising as we speak...

Inflation has always risen and fallen, JamesT.

Your original prophesy of hyperinflation in the realms of a 4-figure percentage hike has not come to pass, and there is no evidence that new due-by date will see it being realised either, but don't let anything discourage you from revising your prophesies.

Look, I think that hyperinflation is a certainty anytime soon. And it could still happen anytime soon, not long after I predicted it to happen. The fact that it didn't happen at a specified date isn't a problem for me as I'm not here presenting myself as a psychic.

I mean, what will you think of me if hyperinflation happens in 2025? Are you still only going to be interested in the fact that I suggested it Should have happened by now?

I do NOT present myself here as a prophet and NEVER have, even when for the best part of a decade my focus here was on proving God's existence.

Do you know what that means? It means that when I predict an England Vs Italy football final for Euro 20 this week, I HAVE NO IDEA whether I"m going to be right YET do not expect to have my philosophy undermined because it's [ultimately] an Italy Vs Denmark final.

YOUR problem seems to be one of thinking of me of some kind of superhuman and trying to prove that I am not. Clearly, I am not.
I'm from the slums of Manchester, squire. I have never felt special and do not do so, to this day.

Hermit · **#1084** by **Hermit** » Jul 06, 2021 4:44 am

jamest wrote:Look, I think that hyperinflation is a certainty anytime soon.

So you keep saying. That is one of several prophesies keep making and remaking.

In case you're not familiar with the relevant word:

prophesy
verb [ I or T ]
uk
/ˈprɒf.ə.saɪ/ us
/ˈprɑː.fə.saɪ/
to say that you believe something will happen in the future:

Few could have prophesied this war.
[ + that ] He prophesied that the present government would only stay four years in office.
[ + question word ] I wouldn't like to prophesy what will happen to that marriage!

prophecy
noun
uk
/ˈprɒf.ə.si/ us
/ˈprɑː.fə.si/
[ C ]
a statement that says what is going to happen in the future, especially one that is based on what you believe about a particular matter rather than existing facts:

The minister suggested that the dire prophecies of certain leading environmentalists were somewhat exaggerated.
These doom and gloom prophecies are doing little to help the economy.
[ U ] formal
the ability to say what is going to happen in the future

felltoearth · **#1085** by **felltoearth** » Jul 06, 2021 12:44 pm

jamest wrote:
I mean, what will you think of me if hyperinflation happens in 2025?

This kind of question just screams to your critical incapacities.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

quas · **#1086** by **quas** » Jul 06, 2021 1:36 pm

jamest wrote:
quas wrote:We haven't even entered day 4, it's now $25!

Pump and dump. Get te fuck out, asap.

https://coinfomania.com/youtuber-techle ... ake-token/

https://cryptobriefing.com/youtuber-tec ... -plummets/

https://twitter.com/TheCryptoLark/statu ... 9933747200

https://twitter.com/TheCryptoLark/statu ... 3792326657

A 3 days old cryptocurrency pumps up phenomenally, and suddenly price plummets. Meanwhile, lots of people in the general crypto community express their fears, doubts and uncertainties on Reddit, Telegram, Twitter, etc. Your "trusted" news sources -including respected crypto influencers like Lark Davis- all say this coin is a scam, so this is definitely a scam, right?

OlivierK · **#1087** by **OlivierK** » Jul 07, 2021 8:34 am

jamest wrote:I mean, what will you think of me if hyperinflation happens in 2025?

What are you going to think of yourself if it doesn't?

gobshite · **#1088** by **gobshite** » Jul 07, 2021 9:07 am

quas · **#1089** by **quas** » Jul 09, 2021 5:28 am

I think it's all for fun & games to poke fun at Jamest's prediction of hyper-inflation*.
But at the same time, I also think why not just accept his "prophecy" at face value?

What could possibly go wrong?

A. You invest your money and profit. Then, you laugh at Jamest. Because you are such an ungrateful bastard.

B. You invest your money and profit. The world goes to shit, but you just don't care as you have enough money to secure yourself for life, and probably secures the livelihood of your great great great grandson who doesn't work a day in his life and just spends his day sitting on a jacuzzi bar on Mars.

---
* Up until recently (like a few days ago?), I don't believe that could ever happen. Now, I am thinking it's also a good idea to prepare for black swan events, just in case. Especially right now, things don't seem to look very promising eg. We are getting "rumours" that new COVID variants have rendered vaccinations useless.

