The effects of Brexit??

How will Brexit affect UK and the rest of EU?

For discussion of politics, and what's going on in the world today.

Moderators: kiore, Blip, The_Metatron

The effects of Brexit??

#1  Postby Globe » Jun 26, 2016 1:55 pm

OK.... so I am a little concerned with the effects in MY local area. Naturally. ;)
In the municipality I live in there is about 10% British expats. Needless to say that ANY change to their status here would be devastating for the local community as a whole.

But that does not mean that I am not interested in the overall picture and how this will affect the UK and the rest of the EU.

Here is a comment from the local newspaper in English.

"Residents
The outlook for the Costa del Sol isn't just a worry from the tourism point of view. 50,530 Britons live in Malaga province, according to Spanish official statistics from the INE, spread over 96 of the 101 municipalities. 20 per cent live in Mijas and another 40 per cent call Fuengirola, Benalmádena, Estepona, Marbella or Alhaurín el Grande home.

For these residents, the withdrawal of their country of origin creates several uncertainties. The main one is economic, as the majority of people with British state pensions could see their income reduced. The United Kingdom keeps the value of retirement payments to its overseas nationals in the EU in line with the UK, but this doesn't happen with its retirees living in some other countries. The exact policy that the UK will adopt when it leaves the union isn't yet known.

A second source of worry is medical care. Although the terms of the withdrawal are still to be negotiated, the loss of the European health care provisions could mean the need to take out private insurance, a luxury that many cannot afford.
The exit agreement will also shape the future of UK residents in Spain from an administrative point of view, although it's certain that by losing their status as EU citizens, they will be forced to take out new residents' permits. The self-employed could face difficulties.

Residents' tax status is another factor that will need to be considered, as well as the voting rights of British residents in Spanish local elections, a right currently available inside the EU, as is the right to stand for election for local town halls."
"

http://www.surinenglish.com/20160624/ne ... 41724.html
"Justice will be served!
As soon as I can find you a piece that hasn't gone rotten." - Globe

I don't accept sexism, no matter what gender is being targeted with an -ism.
User avatar
Globe
THREAD STARTER
 
Posts: 6659
Age: 56
Female

Country: Spain NOT Denmark
Spain (es)
Print view this post

Re: The effects of Brexit??

#2  Postby ScholasticSpastic » Jun 27, 2016 4:45 pm

I've already seen some effects here in the USA: Stock market is down and mortgage interest rates have fallen along with it. I suspect that's about all we'll see, barring further silliness across the pond. Best of luck to those of you who are closer to the strangeness, though!
"You have to be a real asshole to quote yourself."
~ ScholasticSpastic
User avatar
ScholasticSpastic
 
Name: D-Money Sr.
Posts: 6354
Age: 48
Male

Country: Behind Zion's Curtain
United States (us)
Print view this post

Re: The effects of Brexit??

#3  Postby Globe » Jun 27, 2016 4:56 pm

Well... If there is anything europeans as a group are good at, it is silliness... The dangerous kind.

I know of leftwing, bleeding heart humanists ready to team up with the racists and right wing radicals, just get a chance to give EU a bloody nose.
"Justice will be served!
As soon as I can find you a piece that hasn't gone rotten." - Globe

I don't accept sexism, no matter what gender is being targeted with an -ism.
User avatar
Globe
THREAD STARTER
 
Posts: 6659
Age: 56
Female

Country: Spain NOT Denmark
Spain (es)
Print view this post

Re: The effects of Brexit??

#4  Postby ScholasticSpastic » Jun 27, 2016 5:03 pm

Bureaucracies are a tricky thing. There really isn't a way to organize millions or billions of people without one, but nobody wants to be a part of one. If there's one thing that nearly everyone can agree with, it's that bureaucracies suck. The EU, as an entity which unites disparate populations, can't help being extra sucky.

I see it like the anti-vaxxer problem: It's been so long since the troubles associated with not vaccinating have been big problems that people simply don't understand anymore why vaccination is such a good idea. Probably the EU is a victim of its success in much the same way vaccinations are.
"You have to be a real asshole to quote yourself."
~ ScholasticSpastic
User avatar
ScholasticSpastic
 
Name: D-Money Sr.
Posts: 6354
Age: 48
Male

Country: Behind Zion's Curtain
United States (us)
Print view this post

Re: The effects of Brexit??

#5  Postby aliihsanasl » Jun 27, 2016 5:04 pm

Right before the referendum I bought 45 gold coins, each cost 770 TL which is around 250 $ now I can sell each one for 825 TL. Every June gold prices increases in Turkey but this year there was a hype because of this referendum, there were rumours that if it ends up with leave decision all the sterlin will run towards gold. Exactly the same happened.

