Are we there yet ???

Greyman · **#101** by **Greyman** » Nov 05, 2016 12:35 am

Byron wrote:Even get past all that, and the House can launch impeachment proceedings against Clinton by simple majority, on any trumped up charges they please.

Pun intended?

Byron · **#102** by **Byron** » Nov 05, 2016 12:42 am

Acetone wrote:I've read a few articles showing that the Brexit polling issue was with bias in analysis not the actual data.

Well yes, it was: the two aren't in conflict. Since much of it went on previous elections and referenda, pollsters underestimated turnout among Leave voters.

This may not be replicated across the Atlantic, of course; or if it is, high Trump turnout may be cancelled out by high Clinton turnout, especially if voters are spooked by the prospect of a Trump victory. The narrowing polls, in eliminating complacency among her supporters, could well help Clinton.

Greyman wrote:
Byron wrote:Even get past all that, and the House can launch impeachment proceedings against Clinton by simple majority, on any trumped up charges they please.
Pun intended?

Couldn't resist.

Oldskeptic · **#103** by **Oldskeptic** » Nov 05, 2016 12:56 am

Byron wrote:
OlivierK wrote:538 now showing Trump favoured in states worth 265 electoral votes, and with a 37% chance in NH. Add ME-2, and it's President Trump. So yeah, I think we can say we're not there yet. Gonna be a long 5 days.

Even if he loses, given his refusal to promise to accept the result, all bets are off. He can sue, and drag it out in the courts for months; his sympathizers in the bureau can ramp up the F.B.I. pressure on Clinton; and most disturbing of all, his more militant supporters can "take action."

Even get past all that, and the House can launch impeachment proceedings against Clinton by simple majority, on any trumped up charges they please.

Almost exactly what Ryan and Gingrich have been promising. A never ending barrage of harassment having more to do with sour grapes and personal hatred than anything else.

Byron · **#104** by **Byron** » Nov 05, 2016 1:04 am

Oldskeptic wrote:Almost exactly what Ryan and Gingrich have been promising. A never ending barrage of harassment having more to do with sour grapes and personal hatred than anything else.

Agreed, partisanism's become so poisonous that it's making responsible government impossible. Turning this general into a referendum on a Supreme Court seat is a particularly egregious example.

How it's to be dampened, I don't know: perhaps a charismatic candidate emerges in the next cycle, with the charm and political nous to cut deals; or, failing that, demographic changes gradually erode the GOP's support. I hope it's not the latter, 'cause damn, enough already.

thaesofereode · **#105** by **thaesofereode** » Nov 05, 2016 1:49 am

Oldskeptic wrote:
Byron wrote:
OlivierK wrote:538 now showing Trump favoured in states worth 265 electoral votes, and with a 37% chance in NH. Add ME-2, and it's President Trump. So yeah, I think we can say we're not there yet. Gonna be a long 5 days.

Even if he loses, given his refusal to promise to accept the result, all bets are off. He can sue, and drag it out in the courts for months; his sympathizers in the bureau can ramp up the F.B.I. pressure on Clinton; and most disturbing of all, his more militant supporters can "take action."

Even get past all that, and the House can launch impeachment proceedings against Clinton by simple majority, on any trumped up charges they please.

Almost exactly what Ryan and Gingrich have been promising. A never ending barrage of harassment having more to do with sour grapes and personal hatred than anything else.

Yeah. Went and early-voted last week to get it over with, and because am not sure what sort of "don't-tread-on-me" reaction I might have at the sight of vigilante poll-watchers videoing with their phones. Experienced an uncontrollable need the other night to slap Kellyanne Conway in the face, if only she had been within reach.

Had enough already. Bleah, bleah, bleah. A certain resignation is setting in, helped along with a fair amount of rum with nutmeg in hot milk. And chocolate.

Am thinking about staying home from work on Tuesday in case of civil unrest. Likely won't be able to focus on work anyway, so why not.

Had an episode of inability to stop laughing the other night when the phrase crossed my mind: "What if Absolutely Everything Is Complete Bullshit?" Laughed 'til tears in my eyes.

Now if the Russians fuck with the digital infrastructure day-before or day-of, and we "retaliate" by messing up their communications systems, all we'll need is for there to be some inability for them to be able to tell whether there has also been a missile launch, or inability to verify if such has taken place, in which case they'll have to launch, and the Law of Unintended Consequences will settle it for all of us.

Who gives a flying fuck anyway.