Hermit · **#1090** by **Hermit** » Jul 09, 2021 6:08 am

quas wrote:I think it's all for fun & games to poke fun at Jamest's prediction of hyper-inflation*.
But at the same time, I also think why not just accept his "prophecy" at face value?

What do you mean with "accept his prophecy at face value?" Accept these to come to pass?

1) Hyperinflation in the realms of a 4-figure percentage hike.
2) the economical crisis resulting from this particular virus will kill more than half of us.
3) All currencies except for blockchain currencies will become worthless.
4) Assuming no vaccine, the epidemic will end naturally before the summer of 2021.

Why would I want to do that?

As for investing in blockchain currencies, I am not interested. I am not interested in investing in stockmarket shares, macadamia nut plantations, vinyards, tulips, gold, pork belly futures, horses, greyhounds or anything else. It's all a gamble. Some people win big, some people lose big and most people land somewhere in between.

I don't care at all if he does, if you do or if anyone else does. Not my business. I do wish JamesT would stop browbeating us with this and whatever else he thinks we should do allfuckingready.

felltoearth · **#1091** by **felltoearth** » Jul 09, 2021 12:49 pm

jamest wrote:

There was a recent point when my own projected wealth, after paying CGT, was above £half-million. That's why I was asking advice about house-buying and why I went to see a half-dozen houses. Ironically, we found a house we would have liked to buy, but guess what date that was? May 12th of this year, after which a more-or-less 50% correction happened.

Any “investment” instrument where you can lose 50% of the value in a single day isn’t worth it. The key to financial planning is found in the second word. We can’t have a financial plan with such volatility, as discovered by you on May 12.

quas · **#1092** by **quas** » Jul 09, 2021 1:22 pm

Hermit wrote:What do you mean with "accept his prophecy at face value?" Accept these to come to pass?

1) Hyperinflation in the realms of a 4-figure percentage hike.
2) the economical crisis resulting from this particular virus will kill more than half of us.
3) All currencies except for blockchain currencies will become worthless.
4) Assuming no vaccine, the epidemic will end naturally before the summer of 2021.
Why would I want to do that?

With the exception of (4) [too optimistic], all three predictions should be taken at face value.

This is why:
http://www.rationalskepticism.org/news- ... l#p2772943

It's all about preparing for the worst case scenario and taking insurance against black swan events.

As for investing in blockchain currencies, I am not interested. I am not interested in investing in stockmarket shares, macadamia nut plantations, vinyards, tulips, gold, pork belly futures, horses, greyhounds or anything else. It's all a gamble. Some people win big, some people lose big and most people land somewhere in between.

Being prepared for black swan events (Great Depression II, WWIII, alien invasion, etc) comes in many forms. But ultimately it's about accumulating as much resources as quickly as possible. If everything goes to shit, only the richest will survive. Increasing wealth can come in many forms. Starting a great business, operating 1,000 lemonade stands seems like a good plan. If you can make it work for you, good for you.

But what if these black swan events occur 2-3 months from now?

How could anyone possibly open up 1,000 lemonades stands within that timeframe?
The only insurance against black swan event is black swan farming.

Please read the entire article, it's the most illuminating thing I've read in my entire life:
http://www.paulgraham.com/swan.html#f1n\

I first learned about black swan farming from this reddit thread:
https://www.reddit.com/r/market_sentime ... es_to_see/

"Take the classic example of Keith Gill (aka DFV). He at one point had a $50MM return using a 50K call option. Even if he had another 99 50K call options in other stocks which expired worthless, just this one right pick would have made him a net profit of $45MM. This phenomenon is known as black swan farming."

I have incorporated black swan farming as my one and only investment strategy.

Correct me if I'm wrong here, to my knowledge, there's currently zero black swan farming opportunity available on the stock market.

As of right now, I think that's only possible in crypto investment.

Oh, by the way, this is MOST IMPORTANT part:
"All currencies except for blockchain currencies will become worthless."
As part of my black swan insurance, I have to take into consideration the exact opposite happening, which means you should ALWAYS take into consideration the very real possibility of crypto being banned by governments worldwide in the near future.

I believe it is possible to do black swan farming in 2-3 months, maybe 1 year max (before govt banhammer comes into effect). I have posted an article case study on this.
http://www.rationalskepticism.org/gener ... l#p2771245

Hermit · **#1093** by **Hermit** » Jul 09, 2021 1:44 pm

quas wrote:
Hermit wrote:What do you mean with "accept his prophecy at face value?" Accept these to come to pass?

