Sell everything ahead of stock market crash, say RBS economi

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Re: Sell everything ahead of stock market crash, say RBS economi

#41  Postby Thommo » Jan 14, 2016 11:25 am

aliihsanasl wrote:You can't speculate about a bank, its against laws but from time to time some economists and money geniuses appear and say "get ready for a knockout" fine but how can you be prepared for a such a blow ?

These terrorists of economy in my opinion.


Their advice is to sell stocks because they think the price will fall (same goes for oil). Hold cash, bonds or other investment vehicles that offer a better rate of return until the market bottoms out, then buy.

Whether they are right is another matter.
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Re: Sell everything ahead of stock market crash, say RBS economi

#42  Postby aliihsanasl » Jan 14, 2016 11:38 am

Thommo wrote:
aliihsanasl wrote:You can't speculate about a bank, its against laws but from time to time some economists and money geniuses appear and say "get ready for a knockout" fine but how can you be prepared for a such a blow ?

These terrorists of economy in my opinion.


Their advice is to sell stocks because they think the price will fall (same goes for oil). Hold cash, bonds or other investment vehicles that offer a better rate of return until the market bottoms out, then buy.

Whether they are right is another matter.


Yes that's just an advice but what they're mentioning is a chaotic period as in the great depression, stock owners can believe and sell or don't believe and keep going. Whole thing remind me the religious nuts who yell "dooms day is near, get ready for it" or a better example is the flu pandemic in 2009 which raised the profits of drug companies billion dollars.
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Re: Sell everything ahead of stock market crash, say RBS economi

#43  Postby Thommo » Jan 14, 2016 11:53 am

aliihsanasl wrote:Yes that's just an advice but what they're mentioning is a chaotic period as in the great depression, stock owners can believe and sell or don't believe and keep going. Whole thing remind me the religious nuts who yell "dooms day is near, get ready for it" or a better example is the flu pandemic in 2009 which raised the profits of drug companies billion dollars.


The great depression was a long term period of recession, stagnation and unemployment. This forecast doesn't claim any of those (although it's related to "stagnation" in China - or more accurately forecast growth much lower than they planned for).

The 2009 flu pandemic killed tens or hundreds of thousands of people, not quite sure what that has to do with anything.
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Re: Sell everything ahead of stock market crash, say RBS economi

#44  Postby aliihsanasl » Jan 14, 2016 1:34 pm

I wrote a longer one but browser shut down and lost it :( I wish we had auto save system.

In short why would anyone trust to another on a stock market/economic system mostly based on deception when a non profit health organization's statements are questioned ? Even in your article its mentioned.

Critics claimed the WHO had exaggerated the danger, spreading "fear and confusion" rather than "immediate information".[25] The WHO began an investigation to determine[26] whether it had "frightened people unnecessarily".[27] A flu follow-up study done in September 2010, found that "the risk of most serious complications was not elevated in adults or children."[28] In an 5 August 2011 PLoS ONE article, researchers estimated that the 2009 H1N1 global infection rate was 11% to 21%, lower than what was previously expected.[29] However, by 2012, research showed that as many as 579,000 people could have been killed by the disease, as only those fatalities confirmed by laboratory testing were included in the original number, and meant that many of those without access to health facilities went uncounted. The majority of these deaths occurred in Africa and Southeast Asia. Experts, including the WHO, have agreed that an estimated 284,500 people were killed by the disease, much higher than the initial death toll.[30][31][32]
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Re: Sell everything ahead of stock market crash, say RBS economi

#45  Postby Thommo » Jan 14, 2016 1:38 pm

I suspect because the system isn't mostly based on deception.

As you say, it's mentioned and then pointed out that a lot of people died as estimates were later revised. Does anything show that the system is flawed, or that corruption was involved? Not that I can see. Forecasting is inherently unreliable, it makes sense that the WHO errs on the side of saving lives.

I still don't really see what this has to do with the topic though, sorry.
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Re: Sell everything ahead of stock market crash, say RBS economi

#46  Postby ScholasticSpastic » Jan 14, 2016 1:46 pm

Thommo wrote:
Calilasseia wrote:It's also possible that this mouthpiece from RBS is trying to talk a bear market into existence to make a killing of his own.


You know that's basically a conspiracy theory, right?

A conspiracy requires multiple conspirators. Cali's hypothesis only requires one person being an asshole. A single asshole cannot a conspiracy make.
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Re: Sell everything ahead of stock market crash, say RBS economi

#47  Postby Thommo » Jan 14, 2016 1:51 pm

ScholasticSpastic wrote:
Thommo wrote:
Calilasseia wrote:It's also possible that this mouthpiece from RBS is trying to talk a bear market into existence to make a killing of his own.


You know that's basically a conspiracy theory, right?

