Boyle wrote:Time to short them oil stocks!

I fully support your nefarious plan to win a bet by bankrupting Saudi Arabia.

I'm bookmarking this

Just remember that the lower go the equities, the larger the percentage of your account is represented by cash! Not largely in cash at this point? Bad timing!

Thommo wrote:
1) A 20% or greater fall in the share market (let's take the FTSE 100 as the market in question)
2) Oil prices slump to £11 a barrel or less

Are true on 1st Jan 2017 I'll say I'm wrong and give £10 to a charity of your choice.

If both are false, you'll say you're wrong and give £10 to a charity of my choice.

Ten pounds! It's this kind of reckless abandon that has gotten us in to this mess in the first place.

Briton wrote:

Thommo wrote:
1) A 20% or greater fall in the share market (let's take the FTSE 100 as the market in question)
2) Oil prices slump to £11 a barrel or less

Are true on 1st Jan 2017 I'll say I'm wrong and give £10 to a charity of your choice.

If both are false, you'll say you're wrong and give £10 to a charity of my choice.

Ten pounds! It's this kind of reckless abandon that has got us in to this mess in the first place.

The Guardian has this interesting piece with a wider range of views.

Briton wrote:

Thommo wrote:
1) A 20% or greater fall in the share market (let's take the FTSE 100 as the market in question)
2) Oil prices slump to £11 a barrel or less

Are true on 1st Jan 2017 I'll say I'm wrong and give £10 to a charity of your choice.

If both are false, you'll say you're wrong and give £10 to a charity of my choice.

Ten pounds! It's this kind of reckless abandon that has gotten us in to this mess in the first place.

Sorry. I guess it had to catch up with me sometime. It's me. I'm the one who crashed the global economy by means of offers for slightly frivolous donations to charitable causes.

Blip wrote:The Guardian has this interesting piece with a wider range of views.

Colour me shocked, the economists don't agree with one another!

Thommo wrote:

Blip wrote:The Guardian has this interesting piece with a wider range of views.

Colour me shocked, the economists don't agree with one another!

I'm thinking of joining in the bet on your side, Thommo

Blip wrote:

Thommo wrote:

Blip wrote:The Guardian has this interesting piece with a wider range of views.

Colour me shocked, the economists don't agree with one another!

I'm thinking of joining in the bet on your side, Thommo

Hey, I don't have a clue, I just enjoy distrusting economists, it's a guilt free pleasure. But it seems good, I mean, £10 to charity if you lose, it's hardly disaster!

Thommo wrote:

Blip wrote:

Thommo wrote:

Blip wrote:The Guardian has this interesting piece with a wider range of views.

Colour me shocked, the economists don't agree with one another!

I'm thinking of joining in the bet on your side, Thommo

Hey, I don't have a clue, I just enjoy distrusting economists, it's a guilt free pleasure. But it seems good, I mean, £10 to charity if you lose, it's hardly disaster!

I distrust economists, too. They've predicted 11 out of the last 6 recessions. However, you can't go wrong with "buy low, sell high". The trick is figuring out when you're looking at the bottom. I recommend the sniff test.

You know those Biblical prophecies about armageddeon/second coming happening only when you least expect it? If people are predicting gloomy days ahead, then the crash won't happen.

Cito di Pense wrote:

Thommo wrote:

Blip wrote:

Thommo wrote:

Colour me shocked, the economists don't agree with one another!

I'm thinking of joining in the bet on your side, Thommo

Hey, I don't have a clue, I just enjoy distrusting economists, it's a guilt free pleasure. But it seems good, I mean, £10 to charity if you lose, it's hardly disaster!

I distrust economists, too. They've predicted 11 out of the last 6 recessions. However, you can't go wrong with "buy low, sell high". The trick is figuring out when you're looking at the bottom. I recommend the sniff test.

I don't think it's enough to distrust them Cito. You have to do it recreationally. It's like sex, if you're not enjoying it, you're doing it wrong.

quas wrote:You know those Biblical prophecies about armageddeon/second coming happening only when you least expect it? If people are predicting gloomy days ahead, then the crash won't happen.

You know what superstition's about. Step on a crack, break your mother's back.

On the other hand, you could look at fundamentals, like the mess that China is in, the mess that Saudi and Iran are in, and the ways that the defaults on loans in the oil production sector could hurt the banking sector. You know what happens when the banking sector is hurting.

Thommo wrote:

Cito di Pense wrote:

Thommo wrote:

Blip wrote:

I'm thinking of joining in the bet on your side, Thommo

Hey, I don't have a clue, I just enjoy distrusting economists, it's a guilt free pleasure. But it seems good, I mean, £10 to charity if you lose, it's hardly disaster!

I distrust economists, too. They've predicted 11 out of the last 6 recessions. However, you can't go wrong with "buy low, sell high". The trick is figuring out when you're looking at the bottom. I recommend the sniff test.

I don't think it's enough to distrust them Cito. You have to do it recreationally. It's like sex, if you're not enjoying it, you're doing it wrong.

Economist porn. That's a new one for me.

Thommo wrote:

ronmcd wrote:

Scot Dutchy wrote:

Thommo wrote:
John Kenneth Galbraith

if they had real inside knowledge do you think they would be telling us?

I don't think it's inside knowledge to believe another crash is imminent. It's common knowledge.

edit - which doesnt mean it *will* happen, but it's expected by many

And expected not to happen by many others.

In many ways, a typical year.

True

It's also possible that this mouthpiece from RBS is trying to talk a bear market into existence to make a killing of his own.

This is one of the big problems with economics. Any pretence at it being a "scientific" discipline flies out of the window, when you realise that [1] you're dealing with phenomena that are subject to human whim and caprice, and [2] many of the practitioners of the discipline have large vested interests in swaying the outcome.

Calilasseia wrote:It's also possible that this mouthpiece from RBS is trying to talk a bear market into existence to make a killing of his own.

You know that's basically a conspiracy theory, right?

Briton wrote:

Ten pounds! It's this kind of reckless abandon that has gotten us in to this mess in the first place.

Thommo wrote:
Sorry. I guess it had to catch up with me sometime. It's me. I'm the one who crashed the global economy by means of offers for slightly frivolous donations to charitable causes.

Your posting ? Jeez.

You can't speculate about a bank, its against laws but from time to time some economists and money geniuses appear and say "get ready for a knockout" fine but how can you be prepared for a such a blow ?

These terrorists of economy in my opinion.