1) Hyperinflation in the realms of a 4-figure percentage hike.
2) the economical crisis resulting from this particular virus will kill more than half of us.
3) All currencies except for blockchain currencies will become worthless.
4) Assuming no vaccine, the epidemic will end naturally before the summer of 2021.
Why would I want to do that?

With the exception of (4) [too optimistic], all three predictions should be taken at face value.

This is why:
http://www.rationalskepticism.org/news- ... l#p2772943

It's all about preparing for the worst case scenario and taking insurance against black swan events.

As for investing in blockchain currencies, I am not interested. I am not interested in investing in stockmarket shares, macadamia nut plantations, vinyards, tulips, gold, pork belly futures, horses, greyhounds or anything else. It's all a gamble. Some people win big, some people lose big and most people land somewhere in between.

Being prepared for black swan events (Great Depression II, WWIII, alien invasion, etc) comes in many forms. But ultimately it's about accumulating as much resources as quickly as possible. If everything goes to shit, only the richest will survive. Increasing wealth can come in many forms. Starting a great business, operating 1,000 lemonade stands seems like a good plan. If you can make it work for you, good for you.

But what if these black swan events occur 2-3 months from now?

How could anyone possibly open up 1,000 lemonades stands within that timeframe?
The only insurance against black swan event is black swan farming.

Please read the entire article, it's the most illuminating thing I've read in my entire life:
http://www.paulgraham.com/swan.html#f1n\

I first learned about black swan farming from this reddit thread:
https://www.reddit.com/r/market_sentime ... es_to_see/

"Take the classic example of Keith Gill (aka DFV). He at one point had a $50MM return using a 50K call option. Even if he had another 99 50K call options in other stocks which expired worthless, just this one right pick would have made him a net profit of $45MM. This phenomenon is known as black swan farming."

I have incorporated black swan farming as my one and only investment strategy.

Correct me if I'm wrong here, to my knowledge, there's currently zero black swan farming opportunity available on the stock market.

As of right now, I think that's only possible in crypto investment.

Oh, by the way, this is MOST IMPORTANT part:
"All currencies except for blockchain currencies will become worthless."
As part of my black swan insurance, I have to take into consideration the exact opposite happening, which means you should ALWAYS take into consideration the very real possibility of crypto being banned by governments worldwide in the near future.

I believe it is possible to do black swan farming in 2-3 months, maybe 1 year max (before govt banhammer comes into effect). I have posted an article case study on this.
http://www.rationalskepticism.org/gener ... l#p2771245

felltoearth · **#1094** by **felltoearth** » Jul 09, 2021 1:54 pm

quas wrote:

I have incorporated black swan farming as my one and only investment strategy.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

quas · **#1095** by **quas** » Jul 09, 2021 2:49 pm

felltoearth wrote:
jamest wrote:

There was a recent point when my own projected wealth, after paying CGT, was above £half-million. That's why I was asking advice about house-buying and why I went to see a half-dozen houses. Ironically, we found a house we would have liked to buy, but guess what date that was? May 12th of this year, after which a more-or-less 50% correction happened.

Any “investment” instrument where you can lose 50% of the value in a single day isn’t worth it. The key to financial planning is found in the second word. We can’t have a financial plan with such volatility, as discovered by you on May 12.

All things being equal, the value of Bitcoin keeps going up, and up, and up, and up!
That means anytime you buy Bitcoin at its all time high (ATH) and then suffer 50-80% crash afterwards, given enough time, you would eventually profit MASSIVELY.

You only get wrecked if you are a short-term investor, who maxed out all your credit cards, put all your life savings, use leverage (which is like taking a loan) and then has to cash out before the price could recover and reach a new ATH.

Having said that, if you are thinking of investing in Bitcoin today, I would advise against it. The reward is just not too enticing, the market cap is already too big, making it increasingly difficult to multiple your gains. Most importantly, in this crazy post-COVID world that we live in right now where there is a very real possibility of an alien invasion to occur in your lifetime, all things are no longer equal, an unpredictable black swan event might just pop up out of nowhere causing Bitcoin to go down to zero. Just because BTC has always repeatedly recovered from severe crashes and reached ATH, there's no guarantee that it won't go down to zero before you could cash in your investments.

quas · **#1096** by **quas** » Jul 09, 2021 3:11 pm

felltoearth wrote:
quas wrote:

I have incorporated black swan farming as my one and only investment strategy.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Whatever makes you think I'm into gambling?

