The effects of Brexit??

How will Brexit affect UK and the rest of EU?

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Re: The effects of Brexit??

#101  Postby zoon » Jul 02, 2016 1:38 pm

Calilasseia wrote:Bullshit.

First, the reason many are enduring "crap jobs, low wages and benefits", is because the Panama Papers parasite rich preferred to squirrel billions out of the country to spend on mansions, bling yachts and private jets, instead of paying the taxes that would have funded proper investment in social infrastructure, including education. As for the idea that they are "happy" in their poverty, this is the sort of pernicious propaganda that we'd expect to see coming from the Iain Drunken Shit school of Tory stereotyping. If you think those people wouldn't prefer to be given a chance to earn a decent living wage without handouts, then you obviously haven't moved outside your comfortable rentier circle of golf clubs and subsidised corporate entertainment.

As for those who "brought the rest of us down a bit", the blame with that lies with Johnson and Farage, two rich, privileged wankers who were happy to peddle lies in order to further their own pursuit of unearned wealth. At least Johnson has woken up to the manner in which he's shit on his own career as well as the country, whilst dodgy Dulwich wheeler-dealer Farage, who unlike some of the people in the EU he sneered at, never had a proper job himself (please, a fucking commodities speculator?) continues to pretend in public that he's some sort of hero of the masses, whilst doubtless laughing all the way to the bank as he coins it in more commodities speculation.

What actually happened, was that entirely justifiable discontent at fake "austerity" economics (fake because the rich aren't experiencing any "austerity", unless you count having to keep your his and hers Bentleys an extra year before moving on to the shiny new model) was hijacked by the Panama Papers parasite rich, with a diversionary campaign aimed at blaming "migrants" for our woes instead of the real culprits, and sadly, it succeeded.

Without disagreeing with your view of the Panama Papers rich, I think the underlying problem is not so much tax evasion as technology and globalisation, which have led to the disappearance of whole industries across the developed world, leaving the millions of people who used to run them without worthwhile jobs. There's a piece today on the BBC website here about a hollowed-out Ohio town which was thriving forty years ago. Nobody seems to have much idea of what to do about it. I most certainly agree with your opinion of those who hijacked the discontent in the UK.
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Re: The effects of Brexit??

#102  Postby fisherman » Jul 02, 2016 1:48 pm

tuco wrote:The market would stay large, transparent, stable and attractive enough even without the UK 17%. Its the UK who would have to negotiate everything on its own. However, as mrjonno noted in the other thread, the rationality bubble popped in the UK. Its beyond any reason to think there is something to be gained from exit. If it also pops in the rest of EU, and the world, we can kick ourselves to grass ;)

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edit: They want to send mongrels home and who will replace them? 4.7% unemployment and they cry about internal immigration. I guess you want external then, mongrels. Wtf is wrong with you?


I agree the EU market is a huge and desirable trade partner but the current deals have certainly become more complicated with one of the larger EU state’s future relationship know unknown. It seems reasonable that the current trade deals may be delayed until there is clarity on impacts.

Once what has been gained and what has been lost has become clearer, only then will the UK be able to say if it was worth it or not. :dunno:
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Re: The effects of Brexit??

#103  Postby tuco » Jul 02, 2016 1:52 pm

Worth while jobs .. ask people what they want to do, let them do it and pay for it ~ guaranteed income as debated elsewhere. Tax the rich to fund this.

There are very few people who do not want to do anything, productive, at all. Instead of paying welfare let those on it, who want to do something productive, produce at least something, even if inefficiently. They will be happier, send the money back on market by purchasing services and goods anyway providing even more opportunities for businesses and individuals.

Lets say someone says .. I want to take care of my garden .. Take care of your garden, make it nice. Maybe get together with someone and in return for decent pay you could make it nice elsewhere too.

When we were in China, building stuff, we carried plywood boards by ourselves 1 plywood 1 worker. Chinese did it in four and someone even took a pic of us for local newspaper lol Not sure what the text said but maybe .. this is the future, comrades!

This cannot be so complex, cmon PhDs.

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edit: almost forgot .. lovely time for yearly repost:

Why Socialism?, by Albert Einstein - http://monthlyreview.org/2009/05/01/why-socialism/
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Re: The effects of Brexit??

#104  Postby tuco » Jul 03, 2016 10:26 am

Back to reality ..

I've been reading little on the UK population growth and its clear that 50-70% of population growth in past, and future, decades, is due to migration, making the UK, along with other 3 EU countries, fastest growing country in the EU.

The effect of Brexit, assuming restriction on free movement, would then result in lower population growth(?).

Now is lower population growth desirable, from economic point of view? Especially in context of ageing population/pensions.


