Brexit

tuco · **#8261** by **tuco** » Jun 21, 2019 10:34 pm

More .. exciting .. already, it seems.

ronmcd · **#8262** by **ronmcd** » Jun 21, 2019 10:41 pm

Beatsong wrote:
ronmcd wrote:Indeed, why would voters who support brexit vote Labour when there are much 'better' options for them? And those who oppose brexit won't vote Labour if they aren't opposing brexit.

I'm not seeing how Labour win any GE. I think it would be a landslide Tory win, with Libdems getting the highest % of remain votes but not a huge number of seats. Labour some seats, but focussed pro brexit voters all voting Tory after an agreement with Farage and Boris is home and dry.

You seem to be assuming that the Labour policy going into a GE would be the same as it is now. And that despite the fact that the very conditions and events that have led to the GE occurring in the first place (as you theorised upthread) will have moved the debate on and demanded a response.

It was a response to zerne's comment, which I think was in response to the current labour policy?

A novel variation, but still Brexit. At this stage, opposition to Brexit will be portrayed by their opponents a being a betrayal of their pledge and those elections results. It's not a good place for them and very unlikely to deliver them any sort of majority in GE.

That was the context.

ronmcd · **#8263** by **ronmcd** » Jun 21, 2019 10:44 pm

Beatsong wrote:
You seem to be assuming that the Labour policy going into a GE would be the same as it is now. And that despite the fact that the very conditions and events that have led to the GE occurring in the first place (as you theorised upthread) will have moved the debate on and demanded a response.

So what do you think the labour response is going to be?

I genuinely don't know. Can Labour pivot to an opposition to brexit?

Beatsong · **#8264** by **Beatsong** » Jun 21, 2019 11:50 pm

As I've said elsewhere, I think they can (and I hope they do) but only if it can be arrived at as a last ditch necessity to avoid economic disaster from the way the tories have fucked it up and failed to get a deal. Or they could pivot to a second referendum, if it's part of a cross-party attempt to break the deadlock.

What they probably can't do is to come out as the party of opposition to Brexit in principle, when a perfectly workable form of Brexit (in the eyes of the public) is in the process of taking place. They seem to figure that that would be electoral suicide, and I think they're probably right.

Beatsong · **#8265** by **Beatsong** » Jun 21, 2019 11:57 pm

ronmcd wrote:So what do you think the labour response is going to be?

If the scenario is as you described, with the tories under Boris campaigning on a platform of No Deal crashing out on Oct 31, then the Labour response would have to be some form of opposition to that. That wouldn't even require any "pivoting", since they've opposed No Deal Brexit all along.

What form that opposition would take, I don't know. I described some possibilities above. It would depend on what the EU say about how a new government might affect the deadline; what gets decided at conference etc.

zerne · **#8266** by **zerne** » Jun 22, 2019 12:51 am

Beatsong wrote:It's not irrelevant at all. The referendum result was Brexit, it wasn't No Deal Brexit. In actual fact everyone was discussing various kinds of deals that might take place at the time as it was largely assumed that one or other of them would be achieved. Labour pledged to respect that result, they never pledged to respect No Deal Brexit (since that wasn't the result) and have in fact consistently and unequivocally opposed it.

To repeat:

It is irrelevant which form a Brexit someone personally desired or voted for, they all got lumped altogether under one banner of Brexit in the referendum. Because of how it was structured. That in turn led to commitments to deliver Brexit from Conservatives and Labour with Labour even going so far as supporting the government to trigger Article 50. (some Labour MPs rebelled, Corbyn voted for it)

Sure, they oppose a Tory brexit, that's hardly news. What they propose instead is something even more delusional, a Labour Brexit.

But still Brexit. Where the end point is a UK outside the EU.

Beatsong wrote:You simply can't get from "a majority of the country voted for 'Brexit' in 2016", to "a majority of the country would support 'No Deal Brexit' in a GE in 2019" without making a whole lot of stuff up along the way.

It's fortunate then that i did not say or imply this.

All the Conservatives desire is enough support to gain a majority in the House of Commons and it is done. They can do that by co-opting the Brexit Party and inhabiting their ground in future elections.

Beatsong wrote:That's your assumption, but it doesn't make sense.

