The ramifications of blockchain technology?

Thommo · **#501** by **Thommo** » Mar 28, 2020 7:30 am

jamest wrote:I don't really want to debate this tonight, but if you've got any serious points to make I might address them in a day or two.

The oldies are the goodies, but we've heard that one before.

Spearthrower · **#502** by **Spearthrower** » Mar 28, 2020 8:24 am

jamest wrote:These days, I can hardly be arsed to post here, and certainly not elsewhere.

You know what's ironic about this?

I've seen you post it dozens of times.

There's an innate irony there that's almost beautiful.

gobshite · **#503** by **gobshite** » Mar 28, 2020 8:26 am

jamest wrote:
gobshite wrote:I think we are in a shitstorm. But I still find your predictions to be ridiculous. Half the world's population is going to die? Come the fuck on. And regarding hyperinflation I explained that to you previously with pretty pictures. It's not going to happen. We are in an age of technological deflation. inflation isn't a problem, and even if it was, massively expanding monetary supply in the last few decades has had fuck all effect on inflation. Printing money isn't going to have all that much effect. I'm sure we will see some inflation from it, but it won't be anything like thousands of percent, let alone tens of percent.

I'll perhaps deal with whatever you've said on the matter recently in more detail, later. But yes, I stand by the fact that if the world's economy crashes entirely, possibly half of its population will die from the consequent poverty and violence/war which will ensue.

Btw, I don't want anyone to experience such suffering, nor obviously wish to be so discredited that I look like an utter imbecile a few months/years from now, so please ensure that you realise how much my neck is on the line here. Certainly, the prospect of me looking like an utter imbecile a few month/years from now is obviously not my focus nor desire. And since I have nothing to sell either, including God, why the fuck do you think that I would be saying this other than for YOU?

I've got nothing to gain here. NOTHING. This forum hates me. And in doing my best to warn the likes of yourself, I could lose ALL credibility here.

I'm not going to get any rewards for saying this, even if I'm right. I know that. So if the balance is between trying to help people who won't thank me even if I'm right, versus being mocked and hung when I'm proven wrong, I'd rather risk my own credibility than your (plural) life or quality of life.

Have I asked you for any reward? No. Do I expect one? No. Do I expect to be mocked incessantly until you're all dead? Yes. Why do I continue to say these things then? Because there is the hope that a handful of you will heed my words, which is a handful less deaths/suffering.

Bollocks, I've just realised that I've ended up doing that which I was determined to stay away from tonight, which was multiple postings. I just want to get away from this shite but keep getting drawn in from every angle.

If this lasts more than 6 months (with the pandemic taking hold again after restrictions are relaxed; and/or immunity isn't guaranteed) things are probably going to be a lot worse than most people are expecting. I can't really envision what's going to happen to the economies of the world with more than 6 months shutdown. I'd expect a Great Depression level of event at the very least. Things really will get ugly at that point. In a place like the US with a fuckload of guns and a "fuck you, Joe" attitude, society could actually totally collapse. I wouldn't expect this to happen in the rest of the developed world, where community spirit still exists. Even still, if the agricultural sector collapses and the logistics operation that brings food to our plates collapses, all bets are off.

Pessimistic view there, and I don't think this will actually come to pass. But it is a distinct possibility if a lot of bad things line up and happen.

One thing I haven't heard very much about in all of this is the effect covid-19 will have on the third world. India with 1.5 billion people, and no welfare system to speak of, and poor healthcare, could be in a world of utter shit if the virus takes hold there. And I can't imagine how it couldn't take hold there. So many people so packed in, with poor hygiene thrown in. And much of Africa in a similar situation. We really only hear about the developed world at the moment. Anyone know what's going on in the third world? The deaths there could totally eclipse the developed world.

Spearthrower · **#504** by **Spearthrower** » Mar 28, 2020 8:36 am

gobshite wrote:If this lasts more than 6 months (with the pandemic taking hold again after restrictions are relaxed; and/or immunity isn't guaranteed) things are probably going to be a lot worse than most people are expecting. I can't really envision what's going to happen to the economies of the world with more than 6 months shutdown. I'd expect a Great Depression level of event at the very least. Things really will get ugly at that point. In a place like the US with a fuckload of guns and a "fuck you, Joe" attitude, society could actually totally collapse. I wouldn't expect this to happen in the rest of the developed world, where community spirit still exists. Even still, if the agricultural sector collapses and the logistics operation that brings food to our plates collapses, all bets are off.