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Political challenges relating to an aging population: Key issues for the 2015 Parliament - https://www.parliament.uk/business/publ ... opulation/

The Impact of Migration on UK Population Growth - http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.u ... ion-growth

Britain’s Population : Can We Absorb the Increase? - https://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/11/08/br ... -increase/
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Re: The effects of Brexit??

#105  Postby mrjonno » Jul 03, 2016 10:33 am

Population growth in the UK is directly proportional to the quality of health care (keeping old people alive) and the state of economy (people come here to work).

As both are linked, if population growth goes down we are all screwed
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Re: The effects of Brexit??

#106  Postby fisherman » Jul 03, 2016 11:28 am

tuco wrote:Back to reality ..

I've been reading little on the UK population growth and its clear that 50-70% of population growth in past, and future, decades, is due to migration, making the UK, along with other 3 EU countries, fastest growing country in the EU.

The effect of Brexit, assuming restriction on free movement, would then result in lower population growth(?).

Now is lower population growth desirable, from economic point of view? Especially in context of ageing population/pensions.


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Political challenges relating to an aging population: Key issues for the 2015 Parliament - https://www.parliament.uk/business/publ ... opulation/

The Impact of Migration on UK Population Growth - http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.u ... ion-growth

Britain’s Population : Can We Absorb the Increase? - https://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/11/08/br ... -increase/


A reducing rate of immigration will at some point put pressure on wages to rise, directly increasing disposable income. At the same time that would reduce the country's GDP growth rate. Depends on if you are an employer or an employee which of those is more desirable.
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Re: The effects of Brexit??

#107  Postby Scot Dutchy » Jul 03, 2016 11:34 am

The whole immigration thing was the biggest red herring they could roll out. They failed on every other argument but like so many questions in the whole Brexit affair everything from a very complicated subject was reduced to one liners.
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Re: The effects of Brexit??

#108  Postby tuco » Jul 03, 2016 1:20 pm

fisherman wrote:
[Reveal] Spoiler: "too long"
tuco wrote:Back to reality ..

I've been reading little on the UK population growth and its clear that 50-70% of population growth in past, and future, decades, is due to migration, making the UK, along with other 3 EU countries, fastest growing country in the EU.

The effect of Brexit, assuming restriction on free movement, would then result in lower population growth(?).

Now is lower population growth desirable, from economic point of view? Especially in context of ageing population/pensions.


----

Political challenges relating to an aging population: Key issues for the 2015 Parliament - https://www.parliament.uk/business/publ ... opulation/

The Impact of Migration on UK Population Growth - http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.u ... ion-growth

Britain’s Population : Can We Absorb the Increase? - https://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/11/08/br ... -increase/


A reducing rate of immigration will at some point put pressure on wages to rise, directly increasing disposable income. At the same time that would reduce the country's GDP growth rate. Depends on if you are an employer or an employee which of those is more desirable.


Also it could force some businesses to move due to lack of (suitable) workforce.
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Re: The effects of Brexit??

#109  Postby fisherman » Jul 03, 2016 1:41 pm

Agreed, though that would depend on what type of workforce is required, if it is a trained / educated workforce that is required then they will unlikely be prevented from immigrating.
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Re: The effects of Brexit??

#110  Postby tuco » Jul 03, 2016 1:58 pm

That is the thing, they would not be prevented but would they be willing? With the UK outside of the EU legal and social system, I'd imagine it would be easier and perhaps even more beneficial for such people (with "EU passports") to go elsewhere. All this is based on the UK doing exceptionally well. There is no lets experience of UK being "outsider" in several past decades.

What is the structure of migrant workforce atm?

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edit: freedom of movement is not only ideological/political argument but also economic one.

The Treaty of Paris (1951)[4] establishing the European Coal and Steel Community established a right to free movement for workers in these industries and the Treaty of Rome (1957)[5] provided a right for the free movement of workers within the European Economic Community.


Underlying these developments is a tension "between the image of the Community worker as a mobile unit of production, contributing to the creation of a single market and to the economic prosperity of Europe"


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_o ... pean_Union
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Re: The effects of Brexit??

#111  Postby fisherman » Jul 03, 2016 2:37 pm

I think this then goes back to what is possible and what forms of controls could be negotiated and agreed. If there is zero free movement then your scenario above may apply. If the controls are limited and partial, perhaps applying limits on unskilled workers in some way, then certain sectors such as automotive, aerospace, stem and banking, could experience a minor impact perhaps, with other industries relying on unskilled workers being hit hard?

Sure is some ripe looking cherries there :lol:

Still too many unknowns.
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Re: The effects of Brexit??

#112  Postby tuco » Jul 03, 2016 2:42 pm

As Mr Fico, Slovak PM, said today I would also like to have only Slovak produce in Slovakian school kitchens.

Well, yes unless scenarios are given we can speculate about anything.
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Re: The effects of Brexit??