Not an assumption, it is what they are doing right now with all the talk of deadlines and leaving on the 31st. They are pandering specifically to that section of the electorate. They did the same thing when UKIP became a threat.

Beatsong wrote:The Brexit party have the same policy on this central issue as the Conservative party right: ie, Leave with No Deal. So the most the Conservatives are going to galvanise by doing this is "all the people in the country that support No Deal Brexit", regardless of whether they were Conservative voters, UKIP voters or Brexit party voters. We don't know what proportion of the electorate that is, but any appraisal of all the available data (as I went into above) tells us it's a minority.

Your claim about the Conservatives "co-opting" the Brexit party seems to be based on the idea that they will then combine the votes of their more centrist supporters, some of whom voted for "Brexit", with the votes of those Brexit party supporters who want "No Deal Brexit". But there is no evidence that that would work, and considerable reason why it wouldn't. Many voted for a managed Brexit under the illusion that it could be achieved in a way that would be beneficial or at least fairly neutral to the economy. There's no reason to assume that all or most of those people will be happy to vote for a self-interested upper class moron to deliver the country into what every knowledgable and respectable source agrees will be unmitigated economic disaster.

No evidence? Except, that it is exactly what happened when UKIP began siphoning off support from the Conservative Party in 2015, that's why they co-opted their policies along with a referendum on the EU.

UKIP policies delivered by Conservative government.

The Conservatives are threatened by Farage and whatever political vehicle he runs because they are explicitly right-wing which takes votes directly away from the Conservatives. That's why we were treated to such a display of Brexit commitment throughout the leadership election. Boris and Hunt are both vying for that support, it may not be significant to you but the house of Commons has regularly delivered majorities to ruling parties with a minority support countrywide. So it's significant enough to be worth pandering to.

They don't have to worry about disaffected Conservatives, they stay home or vote Lib Dem, they don't go to Labour.

Nothing i'm talking about is outlandish, out or the ordinary or unrealistic (except for Labour Brexit which is total fantasy)

Beatsong wrote:They could, but there are very few of those. If that were enough to solve their problem, they wouldn't need to hold a GE in the first place.

True, it is unlikely, but it is still possible. Labour has it's own splits over Europe and there is plenty of support amongst their MPs for Brexit. The trend for May's Withdrawal Agreement at each vote was to slowly gain support. I fully expect to see it come before parrliament agaain under the new leadership.

Beatsong wrote:Sure, but turnout in GEs is routinely twice that. All we know is that "an impressive number of people" voted to register a pro-Brexit protest. That number doesn't approach anything like the number required to achieve a majority in a GE. Once all is said and done, and all the other voters come out, it might result in a majority for Suicide Brexit. But we have no way of knowing, simply from the EU election data, whether it will or not.

Again true, but as it stands Labour have no chance of winning a GE, nor would they want to at this exact stage. They would inherit a mess with no way to deliver their own version of Brexit.

But Conservatives can and if they manage to successfully get Brexit Party support it seems likely that they can get this through.

Beatsong wrote:Yet according to your own quote they oppose Theresa May's Brexit. How would it then be in any way a betrayal to oppose a Brexit that is even more economically reckless and even worse for jobs and living standards? They could hardly do anything else.

But they do not oppose Brexit.

A shift to opposing Brexit will be portrayed as betrayal (doubly so since they voted for Article 50 - the idiots).

OlivierK · **#8267** by **OlivierK** » Jun 22, 2019 3:45 am

Beatsong wrote:
Spearthrower wrote:
Beatsong wrote:Why would there be a tory landslide based on a no deal brexit, when only a minority of the country want a no deal brexit and there is ample information now from such a wide variety of sources about what a disaster it would be?

Because by that point that'd be the only option regardless: the clock will have been run down; oh well, we tried, but in the end the horrible, totalitarian EU just wouldn't play ball.

Labour needs to step up and be the party backing a further referendum for the outcome to be any different.

There are a few things that could happen after ron's first three points, of which I think the chain of events he describes is one of the least likely. He doesn't seem to understand the difference between Labour "not knowing what to do" and Labour "not doing what I want them to do".