While there's a plausible scenario there of it to be like the Great Depression in effect, the actual underlying mechanisms for it are not similar, and once restrictions are ended, I think the economy will not have structural issues that stop it bouncing back.

gobshite wrote:
One thing I haven't heard very much about in all of this is the effect covid-19 will have on the third world. India with 1.5 billion people, and no welfare system to speak of, and poor healthcare, could be in a world of utter shit if the virus takes hold there. And I can't imagine how it couldn't take hold there. So many people so packed in, with poor hygiene thrown in. And much of Africa in a similar situation. We really only hear about the developed world at the moment. Anyone know what's going on in the third world? The deaths there could totally eclipse the developed world.

Just to note that India actually has a universal healthcare system mandated by the Constitution which is free for people below the poverty line, and such good cheap private healthcare that it's actually a top destination for health tourism!

However, in terms of government hospitals and medical equipment, there's a massive disparity between states as healthcare funding is done on a state level, not federal; the rural poor areas have very little access and very little equipment. So the problems you might foresee for India really are for parts of India like Bihar, Assam, and Jharkhand, and of course, because they're poor (or related to it anyway) they're also populous with population numbers higher than many European nations.

Fallible · **#505** by **Fallible** » Mar 28, 2020 3:20 pm

jamest wrote:I'm not in the mood to argue/debate tonight, but having just watched again a youtube video I saw over a year ago, thought I'd link to it again. It's about a return to a gold standard. Very interesting stuff even a year+ ago before any of this shit hit the fan, now perhaps an unfolding reality. Well worth 41 minutes of your time, especially if you have nothing better to do in self isolation:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fjhLp8AHAYc&t=104s

I cannot believe how many of you are still not taking this seriously, given all that's happened within the last month.

Personally, I'm on an emergency financial footing now. That means that I intend to withdraw all funds from my bank to the minimum within the next week, holding and managing just enough to pay my monthly bills and cover my debit card transactions. Luckily, me and the missus are still working and our earnings are paid directly into our accounts, so until that's not the case I'm quite comfortable with doing that. I've even withdrawn several hundred pounds already in emergency cash (under the pillow!), but the surplus (a few thousand) is about to be transferred into my glint and wirex cards. The former is a debit card backed by gold, the latter one backed by bitcoin. They're essentially alternative prepaid cards. As you know I withdrew all of my pension within the last year or so. I'm trusting very little of my wealth with fiat/banks/government at all. Actually, I've had that opinion for over a year but now it's a no brainer.

So, henceforth, one might say that about 90% of my/Mrs wealth has abandoned fiat. I'm so glad that I've done this, as already if I'd done nothing my pension fund would be worth [say] a third of its value within the last month. Soon, that value will be much lower, but the biggest problem will be the hyperinflation which follows this incredible amount of money which is being printed out of thin air. The inevitable super-devaluation of fiat is just on the horizon, in the form of hyper-inflation.

That video I've just linked to - reverting to a gold-backed currency - it's inevitable. The US dollar will die very soon.

Trump is bullshitting everyone, every step of the way here. From not taking this virus very seriously just a couple of weeks ago to seemingly taking it a bit more seriously whilst fundamentally saying that America will crash unless it goes back to work soon. It's all damage limitation rhetoric. If he knows the USA and the world is fucked, then so should anyone.

As I said, I can't be arsed arguing with anyone tonight. Either digest the video and what I'm saying or ignore it all, but don't expect a response tonight. I just cannot be bothered when 90% of you seem so indifferent to what's going on here. Know one thing though, which is that our governments cannot in any way afford to pay you all for sitting at home for the next year or so, which is what it will take to eliminate the virus. Do the math. Something's gotta give. In either case, it's going to be catastrophic for the economy.

Eta: Yes Fallible, my wife is aware of what I've done. She's trusted me with our finances from day one and I didn't have to shout at her either.

No idea why you’re addressing me, I couldn’t give shit. She picked you, that’s her problem, not mine. Also, ‘I don’t want to debate this’ appears to mean that you think you can throw out the same (wrong) accusations at people without feeling it necessary to back them up. We’re not blazé about things, the problem is specifically with YOU. We take things seriously, we just don’t care what YOU consider should be taken seriously. It really is about time that you began to digest this simple thing.

