Macdoc wrote:Here ya go ....place your bets

https://electionbettingodds.com

Moody's Analytics election model predicts Clinton win

Low gas prices and President Barack Obama's high approval ratings are key factors that favor Democrat Hillary Clinton winning the White House in next week's election, according to a model from Moody's Analytics that has accurately predicted the last nine U.S. presidential contests.

Clinton is forecast to pick up 332 Electoral College votes against 206 for Republican Donald Trump, Moody's Analytics predicted on Tuesday in the final update of its model before Election Day on Nov. 8. That would match Obama's margin of victory over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in 2012.

The Reuters-Ipsos States of the Nation project also predicts a Clinton win, with a 95 percent probability of her winning at least 278 electoral votes. A candidate needs to win at least 270 electoral votes to be elected president.

Clinton leads Trump by 6 points, same as before FBI announcement: Reuters/Ipsos

U.S. Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton arrives to greet hotel workers at The Mirage in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S. November 2, 2016. REUTERS/Brian Snyder
By Chris Kahn | NEW YORK

Hillary Clinton led Republican Donald Trump by 6 percentage points among likely voters, according to a Reuters/Ipsos daily tracking poll released on Wednesday, the same advantage the Democratic presidential nominee held before an FBI announcement that reignited the controversy about her email practices.

The Oct. 28-Nov. 1 opinion poll was conducted almost entirely after FBI Director James Comey notified Congress last Friday his agency would examine newly discovered emails that might pertain to Clinton's use of a private email server while she was secretary of state.

Comey said he did not know whether the emails were significant and released no information other than that they existed. His announcement drew outrage from Democrats who voiced concern it would unfairly influence voters so close to next week's election. Trump and other Republicans seized on the news to revive questions about Clinton's credibility.

Among 1,772 people who have either voted already or were identified as likely voters in the Nov. 8 election, 45 percent said they supported Clinton, while 39 percent said they backed Trump. On Thursday, the day before Comey's announcement, Clinton led Trump by 43 percent to 37 percent.

In a four-way poll that included alternative party candidates, Clinton led Trump by 8 percentage points among likely voters. Forty-five percent supported Clinton, while 37 percent backed Trump. Five percent supported Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and 2 percent backed Jill Stein of the Green Party.

The Oct. 28-Nov. 1 opinion poll was conducted almost entirely after FBI Director James Comey notified Congress last Friday

Turmoil in the FBI
By Evan Perez, Pamela Brown, Shimon Prokupecz and Scott Glover, CNN
Updated 5:38 PM ET, Wed November 2, 2016

Washington (CNN)Among the casualties of the 2016 presidential campaign is the mystique of the FBI.

Behind the scenes over the past 15 months, infighting among some agents and officials has exposed some parts of the storied bureau to be buffeted by some of the same bitter divisions as the rest of American society.
This account is based on interviews with more than a dozen officials close to the matter who spoke anonymously because they've been ordered not to speak to the news media.
Tensions have built in particular over the handling of matters related to Hillary Clinton. Some of the sharpest divides have emerged between some agents in the FBI's New York field office, the bureau's largest and highest-profile, and officials at FBI headquarters in Washington and at the Justice Department.
Some rank-and-file agents interpreted cautious steps taken by the Justice Department and FBI headquarters as being done for political reasons or to protect a powerful political figure. At headquarters, some have viewed the actions and complaints of some agents in the field as driven by the common desire of investigators to get a big case or, perhaps worst, because of partisan views.

OlivierK wrote:Macdoc, you're just cherry-picking the most favourable polls for Clinton. If ALL the polls showed Clinton's lead holding up, then that would be grand, but they don't.

Your contention that the race hasn't tightened contradicts every other reading of the data I've seen, from RCP to 538 to Clinton-friendly press like the Guardian and the NYT, to the betting odds site you linked to which no longer shows Clinton ahead in Florida, and close to slipping behind in Nevada and North Carolina, and reports Clinton's chances as having fallen from 82.3% to 70.7% over the last week.

Yes, all those sources still have her as the favourite to win. No, none of those sources think her chances haven't slipped over the last week.