#113  Postby tuco » Jul 04, 2016 1:59 pm

George Osborne Plans to Cut U.K. Corporate Taxes in Wake of Brexit

LONDON—U.K. Treasury chief George Osborne plans to cut the corporation tax in the U.K. to just 15% or less in an effort to lure business investment as the economy reels from Britons’ shock decision to exit the European Union.


http://www.wsj.com/articles/george-osbo ... 1467571398

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They will not be prevented, they will be emm subsidised. gg
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Re: The effects of Brexit??

#114  Postby mcgruff » Jul 04, 2016 2:10 pm

Disaster capitalism: the shocking doctrine Tories can’t wait to unleash

As Naomi Klein argued in The Shock Doctrine, disaster capitalism operates by delivering massive shocks to the system and then using the ensuing period of anarchy, fear and confusion to reassemble the pieces of what it has broken into a new configuration. This is what was done in the aftermath of the financial crisis, and it is ultimately what is at stake in Brexit. The right wing of the Tory party has succeeded in throwing the UK’s affairs into complete confusion. The losses may be enormous: the preservation of the United Kingdom in its present form is far from certain. The winnings may, at first sight, seem modest: £350m a week will not be available to save the NHS; the free movement of labour will have to be conceded; and Britain will lose its place at the EU negotiating table. But the potential winnings for ruthless politicians are nevertheless enormous: the prize is the opportunity to rework an almost infinite range of detailed arrangements both inside and outside the UK, to redraw at breakneck speed the legal framework that will govern all aspects of our lives

...

the free-market thinktank the Centre for Policy Studies (CPS) revealed the plan B that has otherwise remained hidden from view. “The weakness of the Labour party and the resolution of the EU question have created a unique political opportunity to drive through a wide-ranging … revolution on a scale similar to that of the 1980s … This must include removing unnecessary regulatory burdens on businesses, such as those related to climate directives and investment fund[s].”

...

During coming months and years, the unfolding crisis will provide countless pretexts for similar emergency measure that benefit business and roll back the state. So there will be no vote in parliament, no second referendum, no fresh elections: just the most massive legislative programme in history within the current parliament, in which the Tories command an absolute majority based on 37% of the votes cast in the last general election. So much for taking back democratic control.

more -->
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Re: The effects of Brexit??

#115  Postby mcgruff » Jul 04, 2016 2:11 pm

I've called Brexit a right-wing coup which isn't quite right. It's an enabling move for a right-wing coup.
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Re: The effects of Brexit??

#116  Postby Scot Dutchy » Jul 04, 2016 2:27 pm

mcgruff wrote:I've called Brexit a right-wing coup which isn't quite right. It's an enabling move for a right-wing coup.


It was all along obvious the only ones to gain would be the 1%.
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Re: The effects of Brexit??

#117  Postby mrjonno » Jul 04, 2016 3:38 pm

The main effect of Brexit is I'm trying to be nice to Scottish Nationalists which I wasn't before Brexit :)
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Re: The effects of Brexit??

#118  Postby Byron » Jul 05, 2016 5:17 am

zoon wrote:Without disagreeing with [Calilasseia's] view of the Panama Papers rich, I think the underlying problem is not so much tax evasion as technology and globalisation, which have led to the disappearance of whole industries across the developed world, leaving the millions of people who used to run them without worthwhile jobs. There's a piece today on the BBC website here about a hollowed-out Ohio town which was thriving forty years ago. Nobody seems to have much idea of what to do about it. I most certainly agree with your opinion of those who hijacked the discontent in the UK.

The long-term solution is to raise living standards across the globe, so countries are competing on efficiency and quality, not undercutting and exploitation, but that's a very long-term solution.

Meanwhile, however much it offends free market dogma, there's a place for tariffs and trade blocs, for that great bogeyman, protectionism: but protectionism must never come to be relied on, or viewed as anything but a temporary if necessary evil. To avoid isolationism and stagnation, it's gotta be allied with aiding developing countries, enlightened self-interest to make their citizens' lives better, and to stop them from driving domestic industries to ruin. A Marshall Aid scale plan, tied to political reforms.

Equally crucial is the ruthless prosecution of the monopolist behavior of the mega-rich, and strong regulation of markets. And, for those at home, government investment and incentive to cushion the blow, with focus on precision engineering and industry. Rust belt areas blight nations.

You get those things with international cooperation. Unlovable as much of the EU is, in an interconnected world, it and similar organizations are necessary. Attempting to pull up the drawbridge, as Brexit's done, is the worst possible solution, one that'll fail (goods and capital will continue to flow), and drive nations into an isolationist mire that, if not reversed, will see them fragment and go under the tide of globalization.
I don't believe in the no-win scenario.
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