Fallible · **#506** by **Fallible** » Mar 28, 2020 3:26 pm

jamest wrote:Fair enough gents. I'm not debating tonight. Though there's nothing "wild" about what I'm saying. I mean, we're all currently self isolating from a virus that is still probably going to be here in a year's time and half the world's businesses are about to go bankrupt already and the stockmarket is down about 30+% and looks like deteriorating further and governments are printing money out of their arse, etc..

From my perspective, you lot are utterly deluded. Regardless, best of wishes etc..

Your perspective is famously wonky. Unbelievably, you still don’t seem to have absorbed the fact that no one takes you seriously. No one cares what you think of them. Your thinks are useless.

‘I don’t want to debate, but I’m just going to say this...I don’t want to debate, but I’m just going to say that...I don’t want to debate, but you’re all delusional...’ I don’t care if you don’t want to debate. You never debated a day in your life. You just chucked out claims, then became personal when people didn’t automatically buy them. The way you are operating now is exactly the same, and you’ll get the same treatment.

felltoearth · **#507** by **felltoearth** » Mar 28, 2020 3:58 pm

jamest wrote:I'm not in the mood to argue/debate tonight, but having just watched again a youtube video I saw over a year ago, thought I'd link to it again. It's about a return to a gold standard. Very interesting stuff even a year+ ago before any of this shit hit the fan, now perhaps an unfolding reality. Well worth 41 minutes of your time, especially if you have nothing better to do in self isolation:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fjhLp8AHAYc&t=104s

From the video:

Having a gold backing to the global monetary system generated lengthy periods of great prosperity.

Hyperbole. I’ll watch the rest of this but any video that opens with a quote of Greenspan (the master lol) pondering the gold standard is suspect to say the least.

jamest wrote:
I cannot believe how many of you are still not taking this seriously, given all that's happened within the last month.

I cannot believe you watch these and can post what you do. Youtube is a shitty primary source for any information. It’s valuable for fixing your washing machine if you know who isn’t an amateur or a hamfisted DIY with vid skillz. Harder to tell who is an amateur or hamfisted in finance. Do you know what free financial advice is worth?

Cito di Pense · **#508** by **Cito di Pense** » Mar 28, 2020 4:09 pm

felltoearth wrote:Do you know what free financial advice is worth?

https://financialoccultist.com/2019/01/ ... er-quotes/

Spearthrower · **#509** by **Spearthrower** » Mar 28, 2020 6:05 pm

Cito di Pense wrote:
felltoearth wrote:Do you know what free financial advice is worth?

https://financialoccultist.com/2019/01/ ... er-quotes/

“Offering advice without expertise is aggressive ignorance.”

"... According to Bacon: “These quiet professionals are quite inconspicuous unless you look for them, because there are so many careless gamblers, crazy amateurs, jumping from one crackpot idea to another betting on hope and fear”. ..."

theropod_V_2.0 · **#510** by **theropod_V_2.0** » Mar 28, 2020 6:12 pm

jamest wrote:
theropod_V_2.0 wrote:If the shit hits the fan at the level jamest predicts his gold/silver coins won’t be worth shit. Why? If there is one pound of rice inside a 500 mile radius I wouldn’t trade it for all the gold he could stack on a flatbed rail car. Neither would I trade my pound of rice for all the bit coins combined. What good would it do to have all of jamest’s gold/silver and bit coins if I starve?

RS

If it get's to the level YOU imply, then it's all about guns. It might actually get that bad in the USA quite quickly, given that every household seemingly (the news we here) has enough armoury to destroy a small village.

If the shit does hit the fan and you can't sell anything other than your body to buy a meal, then at least eat well.

Nice childish insult there jimmy joe. Is that really the best you can do? Pathetic.

Not every house in the USA is an armed bastion. Your snide little comment is so far off the mark it’s pathetic. Nobody would want my body at even the most cut-rate price. No, I can feed me and mine from the veggies, fruits, grains and nuts alone that the thousands and thousands of wild hardwood forest that surrounds us provides. Of course you wouldn’t know anything about that because your idea of wild is the flock of starlings that shit on your car, while white tailed deer, eastern wild turkey, fox and gray squirrels along with several other game animals wander through our YARD on a daily basis. Oh, and those guns I do own are far more effective than throwing gold coins, so your wild notions are getting father and farther from reality. Have you been checked for insanity lately? After the pandemic you might want to have that looked at.