US election daily dig: Is George W Bush voting for Hillary?
1 hour ago
From the section US Election 2016


George HW and George W BushImage copyrightGETTY IMAGES

The polls are tightening, the appeals to unenthusiastic voters are becoming more desperate - and speculation is mounting about one previously solid group of Republican voters.
The latest
Just when you thought this election could not get any stranger comes the news that George W Bush could be voting for a Democrat. And not just any Democrat.
The revelation came from Texas land commissioner and Trump supporter George P Bush who suggested at a small Republican gathering that his grandfather George HW and uncle George W could both be casting ballots for Hillary Clinton.
Rumours that Bush Senior was a secret supporter of the wife of the man who beat him in 1992 have been circulating for a few weeks, after he reportedly spilled the beans to a member of the Kennedy clan. The 92-year-old was apparently not impressed by Trump's mockery of his son Jeb in the primaries.
But this is the first time we've heard that George W Bush might back Clinton too - like father, like son, it now appears. When Jeb Bush was asked about his brother's intentions, he simply said: "Secret ballot."

(CNN)The 2016 presidential race is coming down to the wire, but an average of national polls show Hillary Clinton continuing to edge out Donald Trump with five days to go before Election Day.

CNN's Poll of Polls shows Clinton leading Donald Trump, 46%-42%, which was updated Thursday to include two new national polls taken after Friday's revelation that the FBI is reviewing new emails to see if they pertain to the bureau's probe into Clinton's handling of classified material at the State Department.
The CNN Poll of Polls is based on an average of the five most recent national phone polls.
In one, via CBS News and the New York Times, Clinton leads Trump among likely voters nationwide, 45%-42%. The other, a new ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll, shows Clinton with a 2-point edge, 47%-45%.

OlivierK wrote:538 now showing Trump favoured in states worth 265 electoral votes, and with a 37% chance in NH. Add ME-2, and it's President Trump. So yeah, I think we can say we're not there yet. Gonna be a long 5 days.

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump by 3 percentage points nationally in a Washington Post-ABC tracking poll released on Friday.

Clinton drew 47 percent of the vote in the survey compared with Trump's 44 percent four days before Tuesday's presidential election, according to the telephone poll of 1,768 adults taken from Sunday to Wednesday. The margin of error was 2.5 percentage points.

OlivierK wrote:Macdoc, you're just cherry-picking the most favourable polls for Clinton. If ALL the polls showed Clinton's lead holding up, then that would be grand, but they don't.

Your contention that the race hasn't tightened contradicts every other reading of the data I've seen, from RCP to 538 to Clinton-friendly press like the Guardian and the NYT, to the betting odds site you linked to which no longer shows Clinton ahead in Florida, and close to slipping behind in Nevada and North Carolina, and reports Clinton's chances as having fallen from 82.3% to 70.7% over the last week.

Yes, all those sources still have her as the favourite to win. No, none of those sources think her chances haven't slipped over the last week.

OlivierK wrote:538 now showing Trump favoured in states worth 265 electoral votes, and with a 37% chance in NH. Add ME-2, and it's President Trump. So yeah, I think we can say we're not there yet. Gonna be a long 5 days.

Byron wrote:

OlivierK wrote:Macdoc, you're just cherry-picking the most favourable polls for Clinton. If ALL the polls showed Clinton's lead holding up, then that would be grand, but they don't.

Your contention that the race hasn't tightened contradicts every other reading of the data I've seen, from RCP to 538 to Clinton-friendly press like the Guardian and the NYT, to the betting odds site you linked to which no longer shows Clinton ahead in Florida, and close to slipping behind in Nevada and North Carolina, and reports Clinton's chances as having fallen from 82.3% to 70.7% over the last week.

Yes, all those sources still have her as the favourite to win. No, none of those sources think her chances haven't slipped over the last week.

Not to mention Trump's ace in the hole: first time or long-absent voters. People usually alienated from the political process, and so off many of the pollsters' radar, however representative they try and make their efforts. That's what happened with Brexit, with turnout shooting up in many deprived areas. If Trump can get out the white working class vote in the rust belt, there's every chance he can swing it.