Brexit

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Re: Brexit

#1581  Postby TopCat » Jan 12, 2018 5:28 pm

Thommo wrote:As a point of reference, last time the polls looked like those two do, what was Nigel Farage's opinion on whether he could win?

Just before the referendum, he seemed to think Remain would win:


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/ho ... 98526.html

Nigel Farage has said "it looks like Remain will edge it" as polling stations closed across the UK in the EU referendum.
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Re: Brexit

#1582  Postby Teague » Jan 12, 2018 6:04 pm

Thommo wrote:So your primary evidence for Nigel Farage's views is 744 people giving up their passport.

Yeah.

As far as the polls (conducted after his comments, so he couldn't even have seen them) go, yeah, there's a chance the referendum would be lost (for the Brexiteers). That doesn't mean Farage believes he would lose, does it? As a point of reference, last time the polls looked like those two do, what was Nigel Farage's opinion on whether he could win?


Then you would be assuming that a politician isn't privvy to other information and polls conducted as it wasn't the only one but it's more evidence to base a prediction on that anything else I've seen. Maybe you have something better?
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Re: Brexit

#1583  Postby Scot Dutchy » Jan 12, 2018 6:46 pm

Poor old Nige.

Nigel Farage has MEP salary docked to recoup misspent EU funds

Exclusive: former Ukip leader will lose £35,500 in total – the amount he paid assistant who is believed to have not been working on EU matters


Caught fiddling again. Naughty boy.
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Re: Brexit

#1584  Postby Thommo » Jan 12, 2018 7:13 pm

Teague wrote:
Thommo wrote:So your primary evidence for Nigel Farage's views is 744 people giving up their passport.

Yeah.

As far as the polls (conducted after his comments, so he couldn't even have seen them) go, yeah, there's a chance the referendum would be lost (for the Brexiteers). That doesn't mean Farage believes he would lose, does it? As a point of reference, last time the polls looked like those two do, what was Nigel Farage's opinion on whether he could win?


Then you would be assuming that a politician isn't privvy to other information and polls conducted as it wasn't the only one but it's more evidence to base a prediction on that anything else I've seen. Maybe you have something better?


Of course, as I said, we can base our opinion of why Nigel Farage might want another referendum on the incredibly consistent and incredibly public views he's explained at painful length for something like a decade.

Regardless of my assumptions recall that this whole thing is regarding your assumption, explicitly stated: "I assume he's realised how bad it is if we leave the EU but obviously can't say anything and this is literally the only card he can play to support another vote and then pretending to be butthurt when the 2nd referrendum keeps us in the EU."

This is staggeringly unlikely. He's also walked back his statement (which wasn't actually as strong as portrayed in some outlets anyway) today. There's literally no reason to assume that he doesn't want to leave the EU now, notwithstanding any quibbles about "would" and "could".
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Re: Brexit

#1585  Postby ronmcd » Jan 15, 2018 2:56 pm

I read - cant remember where - that Farage's intervention is about his fear that the soft brexiteer Tories (along with those opposed to brexit) in Parliament are gaining the upper hand, and can push through a "soft" brexit, something he doesn't want. Rather than Farage having any change of mind over the issue.
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Re: Brexit

#1586  Postby Scot Dutchy » Jan 15, 2018 3:33 pm

The Brexshitters wont be happy with this.

Brexit: EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier to meet with Remain-supporting Tory rebels

A cross-party delegation including Labour MPs is visiting Brussels
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Re: Brexit

#1587  Postby Scot Dutchy » Jan 25, 2018 11:43 am

Here is an updated list of EU negotiations:

OVERVIEW OF FTA AND OTHER TRADE NEGOTIATIONS

Remember this is on top of the already 125 other negotiated FTA's.

The UK has not even started yet.
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Re: Brexit

#1588  Postby Scot Dutchy » Jan 25, 2018 11:45 am

Scot Dutchy wrote:Here is an updated list of EU negotiations:

OVERVIEW OF FTA AND OTHER TRADE NEGOTIATIONS

OVERVIEW OF ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENTS

Remember this is on top of the already 125 other negotiated FTA's.

The UK has not even started yet.
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Re: Brexit

#1589  Postby Scot Dutchy » Jan 25, 2018 11:58 am

They way the world trade is going the UK is going to have to negotiate with huge trade blocs.
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Re: Brexit

#1590  Postby Tracer Tong » Jan 25, 2018 1:25 pm

Scot Dutchy wrote:Here is an updated list of EU negotiations:

OVERVIEW OF FTA AND OTHER TRADE NEGOTIATIONS

Remember this is on top of the already 125 other negotiated FTA's.

The UK has not even started yet.