OlivierK · **#106** by **OlivierK** » Nov 05, 2016 10:55 am

Ah, sweet nuclear paranoia - reminds me of my late teens/early adulthood in the 1980s :cheers:

Here, have a protest song:

thaesofereode · **#107** by **thaesofereode** » Nov 05, 2016 1:37 pm

OlivierK wrote:Ah, sweet nuclear paranoia - reminds me of my late teens/early adulthood in the 1980s

Hah. Doesn't even hold a candle to the backyard-shelter-building, grocery-shelf-clearing, school classroom drills atmosphere of the early 60s. Where I lived, we didn't just have fire drills in school, we also had tornado drills and the ever-popular, get-under-your-desk duck-and-cover drills. The town sirens could be for either one of the two latter. Can tell you that's a sobering experience for 8 year olds. People have forgotten all that it seems, but if you've checked The Clock
http://thebulletin.org/timeline
lately, you wouldn't be so sanguine, my friend.

[Edit to add....]This seems a likely link in the chain of events:
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/whi ... em-n677636

OlivierK · **#108** by **OlivierK** » Nov 05, 2016 8:51 pm

thaesofereode wrote:People have forgotten all that it seems, but if you've checked The Clock lately, you wouldn't be so sanguine, my friend.

I'm not particularly sanguine, or if I am it's because it seems every generation needs to go to the brink for itself to work out that that's not the best place to be, and at this point, we're all just along for the ride, again, because people won't learn from history.

Since you mentioned the clock, have another protest song :cheers:

Byron · **#109** by **Byron** » Nov 05, 2016 11:51 pm

I'm sanguine as ever: Trump's a NYC blowhard, not General Jack D. Ripper; and even if he were, you'd almost certainly get a repeat of what James Schlesinger did when Nixon went screwy (the Secretary of Defense conspires with the Joint Chiefs to block the president's launch authority).

As for Putin, he's a ruthless and pragmatic cold warrior, who knows how far to push it. He wants Russia to be a superpower again, not glassed.

Until these godawful weapons are decommissioned, the greatest risk is false alerts. To date, they've been thwarted by officers such as Vasili Arkhipovdis and Stanislav Petrov disobeying orders. That this repeatedly happened in the authoritarian U.S.S.R. just goes to show how reluctant any sane person is to press the button.

No need to spin R.E.M. just yet.

Macdoc · **#110** by **Macdoc** » Nov 06, 2016 6:16 am

thaesofereode · **#111** by **thaesofereode** » Nov 07, 2016 2:46 am

OlivierK wrote:...people won't learn from history.

And thus the odds of it all going sideways are the same afresh with every generation. Just because it hasn't happened YET does not mean it's any less likely now. Hence a false sense of security.

Macdoc · **#112** by **Macdoc** » Nov 07, 2016 5:10 am

CBC is projecting Hillary

HILLARY CLINTON 323
PROJECTED
VOTES
HIGH: 357 VOTES
LOW: 269 VOTES

http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/uspolltracker/

Macdoc · **#113** by **Macdoc** » Nov 07, 2016 8:15 am

Not looking good for the Dumpf in the betting circles,...

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-e ... SKBN1320HW

Some even thinking a landslide for Hillary .....interesting times.

Reuters has her up

The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Clinton with a 5 percentage point lead over Trump in the national survey - 44 percent to 39 percent - while races in the swing states of Florida, North Carolina had shifted from Clinton's control to being too close to call.

Macdoc · **#114** by **Macdoc** » Nov 07, 2016 8:39 am

Starting a roll call....
Australia op-ed...ABC Australia's public broadcaster.

Prediction: Hillary Clinton to win with at least 274 electoral votes
OPINION
By Bruce Wolpe
Updated about 10 hours ago

With the US presidential campaign in its last hours, it's time to make The Call: Hillary Clinton will be elected president with at least 274 electoral votes.

The magic number for election as president is 270.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-07/o ... n=analysis

...
New York Times

Who Will Be President? Nov 7
By JOSH KATZ UPDATED 37 minutes ago

Hillary Clinton has an 84% chance to win.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016 ... .html?_r=0

Macdoc · **#115** by **Macdoc** » Nov 07, 2016 8:48 am

right on ...are we fucking THERE YET!!!!!!!!

All of Canada complained aboot the endless 2015 election campaign -- which lasted 78 days. Ha!

View from Canada: Your elections are too damn long!