Sterlin was 4.3 TL and at the moment its 3.8 and still dropping.
"If someday my teachings conflict with science, choose science"

Mustafa Kemal ATATÜRK
User avatar
aliihsanasl
 
Posts: 5474
Age: 44
Male

Country: Turkey
Turkey (tr)
Print view this post

Re: The effects of Brexit??

#6  Postby scott1328 » Jun 27, 2016 8:01 pm

Why is it that all Britons lose their EU citizenship when the UK leaves the EU. Couldn't every current EU citizen retain their citizenship, while naturalized and new born UK citizens going forward do not gain EU citizenship?

This would allow for a smoothing of the cut-over and ease some of the travel pains and ex-pat issues. And allow those Britons wanting to relocate to exercise the very right that lead to the divorce in the first place? I can even see the EU allowing Britons to retain citizenship rights if they elect to pay a tax to the EU for the privilege, or those not desirous of those rights a one-time opt-out.
User avatar
scott1328
 
Name: Some call me... Tim
Posts: 8849
Male

United States (us)
Print view this post

Re: The effects of Brexit??

#7  Postby mrjonno » Jun 27, 2016 8:16 pm

scott1328 wrote:Why is it that all Britons lose their EU citizenship when the UK leaves the EU. Couldn't every current EU citizen retain their citizenship, while naturalized and new born UK citizens going forward do not gain EU citizenship?

This would allow for a smoothing of the cut-over and ease some of the travel pains and ex-pat issues. And allow those Britons wanting to relocate to exercise the very right that lead to the divorce in the first place? I can even see the EU allowing Britons to retain citizenship rights if they elect to pay a tax to the EU for the privilege, or those not desirous of those rights a one-time opt-out.


While I have used the term European citizenship, that's more of an ideal (that half the UK doesnt share) its really a club which we are leaving.

That said I do feel like I'm losing my citizenship, its as important to me as I bet American citizenship is to Americans
User avatar
mrjonno
 
Posts: 21006
Age: 52
Male

United Kingdom (uk)
Print view this post

Re: The effects of Brexit??

#8  Postby Corneel » Jun 27, 2016 8:17 pm

scott1328 wrote:Why is it that all Britons lose their EU citizenship when the UK leaves the EU. Couldn't every current EU citizen retain their citizenship, while naturalized and new born UK citizens going forward do not gain EU citizenship?

This would allow for a smoothing of the cut-over and ease some of the travel pains and ex-pat issues. And allow those Britons wanting to relocate to exercise the very right that lead to the divorce in the first place? I can even see the EU allowing Britons to retain citizenship rights if they elect to pay a tax to the EU for the privilege, or those not desirous of those rights a one-time opt-out.

There is no such thing as EU citizenship.
What exists is citizenship of an EU member state. If and/or when the UK leaves the EU, UK citizens aren't citizens of an EU member state anymore. There is no change in citizenship, there is a change in what that citizenship entails.
"Damn it! Why am I arguing shit on the internet again!?"
"'cuz sometimes you just need a cumshot of stupid to the face?"

(from Something Positive)

The best movie theme ever

Ceterum censeo Praesidem Anguimanum esse demovendum
User avatar
Corneel
 
Posts: 1754
Age: 52
Male

Country: Mali
Belgium (be)
Print view this post

Re: The effects of Brexit??

#9  Postby scott1328 » Jun 27, 2016 8:25 pm

Corneel wrote:
scott1328 wrote:Why is it that all Britons lose their EU citizenship when the UK leaves the EU. Couldn't every current EU citizen retain their citizenship, while naturalized and new born UK citizens going forward do not gain EU citizenship?

This would allow for a smoothing of the cut-over and ease some of the travel pains and ex-pat issues. And allow those Britons wanting to relocate to exercise the very right that lead to the divorce in the first place? I can even see the EU allowing Britons to retain citizenship rights if they elect to pay a tax to the EU for the privilege, or those not desirous of those rights a one-time opt-out.

There is no such thing as EU citizenship.
What exists is citizenship of an EU member state. If and/or when the UK leaves the EU, UK citizens aren't citizens of an EU member state anymore. There is no change in citizenship, there is a change in what that citizenship entails.

but why does it have to be that way?
User avatar
scott1328
 
Name: Some call me... Tim
Posts: 8849
Male

United States (us)
Print view this post

Re: The effects of Brexit??

#10  Postby Corneel » Jun 27, 2016 8:41 pm

scott1328 wrote:
Corneel wrote:
scott1328 wrote:Why is it that all Britons lose their EU citizenship when the UK leaves the EU. Couldn't every current EU citizen retain their citizenship, while naturalized and new born UK citizens going forward do not gain EU citizenship?

This would allow for a smoothing of the cut-over and ease some of the travel pains and ex-pat issues. And allow those Britons wanting to relocate to exercise the very right that lead to the divorce in the first place? I can even see the EU allowing Britons to retain citizenship rights if they elect to pay a tax to the EU for the privilege, or those not desirous of those rights a one-time opt-out.

