UK EU Referendum

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Re: UK EU Referendum

#7181  Postby Byron » May 02, 2017 8:17 pm

Thommo wrote:The only relevant sentence in that quote is not actually in the quote, it's the bit you inserted.

The article makes no mention of the passports at all.

No, it doesn't, because (apparently) unlike yourself or the person who mistakenly liked your post, its authors are well aware that it's a function of the EEA. I'm not sure how you're unaware of this, seeing as I posted a link to, and quoted from, the Bank of England. I'll be kind and rewind: here it is again:-
Passporting rights only apply within the EEA. So, for example, they do not apply in the Channel Islands or the Isle of Man, as these are not EEA states. Although Switzerland is not an EEA state, Swiss general insurers have the right to set up an establishment in the EEA under the provisions of special bilateral treaties between the European Union and Switzerland. EEA general insurers also have equivalent rights in respect of Switzerland under these treaties. Special arrangements also apply in relation to Gibraltar.

The EU could, as I expect you're about to argue, horse trade, change the rules and extend sectors of the EEA to the UK. To do that, it'd have to issue new negotiating guidelines, and fundamentally rewrite the nature of the single market. It'd not just be a stunning concession to the UK, the precedent it'd set for third countries would end the EEA as we know it. If the UK can buy into sectors of the single market, why not New York, Tokyo or Singapore?

This is possible. I continue to await a shred of evidence that it's likely. If you're unable to provide it, I look in hope to your uptick, though I fear it'll be forlorn.
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Re: UK EU Referendum

#7182  Postby zerne » May 02, 2017 8:21 pm

Thommo wrote:It's an omission in the sense that I said the prime minister refused to have a second Scotland referendum before Brexit, and you asked me why I said she'd refused a second referendum (full stop), which means something else by virtue of not containing part of the sentence. If the distinction is unimportant to you, that's fine, let's move on.


There was no omission and since you can clearly read what i wrote above, this is either blatant misrepresentation or outright lying. At no point have i asked why May would refuse such a request because i already know the answer to that. What i asked, and ask again, is where your idea of the UK Government refusing the Scottish Government's request comes from because it's something you've repeated several times now without anything approaching evidence.

Thommo wrote:Either way, the request has been refused,...


Factcheck; there has been no response from Westminster to Holyrood's request.

Thommo wrote: Sturgeon knew this and sent the letter anyway. It doesn't change anything, the government's position is quite clear regarding a referendum before Brexit. David Mundell repeated the government's position in the house on the day the vote passed in Holyrood AFAIR.


Factcheck; Mundell did no such thing.
(he did twitter a response repeating the line that there will be no negotiation)

Thommo wrote: It may perhaps be worth mentioning that section 30 of the Scotland act makes no mention of formal processes or requiring letters, or indeed any constraints on medium of communication at all.


Why would section 30 of the Scotland Act, which delineates which powers are reserved to Westminster, have any mention of communications between the two parliaments?

It may be worth mentioning that Article 50 doesn't mention anything about letters either, what it says is that the member country must notify the EU of its intention.

So if what you say is true, any number of tweets, soundbites and press releases should have triggered it. But in reality it was only triggered once the UK Government drafted a letter requesting the triggering of article 50 to the EU Council's President. The EU responded formally, because that's how these things actually work.

Thommo wrote:Whether it's the correct thing to do or the wrong thing to do, unless something changes in the general election, the current government's position is that there won't be a second Scottish independence referendum before Brexit.


They still have not responded to Holyrood's request. It's something that awaits the new administration.
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Re: UK EU Referendum

#7183  Postby Thommo » May 02, 2017 8:28 pm

Byron wrote:
Thommo wrote:The only relevant sentence in that quote is not actually in the quote, it's the bit you inserted.

The article makes no mention of the passports at all.