We might even manage to grow, and preserve, a fair amount of our own food on the 60 acres we own. It isn’t hard to grow a garden, but that’s something else you have probably never done. Have you ever canned a single jar of food in your life? I seriously doubt it.

It’s your dire predictions, not mine. I try not to be a panicky little child in the face of adversity. I doubt my wife and I could have lived the last 20 years off the grid if we were as helpless, and pathetic, as you seem to be. I’d imagine you will be left whimpering like a child if your own predictions come true. Good luck making gold coin stew, and bitcoin cookies.

Do you not know that all dollars are printed “out of thin air” now? Apparently not, and we are supposed to listen to your sage advice about economic matters? That one’s got bells on it.

RS

Hermit · **#511** by **Hermit** » Mar 28, 2020 6:14 pm

Cito di Pense wrote:
felltoearth wrote:Do you know what free financial advice is worth?

https://financialoccultist.com/2019/01/ ... er-quotes/

"Offering advice without expertise is aggressive ignorance."

:mrgreen:

Cito di Pense · **#512** by **Cito di Pense** » Mar 28, 2020 10:19 pm

Hermit wrote:
Cito di Pense wrote:
felltoearth wrote:Do you know what free financial advice is worth?

https://financialoccultist.com/2019/01/ ... er-quotes/

"Offering advice without expertise is aggressive ignorance."

It's beautiful stuff, isn't it? In a wild and woolly way. From his wikipedia article:

Niederhoffer is also the founder of the NYC Junto, a libertarian group hosted on the first Thursday of every month from 1985 to 2017. He is an enthusiast of Ayn Rand, and named two of his daughters Galt and Rand.[27] The NYC Junto focuses on libertarianism, objectivism and investing and was inspired by the Junto hosted by Benjamin Franklin in Philadelphia from 1727 to 1757. He has six daughters and one son.

Hermit · **#513** by **Hermit** » Mar 29, 2020 1:51 am

Cito di Pense wrote:
Hermit wrote:
Cito di Pense wrote:
felltoearth wrote:Do you know what free financial advice is worth?

https://financialoccultist.com/2019/01/ ... er-quotes/

"Offering advice without expertise is aggressive ignorance."

It's beautiful stuff, isn't it? In a wild and woolly way. From his wikipedia article:

Niederhoffer is also the founder of the NYC Junto, a libertarian group hosted on the first Thursday of every month from 1985 to 2017. He is an enthusiast of Ayn Rand, and named two of his daughters Galt and Rand.[27] The NYC Junto focuses on libertarianism, objectivism and investing and was inspired by the Junto hosted by Benjamin Franklin in Philadelphia from 1727 to 1757. He has six daughters and one son.

Never mind the author's faults. It seems to me that the snippet I quoted describes this thread perfectly. Come to think of it, it fits its creator generally, I suspect. Mind you, there are no numbers to back any of this up. Not that it matters. Nobody's going to fact-check me six months or a year from now.

Cito di Pense · **#514** by **Cito di Pense** » Mar 29, 2020 5:52 am

Hermit wrote:
Cito di Pense wrote:
Hermit wrote:
Cito di Pense wrote:
https://financialoccultist.com/2019/01/ ... er-quotes/

"Offering advice without expertise is aggressive ignorance."

It's beautiful stuff, isn't it? In a wild and woolly way. From his wikipedia article:

Niederhoffer is also the founder of the NYC Junto, a libertarian group hosted on the first Thursday of every month from 1985 to 2017. He is an enthusiast of Ayn Rand, and named two of his daughters Galt and Rand.[27] The NYC Junto focuses on libertarianism, objectivism and investing and was inspired by the Junto hosted by Benjamin Franklin in Philadelphia from 1727 to 1757. He has six daughters and one son.

Never mind the author's faults. It seems to me that the snippet I quoted describes this thread perfectly. Come to think of it, it fits its creator generally, I suspect. Mind you, there are no numbers to back any of this up. Not that it matters. Nobody's going to fact-check me six months or a year from now.

But then, you're not making any predictions, here. Unless it's "more of the same". That one always works. It's the old shit sandwich, again. The more bread you have, the less shit you have to eat. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, i think the ditty goes. Another one I like is "economists have predicted 11 out of the last 5 recessions." Yogi Berra said, "Prediction is difficult. Especially of the future."

Hermit · **#515** by **Hermit** » Mar 29, 2020 6:13 am

Cito di Pense wrote:
Hermit wrote:
Cito di Pense wrote:
Hermit wrote:
"Offering advice without expertise is aggressive ignorance."

