GT2211 wrote:
New York is Clintons home state. It has a fairly large minority population. It has few too few polls for 538 to project but the most recent one a few days ago had Clinton up nearly 50. I think that's probably an outlier, but they should win that state. Maryland has a huge black population. Demographically not that different than Virginia which she won by 30. It's a state HRC should expect to win by 20.
NY alone has more delegates than the states Bern is winning today plus WI n WY combined.
PA is similar to Ohio which HRC won comfortably.
Fair enough, but I don't think New York is that easy to predict. New York is quite Liberal to start with. I partially agree on the minorities, but sanders has done well with young minorities outside of the south. It's a closed primary which works against Sanders. There is also a lot of wealth in New York, also working against Sanders. On the other hand, people have unwritten sanders off, seeing him as having electability and momentum. I think Clinton is likely to win by a small margin, but I wouldn't count on it either. Polling has been quite ureliable this election.
Ohio didn't make any sense. Sanders "should" have done much better. I can't explain what went wrong there.
On the other states, maybe you are right, but name recognition and viability as a candidate in terms of Sanders is in a much better place than it was earlier. Additionally, the southern states were much more Christian and conservative, so those variables need to be accounted for.
Like I said, it's tough to predict, but the media is treating Sanders differently now.