No, it doesn't, because (apparently) unlike yourself or the person who mistakenly liked your post, its authors are well aware that it's a function of the EEA. I'm not sure how you're unaware of this, seeing as I posted a link to, and quoted from, the Bank of England. I'll be kind and rewind: here it is again:-
Passporting rights only apply within the EEA. So, for example, they do not apply in the Channel Islands or the Isle of Man, as these are not EEA states. Although Switzerland is not an EEA state, Swiss general insurers have the right to set up an establishment in the EEA under the provisions of special bilateral treaties between the European Union and Switzerland. EEA general insurers also have equivalent rights in respect of Switzerland under these treaties. Special arrangements also apply in relation to Gibraltar.


That's not kindness it's condescension. And of course it's wildly off base.

The point was that (a) negotiating guidelines do not categorically settle final positions and (b) Not negotiating on a sector by sector basis does not mean that there can be no parts of a deal that get more scrutiny. It states what the general procedure will be, it does not state that there cannot be under any circumstances any exception of any form.

If the EU deems it necessary to make special provision in the form of a transitional period (or any other arrangement) to ensure its own institutions can function on a daily basis then they won't be bound by your misinterpretation of that paragraph, I assure you. After all, that's not what the word "guidelines" means as I'm sure we're all well aware.

Byron wrote:This is possible. I continue to await a shred of evidence that it's likely. If you're unable to provide it, I look in hope to your uptick, though I fear it'll be forlorn.


Because of course, I said it was likely, did I?

I'll respond with evidence for this claim when you show me evidence of where I made it.
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Re: UK EU Referendum

#7184  Postby Byron » May 02, 2017 8:29 pm

And ultimately, if Whitehall digs in and attempts to block any referendum, Scotland, having sovereign rights, can simply pursue independence by other means, whether via a consultative plebiscite, a vote by a majority of Scottish MPs, or a constitutional convention like the one that asserted the sovereignty of the Scottish people and paved the way for Holyrood.

It May thinks that Scotland can be defeated by soundbites, she's even more deluded than her dinner party from hell would indicate.
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Re: UK EU Referendum

#7185  Postby zerne » May 02, 2017 8:46 pm

Warren Dew wrote:
Indeed. Even Merkel will not survive the depression Germany will face when Britain puts up trade barriers and starts buying Vauxhalls and Jaguars instead of VWs and BMWs again.


lol

Vauxhall is owned by OPEL (German) and both are subsidiaries of GM. Jaguar is owned by TATA (Indian).

If you're looking for a British car manufacturer that remains UK based and owned there is only one left; TVR.

If they impose trade barriers, they will be forced to place them on every other country because that's how the MFN (Most Favoured Nation) criteria operates under WTO rules.

As for a German depression? Dream on.
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Re: UK EU Referendum

#7186  Postby Byron » May 02, 2017 8:46 pm

Thommo wrote:That's not kindness it's condescension. And of course it's wildly off base.

The point was that (a) negotiating guidelines do not categorically settle final positions and (b) Not negotiating on a sector by sector basis does not mean that there can be no parts of a deal that get more scrutiny. It states what the general procedure will be, it does not state that there cannot be under any circumstances any exception of any form.

If the EU deems it necessary to make special provision in the form of a transitional period (or any other arrangement) to ensure its own institutions can function on a daily basis then they won't be bound by your misinterpretation of that paragraph, I assure you. After all, that's not what the word "guidelines" means as I'm sure we're all well aware.

The transitional period could include the financial passport. As Brussels has been clear that it'll be strictly time-limited, it's of little relevance to the final Brexit deal.

The relevant guideline looks clear and unambiguous -- "Preserving the integrity of the Single Market excludes participation based on a sector-by-sector approach" -- although since it can be strapped to a chair and parsed into submission, I'll not argue the point.

Yes, the EU negotiators could interpret it as they please, and make some offer on financial services. Since any deal would then have to be signed-off by Brussels, this isn't likely to happen, is it?
Byron wrote:This is possible. I continue to await a shred of evidence that it's likely. If you're unable to provide it, I look in hope to your uptick, though I fear it'll be forlorn.

Because of course, I said it was likely, did I?

I'll respond with evidence for this claim when you show me evidence of where I made it.