It's beautiful stuff, isn't it? In a wild and woolly way. From his wikipedia article:

Niederhoffer is also the founder of the NYC Junto, a libertarian group hosted on the first Thursday of every month from 1985 to 2017. He is an enthusiast of Ayn Rand, and named two of his daughters Galt and Rand.[27] The NYC Junto focuses on libertarianism, objectivism and investing and was inspired by the Junto hosted by Benjamin Franklin in Philadelphia from 1727 to 1757. He has six daughters and one son.

Never mind the author's faults. It seems to me that the snippet I quoted describes this thread perfectly. Come to think of it, it fits its creator generally, I suspect. Mind you, there are no numbers to back any of this up. Not that it matters. Nobody's going to fact-check me six months or a year from now.

But then, you're not making any predictions, here. Unless it's "more of the same". That one always works. It's the old shit sandwich, again. The more bread you have, the less shit you have to eat. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, i think the ditty goes. Another one I like is "economists have predicted 11 out of the last 5 recessions." Yogi Berra said, "Prediction is difficult. Especially of the future."

is one of my favourite emojs. Unfortunately, I can only ever use it to flag my predictions retrospectively, for it usually interferes with it otherwise. If that were not the case I would have used it in post #513. Thanks for biting. :mrgreen:

Also, I agree with what you posted just now. Amusing to boot. :thumbup:

Cito di Pense · **#516** by **Cito di Pense** » Mar 29, 2020 6:18 am

Hermit wrote:
Cito di Pense wrote:
Hermit wrote:
Cito di Pense wrote:
It's beautiful stuff, isn't it? In a wild and woolly way. From his wikipedia article:

Never mind the author's faults. It seems to me that the snippet I quoted describes this thread perfectly. Come to think of it, it fits its creator generally, I suspect. Mind you, there are no numbers to back any of this up. Not that it matters. Nobody's going to fact-check me six months or a year from now.

But then, you're not making any predictions, here. Unless it's "more of the same". That one always works. It's the old shit sandwich, again. The more bread you have, the less shit you have to eat. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, i think the ditty goes. Another one I like is "economists have predicted 11 out of the last 5 recessions." Yogi Berra said, "Prediction is difficult. Especially of the future."

is one of my favourite emojs. Unfortunately, I can only ever use it to flag my predictions retrospectively, for it usually interferes with it otherwise. If that were not the case I would have used it in post #513. Thanks for biting.

Also, I agree with what you posted just now. Amusing to boot.

I admire Niederhoffer much more in his capacity as a squash player. That takes athletic ability, rather than just luck and a bankroll.

jamest · **#517** by **jamest** » Mar 30, 2020 11:24 pm

Hermit wrote:
Cito di Pense wrote:
felltoearth wrote:Do you know what free financial advice is worth?

https://financialoccultist.com/2019/01/ ... er-quotes/

"Offering advice without expertise is aggressive ignorance."

Not sure I want to say much more about this at this point, other than to say "expert advice" has never existed in the financial/economical sector. Why? Because every bit of it has been authored by greedy/selfish bastards looking to make a $ in any circumstance. That selfish factor extends to governments too.

We're staring into the abyss here. A realm we haven't entered before wrt covid-19, a global pandemic, where a GLOBAL economy is at risk.

I doubt that there's an 'expert' on the planet who KNOWS how this is going to pan out. What I do KNOW, is that the government and all serious/rich investors are going to be bullshitting all other investors throughout this pandemic, primarily to save their own investments and the status quo.

You've been warned.

I don't want to see any individual suffer, but what would hurt me more after this pandemic - other than millions of dead people of course - would be to see that IT did not change the status quo of the bullshit we have to listen to from our politicians, our financial 'experts', and most of you. :nono:

The world NEEDS drastic change. It's fucking awful as it currently is. And it's definitely going to happen. I mean, Trump just extended his "back to normal" spiel from Easter to the end of April. He couldn't go any further than that because the markets would plummet. Come the end of April, he'll be extending it to Mid-May.

Your politicians already know that this is going to be seriously affecting us for at least another year. I mean, once the "peak" lessens, what effect do you think letting everyone get back to 'normal' will have on the graph? That's correct, it will shoot back up again. Come the winter of this year, the second wave is going to be worst.