There is no such thing as EU citizenship.
What exists is citizenship of an EU member state. If and/or when the UK leaves the EU, UK citizens aren't citizens of an EU member state anymore. There is no change in citizenship, there is a change in what that citizenship entails.

but why does it have to be that way?

Because that's the way it is?
OTH I suppose that the status of UK expatriated in EU countries will be part of an overall deal with some courtesy extended to those UK citizens that are long term residents. Of course, I also expect such a deal being contingent on reciprocity, that means the same courtesy being extended to citizens of EU countries in the UK.
"Damn it! Why am I arguing shit on the internet again!?"
"'cuz sometimes you just need a cumshot of stupid to the face?"

(from Something Positive)

The best movie theme ever

Ceterum censeo Praesidem Anguimanum esse demovendum
User avatar
Corneel
 
Posts: 1754
Age: 52
Male

Country: Mali
Belgium (be)
Print view this post

Re: The effects of Brexit??

#11  Postby ScholasticSpastic » Jun 27, 2016 8:42 pm

Corneel wrote:Of course, I also expect such a deal being contingent on reciprocity, that means the same courtesy being extended to citizens of EU countries in the UK.

In other words, you're fucked, Scott. ;)
"You have to be a real asshole to quote yourself."
~ ScholasticSpastic
User avatar
ScholasticSpastic
 
Name: D-Money Sr.
Posts: 6354
Age: 48
Male

Country: Behind Zion's Curtain
United States (us)
Print view this post

Re: The effects of Brexit??

#12  Postby Byron » Jun 27, 2016 9:27 pm

If Brexit Britain remains in the EEA (as is overwhelmingly likely), free movement arrangements won't be noticeably changed from EU citizenship. It may even be possible to negotiate continuing EU citizenship for those already abroad.

If, through a combination of Eurocrat megalomania and a nativist coup of the Conservative Party, British citizens are stripped of all preferential treatment, and obliged to apply for visas to work in Europe, it'll be political suicide for any government. If that's truly the only option on offer, even if Scotland and Northern Ireland have gone by that point, pressure for a second referendum will become overwhelming.
I don't believe in the no-win scenario.
Kirk, Enterprise

Ms. Lovelace © Ms. Padua, resident of 2D Goggles
User avatar
Byron
 
Posts: 12881
Male

Country: Albion
Print view this post

Re: The effects of Brexit??

#13  Postby Veida » Jun 27, 2016 9:34 pm

There are a lot of UK Citizens living here that are now applying for Swedish citizenship. The UK leaving is (or may be) messing up the situation for UK citizens now living in EU countries, as well as citizens of EU countries now living in the UK.
Veida
 
Posts: 854

Sweden (se)
Print view this post

Re: The effects of Brexit??

#14  Postby GrahamH » Jun 27, 2016 9:36 pm

scott1328 wrote:Why is it that all Britons lose their EU citizenship when the UK leaves the EU. Couldn't every current EU citizen retain their citizenship, while naturalized and new born UK citizens going forward do not gain EU citizenship?

This would allow for a smoothing of the cut-over and ease some of the travel pains and ex-pat issues. And allow those Britons wanting to relocate to exercise the very right that lead to the divorce in the first place? I can even see the EU allowing Britons to retain citizenship rights if they elect to pay a tax to the EU for the privilege, or those not desirous of those rights a one-time opt-out.


Can you naturalise or take up dual citizenship?

Clearly you need to be a citizen of an EU country to be an EU citizen.

This might be helpful:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... -in-europe
Why do you think that?
GrahamH
 
Posts: 20419

Print view this post

Re: The effects of Brexit??

#15  Postby Byron » Jun 27, 2016 9:39 pm

Ireland's passport authorities are also under siege!

As the Irish govt. have sensibly reminded people, there'll be no change in citizenship status for at least two years, likely longer. In that time, British citizens remain EU citizens, with full rights of movement, work and abode. If that status is ever seriously threatened, it'll bring down the British government, and halt Brexit negotiatons in their tracks.
I don't believe in the no-win scenario.
Kirk, Enterprise

Ms. Lovelace © Ms. Padua, resident of 2D Goggles
User avatar
Byron
 
Posts: 12881
Male

Country: Albion
Print view this post

Re: The effects of Brexit??

#16  Postby Veida » Jun 27, 2016 9:44 pm

Byron wrote:Ireland's passport authorities are also under siege!

As the Irish govt. have sensibly reminded people, there'll be no change in citizenship status for at least two years, likely longer. In that time, British citizens remain EU citizens, with full rights of movement, work and abode. If that status is ever seriously threatened, it'll bring down the British government, and halt Brexit negotiatons in their tracks.