You've rejected the term Fantasy Brexit, and appear to've argued that "horse trading" means we can't know what will happen. That appears to take a position on likelihood, but I'm happy for you to clarify and go with it. How likely do you believe May is to succeed? Likely, unlikely, 50-50?
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Re: UK EU Referendum

#7187  Postby Thommo » May 02, 2017 9:07 pm

zerne wrote:
Thommo wrote:It's an omission in the sense that I said the prime minister refused to have a second Scotland referendum before Brexit, and you asked me why I said she'd refused a second referendum (full stop), which means something else by virtue of not containing part of the sentence. If the distinction is unimportant to you, that's fine, let's move on.


There was no omission and since you can clearly read what i wrote above, this is either blatant misrepresentation or outright lying.


It's neither, something that was present was left out. That's all the word means.

I don't know why you're overreacting so, but since you don't seem to be enjoying the conversation, I think we should drop it.

zerne wrote:Factcheck; there has been no response from Westminster to Holyrood's request.


If your point was to suggest that the "official email" didn't get a reply, yes that is correct. This is not what I was referring to in the quote of mine you objected to though.

Point clarified. No problems.

zerne wrote:Factcheck; Mundell did no such thing.


He gave a perfectly plain statement to the BBC on that date:-
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-39422747

I may have been incorrect about the date of a statement in the house, but it hardly matters. That was a passing comment, and Holyrood isn't full of idiots, they know exactly what the government's position is whether or not the "official" email got an answer or not.

Unlike the article 50 notification you compare to the email has no "official" or statutory role.

zerne wrote:Why would section 30 of the Scotland Act, which delineates which powers are reserved to Westminster, have any mention of communications between the two parliaments?


This question seems to be a bit of a non sequitur. The point is that if official notification or communication was required under the clause they wanted to negotiate, that clause would mention it.

zerne wrote:It may be worth mentioning that Article 50 doesn't mention anything about letters either, what it says is that the member country must notify the EU of its intention.


Right, and in that respect of being unilateral and requiring an official notification the two are completely different.

zerne wrote:So if what you say is true, any number of tweets, soundbites and press releases should have triggered it. But in reality it was only triggered once the UK Government drafted a letter requesting the triggering of article 50 to the EU Council's President. The EU responded formally, because that's how these things actually work.


No, that doesn't follow at all. :scratch:

The EU's formal response though, was not required. And as you point out section 30 and article 50 don't work the same either.

Holyrood wasn't notifying Westminster of a referendum (they can't), they were asking for the other half of the permission required (the first half being their own) to grant them the competence to hold one.

zerne wrote:They still have not responded to Holyrood's request. It's something that awaits the new administration.


I'm assuming by this that you're trying to make the technical point that the "official" email hasn't had an "official" response yet. This is correct, but has nothing to do with the point I was making prior to your interjection.

If I'd wanted to argue about the technicality I'd have said to Byron that his plain language summary of the Scottish government's current position was not correct because it's beyond the legislative competence of Holyrood to authorise a referendum. But I don't really want to get into the technicalities of it, which is why I just answered his plain language about the point with equally plain language.

Holyrood will have to formulate a new position to accommodate the reality that the UK government has refused to have a referendum prior to Brexit. This is exactly what Nicola Sturgeon herself had said when she talked about the three week deadline for the non response.
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Re: UK EU Referendum

#7188  Postby Thommo » May 02, 2017 9:15 pm

Byron wrote:Yes, the EU negotiators could interpret it as they please, and make some offer on financial services. Since any deal would then have to be signed-off by Brussels, this isn't likely to happen, is it?


I don't really know, I'd say probably? If they come to the conclusion that's the best deal for the EU it seems likely that the EU would sign off on it.

It'll be a hell of a mess if they take on their own negotiators, but of course, that's just a gut feeling. My point was that it wasn't known, not that I know.

Byron wrote:
Byron wrote:This is possible. I continue to await a shred of evidence that it's likely. If you're unable to provide it, I look in hope to your uptick, though I fear it'll be forlorn.

Because of course, I said it was likely, did I?

I'll respond with evidence for this claim when you show me evidence of where I made it.

You've rejected the term Fantasy Brexit, and appear to've argued that "horse trading" means we can't know what will happen.