Sometimes I think I’ve adapted successfully to the American way of life. I can tell the temperature in Fahrenheit and without complaint. I have eliminated “shreddies,” “smarties” and “ketchup chips” from my diet. I don’t even visibly cringe anymore when a complete stranger stops me mid-sentence to ask, “Did you just say aboot?”

But as a Canadian living in New York through my first presidential election cycle, I have to admit the process has me boggled, and not because of the small-handed, spray-tanned man in the extended red tie. It’s about the excruciatingly long period of time the United States devotes to its presidential election campaign, one of the longest election seasons in the world.

For Canadians, the longest campaign in our history was 89 days — and that was in 1872. A two-year campaign, which has become the U.S. norm, is nearly incomprehensible. The average length of a Canadian election is 50 days. Last year, when Canada’s election season lasted a full 78 days, concerned headlines wondered whether “Lengthy election could be recipe for Canadian chaos.” The thought of the costs and voter fatigue such a prolonged campaign invokes is enough to send any Canadian’s heart into a cool winter flurry.

Hillary Clinton declared her bid for presidency on April 12, 2015; that was 576 days before Americans would head into the voting booths for the 2016 presidential election. Since Clinton began her campaign, former prime minister Stephen Harper dissolved Canada’s parliament, called an election, lost to current Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and retired from party leadership. While Harper celebrates the one-year anniversary of his ouster from politics, Clinton keeps on delivering her stump speech in an evolving palette of power suits.

more http://www.salon.com/2016/11/06/view-fr ... damn-long/

Pulease bury this steaming pile of maggot ridden horseshit tomorrow and let the world move on.... :nono:

Macdoc · **#116** by **Macdoc** » Nov 07, 2016 2:14 pm

One fucking day left

Clinton leads Trump 47-43 percent in White House race: Washington Post/ABC poll
WASHINGTON Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton held a four percentage point lead over Republican Donald Trump in the ABC News/Washington Post poll released on Monday, one day before the U.S. presidential election.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-e ... SKBN1321KP

But the Senate is the important one...

| Mon Nov 7, 2016 | 6:08am EST
Republicans, Democrats vie for control of Congress on Tuesday

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-e ... SKBN13218S

ScholasticSpastic · **#117** by **ScholasticSpastic** » Nov 07, 2016 2:40 pm

Macdoc wrote:
But the Senate is the important one...

You bet your ass, it is. My State keeps electing complete fucknuts to the House and Senate, so we really need the other States to counter this. I would almost rather see Trump over a Democrat-led Congress than Clinton over a Republican-led congress. In the first case, nothing would get done, and the Republicans would wind up looking like shit, but in the latter, we basically have the same outcome, but it works against the Democrats. That bothers me, because it's been the Republican Congress that's been holding the government hostage, shutting things down, and pursuing paranoid flights of fantasy, and I'd really like to see them shoulder the blame for their own incompetence. Also, a Democrat-led Congress could reverse 2010's insane levels of gerrymandering.

Byron · **#118** by **Byron** » Nov 07, 2016 8:02 pm

ScholasticSpastic wrote:[...] Also, a Democrat-led Congress could reverse 2010's insane levels of gerrymandering.

It could, but doubt it'd have the two-thirds necessary to override a Trump veto; and in any case, plenty Democrats benefit from gerrymandering. Real restrictions on gerrymandering have come, in a handful of states, via popular initiatives, in the teeth of fierce opposition from both parties.

The best bet is the Supreme Court finally ending the practice, or more popular initiatives state-by-state.

ScholasticSpastic · **#119** by **ScholasticSpastic** » Nov 07, 2016 8:08 pm

Byron wrote:
The best bet is the Supreme Court finally ending the practice, or more popular initiatives state-by-state.

I would very much like to see this.

laklak · **#120** by **laklak** » Nov 07, 2016 8:25 pm

Almost goddamn over thank you Sweet Baby Jesus. The phone has been ringing non-stop with political robocalls, my Facebook feed looks like Armageddon and I can't even watch the bleeding local news without having to listen to that braying jackass of a woman or the vile rutabaga head creature.

The Mako (fishing boat) goes into the water for the first time in almost a year tomorrow for a shakedown cruise. We leave early Wednesday morning, probably around 5:00 AM. Lots of new wiring, rebuilt outboards, etc. to test. We'll be well offshore, stocked with plenty of beer and propane for the BBQ, but within cellphone internet connection distance. We'll watch the snot and drama from an armed and defensible position in deep water.

King Neptune may smile and we'll have fresh mahi for dinner.

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