Of course it has: it's party to all the free trade agreements the EU is party to. That goes for all EU member states: they sign individually, the negotiations having been conducted by the Commission.
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Re: Brexit

#1591  Postby Scot Dutchy » Jan 25, 2018 2:21 pm

When they leave they wont have any or have you not read art 50 yet.
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Re: Brexit

#1592  Postby Tracer Tong » Jan 25, 2018 4:46 pm

Scot Dutchy wrote:When they leave they wont have any


How do you know? As I said, all EU member states sign trade deals negotiated by the Commission on an individual basis, so the future status of these agreements is far from clear.

Scot Dutchy wrote:
or have you not read art 50 yet.


Sure. What of it?
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Re: Brexit

#1593  Postby Scot Dutchy » Jan 25, 2018 5:01 pm

Art 50(3)
3. The Treaties shall cease to applyto the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.


Do you understand? All treaties cease to apply after the leaving date.
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Re: Brexit

#1594  Postby Tracer Tong » Jan 25, 2018 6:04 pm

Scot Dutchy wrote:Art 50(3)
3. The Treaties shall cease to applyto the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.


Do you understand? All treaties cease to apply after the leaving date.


Yeah: all treaties cease to apply. But we're talking about trade deals between the EU's members and other countries, not the application of EU treaties to its members. So I've no idea what you're getting at.
Die Alten sind weder die Juden, noch die Christen, noch die Engländer der Poesie. Sie sind nicht ein willkürlich auserwähltes Kunstvolk Gottes; noch haben sie den alleinseligmachenden Schönheitsglauben; noch besitzen sie ein Dichtungsmonopol.
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Re: Brexit

#1595  Postby Scot Dutchy » Jan 26, 2018 5:47 pm

Tracer Tong wrote:
Scot Dutchy wrote:Art 50(3)
3. The Treaties shall cease to applyto the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.


Do you understand? All treaties cease to apply after the leaving date.


Yeah: all treaties cease to apply. But we're talking about trade deals between the EU's members and other countries, not the application of EU treaties to its members. So I've no idea what you're getting at.


Countries in the EU do not have bilateral treaties. Just learn something about the EU will you.
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Re: Brexit

#1596  Postby Tracer Tong » Jan 26, 2018 9:04 pm

Scot Dutchy wrote:
Tracer Tong wrote:
Scot Dutchy wrote:Art 50(3)
3. The Treaties shall cease to applyto the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.


Do you understand? All treaties cease to apply after the leaving date.


Yeah: all treaties cease to apply. But we're talking about trade deals between the EU's members and other countries, not the application of EU treaties to its members. So I've no idea what you're getting at.


Countries in the EU do not have bilateral treaties.


Who said they did? Certainly not me.

Scot Dutchy wrote:Just learn something about the EU will you.


Advice you would do well to follow.
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Re: Brexit

#1597  Postby GrahamH » Jan 27, 2018 12:26 am

Voters support the idea of holding a second EU referendum by a 16-point margin, according to one of the largest nationwide opinion polls since the Brexit vote.
The ICM survey, conducted as part of a Guardian reporting project, found 47% of people would favour having a final say on Brexit once the terms of the UK’s departure are known, while 34% oppose reopening the question.
Excluding the roughly one-fifth who do not have a view gives a lead of 58% to 42% for a second referendum, showing rising interest in the idea as concern grows over the direction of recent negotiations.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/b ... nt-margin-–-poll/ar-AAvdcxS?li=AAmiR2Z&ocid=spartandhp
Why do you think that?
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Re: Brexit

#1598  Postby Scot Dutchy » Jan 29, 2018 4:04 pm

These are the terms of transition as laid down and agreed upon in two minutes by the EU27:
http://www.consilium.europa.eu//media/32504/xt21004-ad01re02en18.pdf
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Re: Brexit

#1599  Postby Teague » Jan 29, 2018 4:46 pm

They'd be idiots not to call a 2nd referendum. Do we want to show the world how stupid we are again as if Brexit wasn't bad enough. Now people are actually clued up on the whole thing look how the numbers have swung in an overwhelming majority to now stay in Europe. Even Farage called for a 2nd one so what are we waiting for?
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Re: Brexit

#1600  Postby Tracer Tong » Jan 29, 2018 5:54 pm

Teague wrote:They'd be idiots not to call a 2nd referendum. Do we want to show the world how stupid we are again as if Brexit wasn't bad enough. Now people are actually clued up on the whole thing look how the numbers have swung in an overwhelming majority to now stay in Europe. Even Farage called for a 2nd one so what are we waiting for?


The numbers haven’t swung that way at all, though. The latest polling shows just what the pre-referendum polling showed: a small lead for ‘Remain’.
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