On an unrelated basis yes. The inconsistent use of the one term has little to do with the other point. I'm certainly not suggesting that the meaning of the term "horse trading" itself is that we don't know what will happen. What I am saying is that we don't know, and that further we cannot infer from vague statements that aren't even final a definitive and final conclusion.

Byron wrote:That appears to take a position on likelihood, but I'm happy for you to clarify and go with it. How likely do you believe May is to succeed? Likely, unlikely, 50-50?


To succeed at what? I can't even tell you how big of a priority passporting will be in the negotiation, for either side, since neither has said.

If you now agree with me that the EU haven't in fact said there can't be some kind of deal on passporting then there's nothing left at debate here.
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Re: UK EU Referendum

#7189  Postby Byron » May 02, 2017 9:19 pm

Thommo wrote:[...] If I'd wanted to argue about the technicality I'd have said to Byron that his plain language summary of the Scottish government's current position was not correct because it's beyond the legislative competence of Holyrood to authorise a referendum. But I don't really want to get into the technicalities of it, which is why I just answered his plain language about the point with equally plain language.

Holyrood will have to formulate a new position to accommodate the reality that the UK government has refused to have a referendum prior to Brexit. This is exactly what Nicola Sturgeon herself had said when she talked about the three week deadline for the non response.

Yes, as a reserved matter, the British constitution is outwith Holyrood's powers. I've previously noted this over on the iScotland thread.

It doesn't matter. Sovereignty supersedes ordinary legislation, and Scotland has the right to end the union any time she pleases, a right acknowledged by successive prime ministers, including Thatcher.

A Holyrood vote and section 30 order are simply the most convenient way to recognize the sovereign will of the Scottish people, which is why Cameron accepted the SNP's 2011 Holyrood victory as a mandate to hold a referendum. He had the political sense to realize that this was a situation he had to negotiate. If May doesn't fast develop it, alternative peaceful and democratic means of dissolution will be found and executed.
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Re: UK EU Referendum

#7190  Postby Byron » May 02, 2017 9:24 pm

Thommo wrote:[...] If you now agree with me that the EU haven't in fact said there can't be some kind of deal on passporting then there's nothing left at debate here.

As written, the guidelines rule out passporting as currently exists, along with every other perk of the single market.

If May persists with a hard Brexit, the EU may agree to some kind of equivalency deal on financial services, but the only way it could be passporting as currently exists would be if the EU tore up the existing guidelines, and extended current passporting rights to all third countries. I don't consider this remotely likely. Do you?
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Re: UK EU Referendum

#7191  Postby Thommo » May 02, 2017 9:25 pm

Byron wrote:It doesn't matter. Sovereignty supersedes ordinary legislation, and Scotland has the right to end the union any time she pleases, a right acknowledged by successive prime ministers, including Thatcher.


Absolutely, a sovereignty reserved for its sovereign parliament (under the banner of its sovereign). A parliament that merged with Westminster hundreds of years ago and a sovereign that is the same individual as the Queen of England.

If Scotland gets a vote through in Westminster, where the merged parliament sits this right can certainly be enforced without any extreme action, whether or not such action would meet with popularity in Scotland.
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Re: UK EU Referendum

#7192  Postby Thommo » May 02, 2017 9:26 pm

Byron wrote:
Thommo wrote:[...] If you now agree with me that the EU haven't in fact said there can't be some kind of deal on passporting then there's nothing left at debate here.

As written, the guidelines rule out passporting as currently exists, along with every other perk of the single market.


No, they don't.
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Re: UK EU Referendum

#7193  Postby Byron » May 02, 2017 9:33 pm

Thommo wrote:Absolutely, a sovereignty reserved for its sovereign parliament (under the banner of its sovereign). A parliament that merged with Westminster hundreds of years ago and a sovereign that is the same individual as the Queen of England.

If Scotland gets a vote through in Westminster, where the merged parliament sits this right can certainly be enforced without any extreme action, whether or not such action would meet with popularity in Scotland.

Diceyan parliamentary sovereignty doesn't exist in Scots law, and never has, so appealing to it's a category error. As asserted by 1989's Claim of Right, Scots have a "sovereign right ... to determine the form of Government best suited to their needs."