A conspiracy requires multiple conspirators. Cali's hypothesis only requires one person being an asshole. A single asshole cannot a conspiracy make.


Well, if he's really suggesting that one person stands to affect the global markets in such a huge way independently of other people predicting the same thing, or indeed the organisation he works for then yes, on a technicality it differs from being a conspiracy theory (although not if he's working in concert with RBS as a whole). But that's why I added the qualifier "basically".

I'm reasonably confident I've seen Cali question suggestions and hypotheses before now for lack of evidence. This certainly falls under that category. Do we have evidence this person stands to personally profit? Do we have evidence he thinks he can influence the markets to such a huge extent?
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Re: Sell everything ahead of stock market crash, say RBS economi

#48  Postby aliihsanasl » Jan 14, 2016 2:11 pm

I don't even remember when I started it but I'm sure it was before age 20 I began trading gold, initial money came when my father sold the car and gave a part of it to me. Since then I follow gold prices from TV and according to my experience most of the time opposite of whatever they say is happening for the prices.

Then how they can continue to be commentator for economy programs ? Well most of the people know it and do the opposite. Even once I heard one of them saying "well you know the trick, just the opposite of what economists say" :lol:
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Re: Sell everything ahead of stock market crash, say RBS economi

#49  Postby crank » Jan 14, 2016 3:20 pm

aliihsanasl wrote:I wrote a longer one but browser shut down and lost it :( I wish we had auto save system.

You need to get the Lazarus plugin, it's saved many many many times.
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Re: Sell everything ahead of stock market crash, say RBS economi

#50  Postby ScholasticSpastic » Jan 14, 2016 3:20 pm

Thommo wrote:
I'm reasonably confident I've seen Cali question suggestions and hypotheses before now for lack of evidence. This certainly falls under that category. Do we have evidence this person stands to personally profit? Do we have evidence he thinks he can influence the markets to such a huge extent?

I'm not picking sides. I'm picking nits. ;)
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Re: Sell everything ahead of stock market crash, say RBS economi

#51  Postby quas » Jan 14, 2016 3:26 pm

Cito di Pense wrote:
quas wrote:You know those Biblical prophecies about armageddeon/second coming happening only when you least expect it? If people are predicting gloomy days ahead, then the crash won't happen.


You know what superstition's about. Step on a crack, break your mother's back.

On the other hand, you could look at fundamentals, like the mess that China is in, the mess that Saudi and Iran are in, and the ways that the defaults on loans in the oil production sector could hurt the banking sector. You know what happens when the banking sector is hurting.


The mess that China is in doesn't happen overnight. That's a decade or two in the making, at least. People have been predicting China's crash since a long ass time. Same thing with Saudi and Iran.
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Re: Sell everything ahead of stock market crash, say RBS economi

#52  Postby crank » Jan 14, 2016 3:30 pm

Thommo wrote:
Calilasseia wrote:It's also possible that this mouthpiece from RBS is trying to talk a bear market into existence to make a killing of his own.


You know that's basically a conspiracy theory, right?

It's not a conspiracy just because a lot of people are acting similarly, as if in concert, because there's a shitload of people with similar motivations, working in the same system, getting the same signals, etc.

The possibly biggest reason to worry about the next crisis, whether this year or next or ..., is how aggressively the feds have gone out of their way to not prosecute anyone, no matter the egregiousness of their behavior. This on top of the gutting of most of the financial reforms to come out of 2008. The concentration in the financials is significantly worse--they're even too bigger to fail. There's simply little reason for the banksters to feel much constrained by the law and banking regulations, if the legal costs of avoiding the law is 10% of the profits you make doing so, and there's no chance of criminal consequences, why follow the law?
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Re: Sell everything ahead of stock market crash, say RBS economi

#53  Postby Thommo » Jan 14, 2016 8:56 pm

ScholasticSpastic wrote:
Thommo wrote:
I'm reasonably confident I've seen Cali question suggestions and hypotheses before now for lack of evidence. This certainly falls under that category. Do we have evidence this person stands to personally profit? Do we have evidence he thinks he can influence the markets to such a huge extent?

I'm not picking sides. I'm picking nits. ;)


Well, it's a good enough hobby, been known to pick a few myself. ;)
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Re: Sell everything ahead of stock market crash, say RBS economi

#54  Postby Thommo » Jan 14, 2016 8:59 pm

crank wrote:
Thommo wrote:
Calilasseia wrote:It's also possible that this mouthpiece from RBS is trying to talk a bear market into existence to make a killing of his own.


You know that's basically a conspiracy theory, right?

It's not a conspiracy just because a lot of people are acting similarly, as if in concert, because there's a shitload of people with similar motivations, working in the same system, getting the same signals, etc.


Did I not already directly explain that comment?