Ron can say what he like's about Labour's brexit position. Occasionally, just by law of averages, some of it might even be true. But one thing they have been implacable and utterly consistent about is opposition to a no deal brexit, and the fact that it would be a disaster. Even Corbyn, Ian Lavery, everyone. OK, except a few fringe nutters like Kate Hoey but they have no real influence.

It would be impossible, even if they wanted to, for Labour to then go into a GE campaign making out that no deal is a tolerable outcome. What would they propose as an alternative? I can see only three options:

1. If Corbyn can get accommodating noises from key EU negotiators, he could persist with the idea of Labour's version of Fantasy Brexit, to be negotiated after getting an extension to the Leave date. I suspect this would be extremely difficult - maybe impossible - for him to sell to the membership or even to enough of his leadership allies, simply due to "brexit fatigue" by that point and the widespread cynicism on the subject that would mean few voters believe him. It's also questionable whether he would get the agreement in principle from the EU to renegotiate. Possibly NOT getting it would be the thing that save's Labour's bacon, as they can still claim that they COULD have negotiated a "good" brexit, but now it's too late, the tories have fucked it up for good and we're forced to move on to options 2 and 3:

2. Labour could campaign on outright opposition and a policy of revoking article 51. While this might on the face of it seem hypocritical and a u-turn, they would have the excuse that the tories had manifestly failed, after three years, to get any kind of deal together that parliament will accept (and that is good for the country), so while the principle of activating the referendum result might be a sound one, it's simply impossible to realise at this point due to the tories' incompetence, and needs to be shelved to save the country from disaster.

3. Labour could campaign on a second referendum with a very simple choice between leaving on October 31st with No Deal or remaining and cancelling the whole thing. The problem I see with this is that they would have to allow for the option of leaving with no deal - which they've always said would be a disaster - under their own government should they get elected. But if they could find a way to make sense of that, and the country really has swung to majority-Remain (helped by the fact that Boris, according to ron's points 1,2,3, has effectively admitted that the tories have made a balls up of it and not found a way to do it properly) then they would surely get elected.

The point is that such a scenario would give Labour the one thing it needs - has always needed, and so far lacked - to back either a revocation or a second referendum: The fact that it's the only way out of the tories' cock up and failure to delivery brexit properly.

I broadly agree, with 2 caveats:

Firstly, Labour seem particularly wedded to Option 1, despite, as you say, being such a fucking stupid idea that their best bet if they went down that route would be to be blocked by the EU.

As for making sense of a No Deal / Remain referendum, the way to do so is both easy, and difficult. Easy, in that the strategy is to wholeheartedly campaign for Remain in such a referendum. Difficult, because Corbyn's heart clearly isn't in a Remain campaign. He didn't seem sincere last time, and he's got decades of form as a Eurosceptic. So that's a big issue for your options 2 and 3, and option 1 is as guaranteed to fail as the Tories' attempts at similar.

People get that Labour is wedged by Corbyn's Euroscepticism into being an ineffective opposition on the defining issue of the day. That's why their polling is shit, even at a time of maximal Tory fuckup.

ronmcd · **#8268** by **ronmcd** » Jun 22, 2019 9:03 am

OlivierK wrote:
People get that Labour is wedged by Corbyn's Euroscepticism into being an ineffective opposition on the defining issue of the day. That's why their polling is shit, even at a time of maximal Tory fuckup.

Cito di Pense · **#8269** by **Cito di Pense** » Jun 22, 2019 9:37 am

ronmcd wrote:
So what do you think the labour response is going to be?

Even better, what are the consequences of the consequences of labour's response going to be, given that the response is something you can already predict? The consequences are that labour's response is going to be the same the next time a response on this question is called for. That's why you need to wait a round or two before deciding you're still bored.

ronmcd · **#8270** by **ronmcd** » Jun 23, 2019 1:25 pm

How the @SundayTimesScot poll showing an #indyref2 majority for Yes under PM Johnson hasn’t come up on #Marr is outlandish to me

Liam Fox got asked about the Union, and a survey of Tory members, but a poll by a reputable polling company on the front of the Scottish edition of the Sunday Times did not come up. It’s just weird #Marr

https://twitter.com/thistlejohn/status/ ... 8389591041

ronmcd · **#8271** by **ronmcd** » Jun 23, 2019 2:22 pm

LOL. Jeremy will win Scotland back for Labour, they said ...