Scotland's joined to England by international treaty, a treaty than can be dissolved regardless of Westminster's consent. UDI shouldn't be resorted to except as a last resort, but that resort's there, and should help concentrate even a mind as pig-headed as May's.
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Re: UK EU Referendum

#7194  Postby Byron » May 02, 2017 9:34 pm

Thommo wrote:
Byron wrote:As written, the guidelines rule out passporting as currently exists, along with every other perk of the single market.

No, they don't.

What, not even a rubber hosing? :grin:
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Re: UK EU Referendum

#7195  Postby Thommo » May 02, 2017 9:42 pm

Byron wrote:
Thommo wrote:Absolutely, a sovereignty reserved for its sovereign parliament (under the banner of its sovereign). A parliament that merged with Westminster hundreds of years ago and a sovereign that is the same individual as the Queen of England.

If Scotland gets a vote through in Westminster, where the merged parliament sits this right can certainly be enforced without any extreme action, whether or not such action would meet with popularity in Scotland.

Diceyan parliamentary sovereignty doesn't exist in Scots law, and never has, so appealing to it's a category error. As asserted by 1989's Claim of Right, Scots have a "sovereign right ... to determine the form of Government best suited to their needs."

Scotland's joined to England by international treaty, a treaty than can be dissolved regardless of Westminster's consent. UDI shouldn't be resorted to except as a last resort, but that resort's there, and should help concentrate even a mind as pig-headed as May's.


If you want to have a legal argument, you should take it up with, I don't know, this chap, say?

http://rwbblog.blogspot.co.uk/2016/08/s ... gally.html
(although, perhaps the reference to the claim of right which has no legal significance, I gather, suggests you don't)

Holyrood (whom you referred to when you talked about Scottish government in the original quote) do not have the power to exercise the kind of sovereignty you refer to though.

As for UDI, it's a non question, it doesn't even belong in the same post as calling someone pig-headed to be honest. Doing so would be orders of magnitude more pig-headed, dangerous and destructive than anything May has ever done or is ever likely to do and doesn't have any legal basis whatsoever, or even the express backing of a majority of Scots.

If Sturgeon is even considering throwing her toys out the pram in this way because she didn't get to dictate timing of a referendum as being at the worst possible for the other 60m Brits she's overreacting on an epic scale. I certainly don't think so little of her I'd assume it, but perhaps you're right, perhaps the debate will move this way.
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Re: UK EU Referendum

#7196  Postby Byron » May 02, 2017 9:59 pm

Thommo wrote:If you want to have a legal argument, you should take it up with, I don't know, this chap, say?

http://rwbblog.blogspot.co.uk/2016/08/s ... gally.html

Holyrood (whom you referred to when you talked about Scottish government in the original quote) do not have the power to exercise the kind of sovereignty you refer to though.

As for UDI, it's a non question, it doesn't even belong in the same post as calling someone pig-headed to be honest. Doing so would be orders of magnitude more pig headed, dangerous, destructive and doesn't have any legal basis whatsoever, or even the express backing of a majority of Scots.

Seriously, a link to a blog from "someone who has always worked in finance," who rants on about SNP cynicism, deception, and manipulation as regards currency. Slots straight into the trope of anti-SNP Scots proclaiming themselves to be betrayed SNP voters.

The legal "analysis" (and I use the term in its loosest possible sense) makes no mention of the administrative law cases in the Court of Session, in which Scottish judges sitting in a Scottish court recognized that parliamentary sovereignty doesn't exist in Scots law, and have consistently "reserved" their opinion on whether Scottish courts have the power to strike down Acts of Parliament that violate the treaties of union.

Nor, in declaring UDIs "illegal," does it take any account of legal realism. Scores of nations have "illegally" declared their independence and been recognized by other nations. In high politics, "law" is whatever other countries decide it is. Sounds like he needs to stick to the day job.
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Re: UK EU Referendum

#7199  Postby ronmcd » May 02, 2017 10:12 pm

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Re: UK EU Referendum

#7200  Postby Byron » May 02, 2017 10:26 pm

For it is he. :lol:
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