Brexit

mrjonno · **#2581** by **mrjonno** » Jul 23, 2018 3:50 pm

High turn out is why Brexit won, you seriously think the thickie classes are going to bother again. You had millions who had never voted before (and pray god they never vote again).

Brexit negotiations are looking more and more chaotic, how many people are really going to be bothered to vote for even more. Sure some of the fanatics will but many will simply not bother to turn out.

The referendum shows exactly why you never want high turn outs in elections, a high turn out is very bad democracy as it means people are voting who really aren't qualified to do so

Thommo · **#2582** by **Thommo** » Jul 23, 2018 4:19 pm

I think it's strange to suggest that it's a vote to leave that will perpetuate the situation. I would have said the reverse is true. A vote for further negotiation for a soft Brexit, or remain both seem likely to simply take us back to where we were, either pre-referendum or through a need for an article 50 extension for more negotiation and more uncertainty.

We'd almost certainly have a well-backed campaign for leave, a resurgent UKIP, who now have added ammo in that the political class overturned a referendum when they didn't get the answer they wanted, and the same underlying problems of a remain campaign who wants to be in a different (reformed) EU that doesn't actually exist instead of heading for a pan-European army, federalism and increasing amounts of centralisation in a commission who have political roles but remain unelected.

The best hope for remainers is that there's an overwhelming (say approaching 60-40 or greater) remain vote, and that this represents a big yes to the federalist vision, which would settle the issue. Anything else (whether landing in a nobody is happy poor soft Brexit or a soft remain where the underlying issues go unresolved) is just kicking the can down the road. Obviously a hard Brexit (or clean break perhaps is a clearer term) would also settle the issue definitively, but that's no good to remainers.

ronmcd · **#2583** by **ronmcd** » Jul 23, 2018 4:25 pm

Scot Dutchy wrote:How many are dead that voted leave? Quite a few I believe.

Novichok?

mrjonno · **#2584** by **mrjonno** » Jul 23, 2018 4:37 pm

You scrape a vote to remain and you never have another referendum (on anything ever again).

The moron classes will go back to their fags and beating the shit out of each other on a Friday night/dropping dead of old age in front of the X factor and we can make sure they never get a direct say in how society is run again ever.

We can then go back to moaning about a politicians but not really caring about politics as there are better things to do.

The problem with Brexit is it made politics important and than is an incredibly bad thing

Teague · **#2585** by **Teague** » Jul 23, 2018 4:40 pm

Tracer Tong wrote:
mrjonno wrote:
The polling evidence is pretty much identical to what it was just before the last referendum. It's plausible that if there were another referendum, the result would be the same

I doubt if that many people have changed their mind but I do strongly suspect how important people see it has changed.
The underclass/poorly educated would be a lot less bothered to turn out this time -voting twice in your life too much effort, a lot of the pensioners are dead and among the middle class they are likely to feel a lot less risk adverse and simply not bother to turn out next time.

The young realising how important it is would be more likely to turn out as well.

Getting people not to vote as ever bit a good tactic to win elections as getting them to vote

What evidence there is suggests that in the prior referendum new voters (n.b. not equivalent to the newly franchised) favoured leave, not remain. Further, leave supporters were more likely to turn out than remain supporters. I don't know of any evidence to suggest this pattern wouldn't be replicated in another referendum.

What factual evidence there is also states that those people were lied to, unequivocally, just like I pointed out above. Care to tell us what the leave voter who wanted to stay in the customs union will get out of Brexit?

Teague · **#2586** by **Teague** » Jul 23, 2018 4:41 pm

Tracer Tong wrote:
Teague wrote:
Tracer Tong wrote:

The polling evidence is pretty much identical to what it was just before the last referendum. It's plausible that if there were another referendum, the result would be the same.

is it?

Yeah. As before, there's a good chance that support for leave is being underestimated.

Perhaps it's the other way around now.