"Take the classic example of Keith Gill (aka DFV). He at one point had a $50MM return using a 50K call option. Even if he had another 99 50K call options in other stocks which expired worthless, just this one right pick would have made him a net profit of $45MM. This phenomenon is known as black swan farming."

You don't get this kind of odds at the casino.

The_Metatron · **#1097** by **The_Metatron** » Jul 09, 2021 4:35 pm

quas wrote:
felltoearth wrote:
quas wrote:

I have incorporated black swan farming as my one and only investment strategy.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Whatever makes you think I'm into gambling?

[Reveal] Spoiler: gibberish describing the thing you do, defining it as black swan farming
"Take the classic example of Keith Gill (aka DFV). He at one point had a $50MM return using a 50K call option. Even if he had another 99 50K call options in other stocks which expired worthless, just this one right pick would have made him a net profit of $45MM. This phenomenon is known as black swan farming."

You don't get this kind of odds at the casino.

Odds? You're talking about gambling. Call it whatever you like, but it's gambling.

minininja · **#1098** by **minininja** » Jul 09, 2021 7:58 pm

quas wrote:
Being prepared for black swan events (Great Depression II, WWIII, alien invasion, etc) comes in many forms. But ultimately it's about accumulating as much resources as quickly as possible. If everything goes to shit, only the richest will survive. Increasing wealth can come in many forms. Starting a great business, operating 1,000 lemonade stands seems like a good plan. If you can make it work for you, good for you.

Private ownership of wealth or assets only exists so far as society at large agrees with it or so far as you are able to physically defend it. If everything goes to shit the richest may find that they are not nearly as rich as they thought they were compared to for example communities with vegetable gardens & solar panels, or they may find themselves up against a wall. The way to survive is just the same as it is now, - to be part of a community that can work together to solve problems. And rather than believing everything you read on Reddit and fretting about your own selfish response to imaginary problems like alien invasions you might do better and learn a thing or two by helping other people who are suffering from real problems now.

OlivierK · **#1099** by **OlivierK** » Jul 09, 2021 9:27 pm

I've got a great investment strategy: go to the racecourse and only bet on horses with at least 1000-1 odds. No mainstream investment offers such great returns, and it doesn't matter if you do this 100 times and 99 of the horses don't win, you still end up with ten times your initial stake.

What could possibly go wrong?

OlivierK · **#1100** by **OlivierK** » Jul 09, 2021 9:52 pm

More seriously, the high-volatility investments quas and jamest propose lead, by their nature, to a very wide variety of potential outcomes.

As Hermit has noted, if you're in a position to guarantee a good outcome, then trading that for a wide variety of great, good, marginal, and terrible outcomes isn't attractive.

James and quas are smart enough to realise that it's good to be rich (when it comes to having the capacity to deal with crises). But a poor person can't just *choose* to be rich, they need to get there somehow. If traditional investments of surplus wages won't get them where they want to go fast enough, gambling is a risky way of getting there, but it IS a way of getting there. Of course it's far from guaranteed, but it makes the previously impossible possible. That's always been its appeal.

But jamest and quas don't seem to be able to grasp that to the already rich, gambling isn't attractive. The rich don't want to take a chance to swap their personal financial circumstances for someone else's, they're fine with what they've already got. And if they come on to a forum populated by often older, educated people from first-world countries, they're likely to interact with people who have already had decades of working at good jobs and investing the proceeds.

I put it to james somewhere in this thread that his strategy for investing in crypto to jag enough to buy a house then get out wasn't attractive to me partly because I already own four houses. That's not a boast - none of them are particularly flash - but it's just to illustrate that different people are going to have different perspectives to risk. He seemed to get it at the time, but I'm not sure it stuck. Hermit and spearthrower keep pointing this out, too, but I'm just not sure james and quas can even imagine how their own attitudes to risk might change if they'd already got where they wanted to go.

If you have $2, and want at least $1,000,000 by tomorrow, then a lottery ticket or a lucky run at the casino are your only ways. If you have $2,000,000, and want at least $1,000,000 by tomorrow, then you can spend your day sitting by the pool, and then going out to a nice restaurant for dinner, and you can do that the next day, and the next day, and the day after that. Why the fuck would you put your $2,000,000 into a volatile investment, even one with potential high returns? You might have a play gamble with a smaller amount, but if having at least $1,000,000 tomorrow is the goal, then the easiest way is to take at least $1,000,000 of your $2,000,000 and do very little with it.

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