Just in case it wasn't clear. Emphasis on "conspiracy theory", not "conspiracy". I'm assuming everyone is familiar with both terms. Qualifier "basically" indicates that it has the important features of "conspiracy theory" (lack of evidence, based on superficial rejection of the standard reasoning etc.).
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Re: Sell everything ahead of stock market crash, say RBS economi

#55  Postby Exstinctum » Jan 16, 2016 11:46 am

While not very well-versed on this particular topic, my understanding is that a major element in any crash, whether it's the stock market or banks, often is the panic that gets caused when markets or the economy start to tumble. If most people just started to liquidate most of their assets simultaneously, that very well might start a crisis on its own. There's a reason why in some countries it's against the law to spread rumours about a bank going under for this very reason. If people start to panic and everyone starts withdraw all the money they can, the bank will go bankrupt.
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Re: Sell everything ahead of stock market crash, say RBS economi

#56  Postby Macdoc » Jan 16, 2016 1:14 pm

If people start to panic and everyone starts withdraw all the money they can, the bank will go bankrupt.


ever stopped and thought why that should even be possible ?

What are the most compelling arguments against fractional reserve banking?
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James Kielkopf
James Kielkopf, Economist, former bank chief economist
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The most compelling -- and I think only -- argument I can think of against the lending practice of fractional reserve banking, where a lender or a lending system can effectively provide more loans -- create real, income producing assets on their books than they have in reserves of offsetting liquid assets -- is that it provides too much power in a society to bankers in private-sector financial firms relative to everyone else. This power, which can be observed in the ridiculously high compensation for banking executives relative to the actual work they do (i.e., not more than any other senior bureaucrat whose general work involves organizing relationships for people instead of actually creating or making real things or ideas for people).

A large part of this power can conceivably be attributed primarily to the privileged position such individuals have as executives in organizations that have been entrusted in our society to implement the otherwise mundane task of creating and destroying money, an enormously useful social contrivance to facility the efficient functioning of an exchange-based economy -- through a process of making loans and collecting payments from them. The fact of the recent financial crisis of 2007-2009 and resulting depression of economic activity in much of the industrialized world since then seems like a pretty good argument that such a privilege for bankers is not warranted and that it may even be counter-productive to the efficiency purposes of money in our economy in the first place.


https://www.quora.com/What-are-the-most ... ve-banking
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Re: Sell everything ahead of stock market crash, say RBS economi

#57  Postby Exstinctum » Jan 16, 2016 2:32 pm

Macdoc wrote:
If people start to panic and everyone starts withdraw all the money they can, the bank will go bankrupt.


ever stopped and thought why that should even be possible ?

I have. That's because banks don't hold all the deposited money in a vault. If I remember correctly, the universal standard of mandated reserves that have to be accessible by clients at any given time is 10% of the total deposits made, but this may vary from country to country.
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Re: Sell everything ahead of stock market crash, say RBS economi

#58  Postby dochmbi » Jan 16, 2016 5:09 pm

Should I be worried that the value of the euro will go down severely? I have some money on my account and am wondering if I should maybe buy some valuable metals with it or?
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Re: Sell everything ahead of stock market crash, say RBS economi

#59  Postby Macdoc » Jan 16, 2016 5:17 pm

Exs,

Reserves are only a small part of the picture - fractional lending is the means by which the money supply can controlled to match it with growth...in theory it works well.

In reality - a bank can lend out up to 30 times for each million dollars in capital. With a major melt down - that creates effectively a margin call on the banks....if one million dollar loan defaults ....then the bank has to call in the other 29 as it no longer has the reserves to support those loans.
If you couple that with unsupportable evaluations ( what happened in 2008 and certainly is in play in many real estate and stock markets around the world ) ...then like a margin call...it all unwinds very rapidly ...that's why the central banks have been pumping 100's of millions to prop up banks and are still doing so.

Try this to see the larger view and how wrong it can go when assets are overvalued

http://www.learningmarkets.com/understa ... ng-system/
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Re: Sell everything ahead of stock market crash, say RBS economi

#60  Postby crank » Jan 17, 2016 1:07 am

dochmbi wrote:Should I be worried that the value of the euro will go down severely? I have some money on my account and am wondering if I should maybe buy some valuable metals with it or?

Yep, there is definitely risk in holding cash. You no doubt heard stories about economies in runaway inflation where everyone tries to get rid of cash as soon as they acquire any, running around with the proverbial wheelbarrows full of cash, enough to buy some paltry thing. I went to Peru many years ago, when I got their, their currency was called the 'inte' and was about 21 to the dollar. When I left there about 3 weeks later, it was 23-24. There were two types of currency floating around, the new intes and the older solis, a thousand solis was one inte. I had 100,000 soli bills, worth less than a nickel then. They are back on solis now, sometime back they went with new solis, a thousand intes bought you one new soli, so the new soli is worth a million of the old. And that is just bad inflation, not 'runaway' inflation.
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