Teague · **#2587** by **Teague** » Jul 23, 2018 4:42 pm

mrjonno wrote:
The referendum shows exactly why you never want high turn outs in elections, a high turn out is very bad democracy as it means people are voting who really aren't qualified to do so

Except in the States where high voter turn-outs usually means a win for Democrats, so I've heard.

Tracer Tong · **#2588** by **Tracer Tong** » Jul 23, 2018 5:40 pm

Teague wrote:
Tracer Tong wrote:
Teague wrote:
Tracer Tong wrote:

The polling evidence is pretty much identical to what it was just before the last referendum. It's plausible that if there were another referendum, the result would be the same.

is it?

Yeah. As before, there's a good chance that support for leave is being underestimated.

Perhaps it's the other way around now.

Of course. All one can say is that current polling evidence does little to commend the view that there would be a different result if the referendum were re-run.

As it goes, I don't think another vote would be a good idea, though not because I'm concerned that the outcome wouldn't be my preference.

Scot Dutchy · **#2589** by **Scot Dutchy** » Jul 23, 2018 5:46 pm

Teague wrote:
mrjonno wrote:
The referendum shows exactly why you never want high turn outs in elections, a high turn out is very bad democracy as it means people are voting who really aren't qualified to do so

Except in the States where high voter turn-outs usually means a win for Democrats, so I've heard.

Not after the Russians have got their hands on it.

mrjonno · **#2590** by **mrjonno** » Jul 23, 2018 6:42 pm

You get high turn outs when people are pissed off, never make an important decision when you are pissed of (or extremely happy for that matter)

ronmcd · **#2591** by **ronmcd** » Jul 23, 2018 11:47 pm

Iain Macwhirter in the Herald:

Of course it’s all just Brussels scare-mongering hyped by the media Remoaners...or is it? My column on the week Brexit broke bad.

ronmcd · **#2592** by **ronmcd** » Jul 23, 2018 11:52 pm

There will be a hard border in Ireland, or the Irish Sea, because there has to be one, despite what Theresa May said in Ireland last week. No dealers, like the Tory MP John Redwood, insist this is not necessary. “We don't want to set up any borders” he says.

This is a new dimension in post-truth politics verging on the theatre of the absurd.The whole point about Brexit was to set up borders – that is what leaving the European Union means. And the UK's only land border with Europe runs right through the Emerald Isle. It’s 500 km long and has 300-odd crossing points. Moreover the Good Friday Agreement requires regulatory harmonisation north and south. Brexiteers seem to believe that everything will just continue as it does now, and that all those multilateral agreements Britain has entered into over the last 40 years will somehow still apply even as we leave the EU.

Remain-voting Scotland has been watching the slide to a no deal Brexit with mounting alarm. There was chaos in Westminster last week, as pairing arrangements were abandoned, Tory anti-Brexit rebels were threatened, and a clutch of die-hard pro-Brexit Labour MPs saved the day for Theresa May. It felt like being chained to a lunatic. Every constituency in Scotland voted to remain and the consequences of a no-deal Brexit for Scotland will be dire.

But not nearly as dire as it will be for the future of the United Kingdom.

In any General Election against the background of a no deal Brexit we can expect the SNP to return another super-landslide even greater than in 2015. Labour will be condemned for failing to defend the Scottish Parliament's powers, and for Jeremy Corbyn's refusal even to contemplate a soft Brexit solution involving continued membership of the customs union and single market. The Scottish Tory revival is already stone dead, and the Liberal Democrats are irrelevant. Scots will vote with fury for the party that has consistently opposed Brexit: the SNP. That could mean curtains for the Union, as Scots realise that they made a mistake in 2014. The Tory right better believe it: no deal means no more UK.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/1636 ... o-more-uk/

ronmcd · **#2593** by **ronmcd** » Jul 24, 2018 8:30 am

Independent:

Jeremy Corbyn to highlight economic 'benefit' of Brexit as he demands UK stop relying on 'cheap labour from abroad'
Labour leader will say plummeting pound can help manufacturers 'build things here again that for too long have been built abroad', in speech that will prompt comparisons with Donald Trump's 'America first' approach

Fucksake labour.

mrjonno · **#2594** by **mrjonno** » Jul 24, 2018 8:54 am

Jeremy Corbyn to highlight economic 'benefit' of Brexit as he demands UK stop relying on 'cheap labour from abroad

Cheap labour from abroad (even if it exists) means cheaper products for the consumer, higher prices is hardly an economic 'benefit'

zulumoose · **#2595** by **zulumoose** » Jul 24, 2018 9:04 am

In the U.K. an unemployed Brit on benefits can still afford the cheap stuff from China.

If the shifting economics of the "plummeting pound" gets him a menial job at minimum wage producing the same manufactured goods, they may be less affordable to him, and the plummeting pound means the UK is poorer overall, so the benefits he had before may be unavailable to others that he now has to support.

ronmcd · **#2596** by **ronmcd** » Jul 24, 2018 9:04 am

mrjonno wrote:
Jeremy Corbyn to highlight economic 'benefit' of Brexit as he demands UK stop relying on 'cheap labour from abroad

Cheap labour from abroad (even if it exists) means cheaper products for the consumer, higher prices is hardly an economic 'benefit'

What he meant to say was the ideological benefit he will personally gain from Brexit.

Thommo · **#2597** by **Thommo** » Jul 24, 2018 10:04 am

zulumoose wrote:In the U.K. an unemployed Brit on benefits can still afford the cheap stuff from China.

If the shifting economics of the "plummeting pound" gets him a menial job at minimum wage producing the same manufactured goods, they may be less affordable to him, and the plummeting pound means the UK is poorer overall, so the benefits he had before may be unavailable to others that he now has to support.

I think the thing that puzzles me about this is that the pound isn't currently plummeting.

Are you suggesting that if there's a hard Brexit the pound will fall medium to long term to a much lower price (against the Dollar and Euro)?

Scot Dutchy · **#2598** by **Scot Dutchy** » Jul 24, 2018 10:16 am

zulumoose · **#2599** by **zulumoose** » Jul 24, 2018 10:31 am

Thommo wrote:
zulumoose wrote:In the U.K. an unemployed Brit on benefits can still afford the cheap stuff from China.

If the shifting economics of the "plummeting pound" gets him a menial job at minimum wage producing the same manufactured goods, they may be less affordable to him, and the plummeting pound means the UK is poorer overall, so the benefits he had before may be unavailable to others that he now has to support.

I think the thing that puzzles me about this is that the pound isn't currently plummeting.

Are you suggesting that if there's a hard Brexit the pound will fall medium to long term to a much lower price (against the Dollar and Euro)?

I'm not suggesting the pound is plummeting.
It was a response to this:-

Labour leader will say plummeting pound can help manufacturers 'build things here again that for too long have been built abroad'

Sounds like he is expecting the pound to plummet after Brexit, and is trying to spin that as a good thing.
Barrel scraping of note.

Teague · **#2600** by **Teague** » Jul 24, 2018 10:40 am

Tracer Tong wrote:
Teague wrote:
Tracer Tong wrote:
Teague wrote:

is it?

Yeah. As before, there's a good chance that support for leave is being underestimated.

Perhaps it's the other way around now.

Of course. All one can say is that current polling evidence does little to commend the view that there would be a different result if the referendum were re-run.

As it goes, I don't think another vote would be a good idea, though not because I'm concerned that the outcome wouldn't be my preference.

Another vote is a perfectly fine idea given more people know what it means now - it would be the intelligent way to go about things rather than having to stock pile food and water. Given that both the Tory moron's and labour thicko's seem to both back leaving it now, rather ironically, needs to fall back on the public as the gov't fails us once again.

What amazes me is that we still have the same parties we've had for decades and more. Time for new party's with new, progressive and sensible ideas that include all of us.

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