Why do you think it will bring down the British government? Will a it change the minds of those 52% ?
Veida
 
Posts: 854

Sweden (se)
Print view this post

Re: The effects of Brexit??

#17  Postby Byron » Jun 27, 2016 9:46 pm

GrahamH wrote:
scott1328 wrote:Why is it that all Britons lose their EU citizenship when the UK leaves the EU. Couldn't every current EU citizen retain their citizenship, while naturalized and new born UK citizens going forward do not gain EU citizenship?

This would allow for a smoothing of the cut-over and ease some of the travel pains and ex-pat issues. And allow those Britons wanting to relocate to exercise the very right that lead to the divorce in the first place? I can even see the EU allowing Britons to retain citizenship rights if they elect to pay a tax to the EU for the privilege, or those not desirous of those rights a one-time opt-out.

Can you naturalise or take up dual citizenship?

Clearly you need to be a citizen of an EU country to be an EU citizen.

This might be helpful:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... -in-europe

For pragmatic reasons if no other, the EU is gonna want to maintain rights of British citizens in Europe: as noted in the article, they can appeal to the Vienna Convention if they're resident abroad at time of Brexit: since any restrictions would be announced well in advance, it'd lead to a mass exodus of British citizens to EU countries (just witness the rush in naturalization petitions despite any change in status being years away, if ever). The British government will likewise be desperate to avoid a brain drain (of citizens: its own mind will likely have gone long ago).

And that's assuming that it somehow survived the popular outrage at stripping rights from British citizens, itself unlikely in the extreme.
I don't believe in the no-win scenario.
Kirk, Enterprise

Ms. Lovelace © Ms. Padua, resident of 2D Goggles
User avatar
Byron
 
Posts: 12881
Male

Country: Albion
Print view this post

Re: The effects of Brexit??

#18  Postby Byron » Jun 27, 2016 9:52 pm

Veida wrote:Why do you think it will bring down the British government? Will a it change the minds of those 52% ?

Unless they do something spectacularly stupid like triggering Article 50 before negotiations are signed, sealed and delivered, yup, ball's in their court (the EU's already taken legal advice and given up trying to force it).

As noted above, EU member states aren't gonna want to impose restrictions either: their own citizens want to live and work in Britain; and they'll want to avoid British citizens flooding to the continent before the Brexit clock runs down.

The only way it happens is if there's a perfect storm of unhinged "punish 'em!" Eurocrats and frothing nativists in Whitehall: even then, it's hard to see how they'd overrule the elected governments of EU member states.
I don't believe in the no-win scenario.
Kirk, Enterprise

Ms. Lovelace © Ms. Padua, resident of 2D Goggles
User avatar
Byron
 
Posts: 12881
Male

Country: Albion
Print view this post

Re: The effects of Brexit??

#19  Postby Corneel » Jun 27, 2016 9:56 pm

Byron wrote:Unless they do something spectacularly stupid like triggering Article 50 before negotiations are signed, sealed and delivered, yup, ball's in their court (the EU's already taken legal advice and given up trying to force it).

How do you square that with today's announcement by Merkel, Hollande and Renzi (and Tusk and Juncker concurred) that there'll be no negotiations before article 50 is triggered?
"Damn it! Why am I arguing shit on the internet again!?"
"'cuz sometimes you just need a cumshot of stupid to the face?"

(from Something Positive)

The best movie theme ever

Ceterum censeo Praesidem Anguimanum esse demovendum
User avatar
Corneel
 
Posts: 1754
Age: 52
Male

Country: Mali
Belgium (be)
Print view this post

Re: The effects of Brexit??

#20  Postby Byron » Jun 27, 2016 10:06 pm

Corneel wrote:
Byron wrote:Unless they do something spectacularly stupid like triggering Article 50 before negotiations are signed, sealed and delivered, yup, ball's in their court (the EU's already taken legal advice and given up trying to force it).

How do you square that with today's announcement by Merkel, Hollande and Renzi (and Tusk and Juncker concurred) that there'll be no negotiations before article 50 is triggered?

Stalemate: longer it drags on, more time there is for cooler heads to prevail.

It's clear that Brexit should never have been put to the people before a clear exit strategy was negotiated with the EU and advocated by the Leave camp. If the EU insist that triggering Article 50's a precondition of even beginning exit negotiations, simply don't hold them, and go back to the British people (and this time, require unanimity among the UK's four constituent nations).
I don't believe in the no-win scenario.
Kirk, Enterprise

Ms. Lovelace © Ms. Padua, resident of 2D Goggles
User avatar
Byron
 
Posts: 12881
Male

Country: Albion
Print view this post

Next

Return to News, Politics & Current Affairs

Who is online

Users viewing this topic: No registered users and 1 guest

cron