Some finding this from @SundayTimesScot / @Panelbase poll of 1,024 Scottish voters last week. Boris Johnson net popularity rating of -37. Jeremy Corbyn, -44

https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/ ... 0791778307

Matt_B · **#8272** by **Matt_B** » Jun 23, 2019 8:08 pm

Speaking of BoJo's popularity, after the domestic incident came to light he's now less popular with the general public than Jeremy Hunt.

https://metro.co.uk/2019/06/23/jeremy-h ... -10031360/

I'd suspect that there's still just enough ingrained misogyny among the party membership to still vote him into office unless further damaging revelations come to light. However, the idea that they could outflank Farage just by appointing him as leader and even win a general election on the back of that, is starting to look very shaky indeed.

OlivierK · **#8273** by **OlivierK** » Jun 24, 2019 1:16 am

ronmcd wrote:LOL. Jeremy will win Scotland back for Labour, they said ...

Some finding this from @SundayTimesScot / @Panelbase poll of 1,024 Scottish voters last week. Boris Johnson net popularity rating of -37. Jeremy Corbyn, -44

https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/ ... 0791778307

Somebody should ask Corbyn whether, if a general election was called, he'd offer confidence and supply to the LibDems, and support PM Swinson in cancelling Article 50.

Scot Dutchy · **#8274** by **Scot Dutchy** » Jun 24, 2019 6:55 am

Brexit viewed with incredulity overseas, says ambassador

[quote=]UK ambassador to South Korea says no serious decision-maker there thinks Brexit is a good idea

British ambassadors have been sending messages to the Foreign Office describing Brexit as a political shambles that is destroying the UK’s reputation, the serving UK ambassador to South Korea has said.

In the latest sign of Foreign Office dissent at the direction of British foreign policy, Simon Smith said no serious decision-maker or opinion-former in South Korea thinks the UK’s decision to leave the EU is a good idea, and that most South Koreans viewed Brexit with either bemusement or deep and serious incredulity.

The comments are likely to alarm ministers as they seek to persuade their European counterparts that the country is united behind the Conservative plan to take the country of out of the EU in October.[/quote]

United? The Brexiteers are even now still having wet dreams.

tuco · **#8275** by **tuco** » Jun 24, 2019 9:53 am

Well, the South Korean ambassador assumes that "decision maker" is necessarily rational, which as we know is not close to reality.

The UK is a gateway to the EU for many businesses from around the world for obvious reasons. I guess they will have to find another one.

OlivierK · **#8276** by **OlivierK** » Jun 24, 2019 10:37 am

Easily done. One of my ex-employers is shipping their London staff to Dublin as we speak.

Cito di Pense · **#8277** by **Cito di Pense** » Jun 24, 2019 11:40 am

OlivierK wrote:Easily done. One of my ex-employers is shipping their London staff to Dublin as we speak.

Would you say anyone is Dublin down on Brexit?

ronmcd · **#8278** by **ronmcd** » Jun 24, 2019 2:28 pm

Cito di Pense wrote:
OlivierK wrote:Easily done. One of my ex-employers is shipping their London staff to Dublin as we speak.

Would you say anyone is Dublin down on Brexit?

I'd *hope* nobody would ever say that.

Tracer Tong · **#8279** by **Tracer Tong** » Jun 24, 2019 3:44 pm

OlivierK wrote:
ronmcd wrote:LOL. Jeremy will win Scotland back for Labour, they said ...

Some finding this from @SundayTimesScot / @Panelbase poll of 1,024 Scottish voters last week. Boris Johnson net popularity rating of -37. Jeremy Corbyn, -44

https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/ ... 0791778307

Somebody should ask Corbyn whether, if a general election was called, he'd offer confidence and supply to the LibDems, and support PM Swinson in cancelling Article 50.

Labour won’t be going into any election promising to revoke article 50. They can’t win a majority without committing to some sort of departure as an absolute minimum.

Spearthrower · **#8280** by **Spearthrower** » Jun 24, 2019 4:02 pm

That's a pro-Brexit assertion.

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