by zoon wrote:Yes, it may not happen, but I don't think Remain needs to lie down yet, any more than the SNP or UKIP regarded referendum results as final. Anatole Kaletsky is a respected commentator making the case 3 days ago here (my addition in double brackets):Anatole Kaletsky wrote:Brexit has turned “Leave” (whether the EU or the euro) into a realistic option in every European country. Once Britain gives the Union formal notice (by invoking Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon), that option will enter the mainstream of political debate everywhere. Research by the European Council on Foreign Relations has found 34 anti-EU referendum demands in 18 other countries. Even if each of these challenges has only a 5% chance of success, the probability of at least one succeeding is 83%.
Can the genie of disintegration be put back in its bottle? The EU’s breakup may well prove unstoppable once Britain leaves; but Britain has not yet invoked Article 50. The bottle could still be sealed before the genie escapes.
Unfortunately, Europe is using the wrong threats and incentives to achieve this. France is demanding that Britain accelerate its exit. Germany is playing the “good cop” by offering access to the single market, but only in exchange for immigration rules that Britain will not accept. These are exactly the wrong sticks and carrots.
Instead of rushing Brexit, Europe’s leaders should be trying to avert it, by persuading British voters to change their minds. The aim should not be to negotiate the terms of departure, but to negotiate the terms on which most British voters would want to remain.
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((Kaletsky suggests that the EU could persuade Britain to remain by allowing more border controls across the EU. Since this is the issue behind many of the other breakaway movements, such a move would also strengthen the EU as a whole, in Kaletsky's view.))
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The real obstacle to a strategy of persuading Britain to remain in the EU is the EU bureaucracy. The European Commission, once the EU’s source of visionary creativity, has become a fanatical defender of existing rules and regulations, however irrational and destructive, on the grounds that any concessions will beget more demands. Concessions to British voters on immigration would inspire the southern countries to demand fiscal and banking reforms, eastern countries would seek budget changes, and non-euro countries would demand an end to their second-class status.
The Commission is right to believe that demands for EU reform would extend well beyond Britain. But is this a reason to resist all change? That type of rigidity broke up the Soviet Union and nearly destroyed the Catholic Church. It will destroy the EU if the bureaucracy remains incapable of reform.
It is time for Europe’s politicians to overrule the bureaucrats and re-create a flexible, democratic EU capable of responding to its citizens and adapting to a changing world. Most British voters would be happy to remain in that kind of Europe.
There was plenty scope to push for EU-wide reform, but only with allies.
Westminster's in this mess 'cause it went it alone, expecting far-reaching reform to be rushed through in weeks, at Britain's say-so. If, say, GB had joined with the Nordic countries, Greece, some in the A10, and perhaps the Netherlands, it may've worked towards a two-track Europe, with tighter integration for the Germany-France core, and a looser arrangement for others.
Instead, in a foretaste of his referendum decision, to win over Eurosceptic Tories in his leadership fight against David Davis, Cameron withdrew from the mainstream center-right bloc in the European Parliament, and marginalized Britain's party of government in a hard-right rump.
Played right, there could've been a referendum on the new deal for Europe. It would've closed the democratic deficit, while giving the government something positive to campaign for, a criticism that Salmond and Sturgeon have made repeatedly, and one that hits home. Launching a referendum to maintain the status quo, instead of to enact change, is an uphill struggle.