You don't have to be a rocket scientist to see what's going to happen here. Unless they find a cure, which is highly unlikely, our governments are going to be subsidising everything (printing money) for at least a year and most businesses are going to dump like an elephant in a swamp.

This is common sense stuff. Why are you looking to find "expert opinion" in a situation which has never happened, amongst people and institutions who are primarily doing their best to guard their own position, even your government.

Wake the fuck up, dear members, before it's too late.

Spearthrower · **#518** by **Spearthrower** » Mar 31, 2020 1:03 am

jamest wrote:
Not sure I want to say much more about this at this point, other than to say "expert advice" has never existed in the financial/economical sector. Why? Because every bit of it has been authored by greedy/selfish bastards looking to make a $ in any circumstance. That selfish factor extends to governments too.

All aboard the Loony Train.

Don't trust the experts, don't believe the government... listen to the guy who's watched a few Youtube videos and now declares himself able to give advice that could have serious financial ramifications for people.

jamest wrote:We're staring into the abyss here.

You might be? Is it staring back?

jamest wrote: A realm we haven't entered before wrt covid-19, a global pandemic, where a GLOBAL economy is at risk.

Spanish Flu.

jamest wrote:I doubt that there's an 'expert' on the planet who KNOWS how this is going to pan out.

That's because there's no such thing as an expert of the future - a point I made to you several times in this thread.

jamest wrote:What I do KNOW, is that the government and all serious/rich investors are going to be bullshitting all other investors throughout this pandemic, primarily to save their own investments and the status quo.

You've been warned.

I have also been tickled by your bloated ego.

jamest wrote:I don't want to see any individual suffer, but what would hurt me more after this pandemic - other than millions of dead people of course - would be to see that IT did not change the status quo of the bullshit we have to listen to from our politicians, our financial 'experts', and most of you.

Awww, you just want the world to change for the better, and what would be better in your vision is if people started crediting your opinion over the government and experts. You should've imagined this as you having the last laugh, jamest - I would've got Crackpot Bingo.

jamest wrote:The world NEEDS drastic change. It's fucking awful as it currently is.

Comparative to the rest of human history, it's a fucking awesome time to live in. Just a hundred years ago, there's a fair chance you'd already be dead by now, and it would probably have been due to one of those numerous diseases we've largely cured, but which once routinely wiped out massive chunks of the population.

jamest wrote: And it's definitely going to happen.

And here come the certainties about the future.

Don't listen to the experts.
Don't listen to the authorities.
Listen to me as I confidently assert the future while beating my chest.

jamest wrote: I mean, Trump just extended his "back to normal" spiel from Easter to the end of April. He couldn't go any further than that because the markets would plummet. Come the end of April, he'll be extending it to Mid-May.

Again, it's hilarious that you're using Trump as a yardstick here - the man has blagged, bluffed and bullshitted his way through everything - how many lies are we at now? Somewhere in the region of 20,000 confirmed lies while in office - and you want to point to what Trump's administration is doing as a sign of the reality? :lol:

jamest wrote:Your politicians already know that this is going to be seriously affecting us for at least another year.

No, they don't "know" it - they're looking at models, probability distributions, listening to expert opinions and deciding whether to prepare for best or worst case scenarios. No one can know the future because actions taken now will affect it. What this actually pans out as is a global experiment, in some respects, to see what strategies work for what types of country and culture.

jamest wrote:I mean, once the "peak" lessens, what effect do you think letting everyone get back to 'normal' will have on the graph?

Umm, well if it's after the peak, then not much because otherwise it wouldn't have been the peak.

jamest wrote:That's correct, it will shoot back up again.

So it wasn't the peak then? So what about after that peak? Will it shoot back up again? Turtles all the way up? You need to think a bit more clearly here jamest - you're trying to talk about what happens after we've reached the peak infection rate, so declaring that the peak infection rate comes after the peak infection rate is obviously nonsensical.

What hopefully happens is that enough people have had minor symptoms to build up immunity to this strain so that it no longer passes around so freely, and then becomes a minor ailment that occasionally crops up. Obviously, it having fuck all to do with this thread (beyond the theme of your doomtelling), we haven't discussed here how viruses like this tend to mutate towards more benign variants - dead people aren't actually very useful for viruses, especially lots of dead people as that means there's less people to infect and reproduce through, also people have this annoying tendency to want to do everything possible not to catch something that could kill them, whereas they're much more blase about minor ailments. Natural selection will out.

jamest wrote: Come the winter of this year, the second wave is going to be worst.

If you've read up on the Spanish Flu and are trying to pretend you have knowledge of the future based on that historical event, then you really should make sure you know more about the circumstances at play during the Spanish Flu, such as the first world war, the fact that there were 2 detectable strains running concurrently, and that the human response - due to medical ignorance - was awful: soldiers with the minor strain remained in the field, while those with the more deadly strain were sent home taking it back with them. Hospitals were already crowded with the wounded, i.e. people also quite susceptible to illness, and of course, their overall knowledge of illness and medicine was vastly inferior to ours today.

So pop your Toys R Us Toddlers Crystal Ball back in the box and start exhibiting some degree of reasoned discourse. You don't know what the future holds. What you could do instead of pretending you do is to ask what could happen if the virus remains in the population then re-emerges next winter, discuss the possibilities of that hypothetical. This would then make the conversation about those hypotheticals instead of your usual gospel declarations that inevitably provoke people to laugh at your egotistical ravings.

jamest wrote:You don't have to be a rocket scientist to see what's going to happen here.

I should hope not - being a virologist would be a much more appropriate specialty than knowing about combustion, calculating vectors through gravitational effects, and delta-v.

However, regardless of your attempt to pretend that the future is something that anyone can know, it's obvious that you don't really mean that - you mean that you want to pretend to know the future, so you're making it seem like it's 'common sense' rather than your particular form of half-baked reasoning.

jamest wrote: Unless they find a cure, which is highly unlikely,...

Why is it 'highly unlikely' they'll find a cure?

jamest wrote:... our governments are going to be subsidising everything (printing money) for at least a year and most businesses are going to dump like an elephant in a swamp.

*Some governments.
*Some businesses.

Looks to me like that might very well indicate that putting more resources into finding a cure might be cheaper in the long run, and therefore, one might expect the market and governments to react to that.

jamest wrote:This is common sense stuff.

Ahh there it is! I promise I didn't read ahead - I just know the kind of vacuous crap people like you come out with under the banner of 'common sense'.

jamest wrote:Why are you looking to find "expert opinion" in a situation which has never happened, amongst people and institutions who are primarily doing their best to guard their own position, even your government.

Firstly, because expert opinion still comprises the most relevant knowledge towards escaping the situation. Secondly, while an outbreak of this magnitude hasn't happened for a couple of generations (the historical events you don't seem to know about), that doesn't mean that similar events of smaller magnitude don't happen - in reality, they happen quite frequently and there are many hundreds of thousands of people around the world with relevant expertise in addressing and alleviating these problems.

You just happen not to be one of them, and that should address the subtext here of why we might want to listen to them and not to you.

jamest wrote:Wake the fuck up, dear members, before it's too late.

I'd say 'get a fucking grip before it's too late' - but it's already too late for you. Age is now also a factor as you stubbornly dig your heels in on stupid positions you would have held more lightly, and more readily abandoned when you were younger and more flexible. Now you see yourself as some kind of guru talking down to the unwashed masses, and you like it - it makes you feel better for having failed to achieve anything in your life. You'll soon find yourself mouthing the phrases old people say that would have made you groan when you were younger and more self-aware. Kids these days don't know they're born! and the likes.

Sad really, it's kind of like dementia because you aren't aware that it's happening to you.

Hermit · **#519** by **Hermit** » Mar 31, 2020 2:35 am

jamest wrote:
Hermit wrote:
Cito di Pense wrote:
felltoearth wrote:Do you know what free financial advice is worth?

https://financialoccultist.com/2019/01/ ... er-quotes/

"Offering advice without expertise is aggressive ignorance."

[Snip]

Wake the fuck up, dear members, before it's too late.

"Offering advice without expertise is aggressive ignorance." Beautifully demonstrated. :clap:

jamest · **#520** by **jamest** » Mar 31, 2020 2:56 am

Hermit wrote:
jamest wrote:
Hermit wrote:
Cito di Pense wrote:
https://financialoccultist.com/2019/01/ ... er-quotes/

"Offering advice without expertise is aggressive ignorance."

[Snip]

Wake the fuck up, dear members, before it's too late.

"Offering advice without expertise is aggressive ignorance." Beautifully demonstrated.

Hermit, Sir, the point is that there are NO financial 'experts'. In times of crisis such as these, all experts become poor fools overnight.

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