UK EU Referendum

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Re: UK EU Referendum

#2041  Postby Thommo » Jun 27, 2016 3:23 pm

GrahamH wrote:
tuco wrote:The tricky part of Brexit plan is that its not unilateral declaration but rather consensus between the UK and the EU. In this sense, what can anyone promise to deliver except general statements?


Sure, it's all fucked up and a GE is not a good vehicle, but without GE with Brexit plan in the manifesto, or a second referendum on such a plan, what mandate does any PM have to act, beyond delivering notice under Article 50?

In or out of the EEA? No mandate.
Free movement? No mandate.
Paying money to the EU? No mandate.

Surely we have to either start with a plan that has a mandate, or just press the button, see what we can get, and present that deal to the people. Do you think it would be adequate to just present the negotiated deal to a Europhile Parliament?

Big changes that are not tested by referendum are usually introduced through GE manifestos.


The mandate on those issues stems from the fundamental character of a representative democracy and passing a bill in the houses of parliament, accepting that whatever has been negotiated represents the best the negotiating team under the auspices of a prime minister and cabinet can achieve. The concept of a "mandate" is pretty nebulous and a general election fought among constituencies rather than for a president, on a range of issues involving disparate views on hundreds of important issues condensed down into a couple of options is unlikely to resolve any of those things.
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Re: UK EU Referendum

#2042  Postby Thommo » Jun 27, 2016 3:27 pm

Just remembered:

Scot Dutchy wrote:Europe wont push Britain.
Europe's leaders begin crunch talks to contain Brexit fallout

John Kerry’s arrival in Brussels kicks off key meetings among EU countries before Tuesday’s crucial summit
The US secretary of state, John Kerry, is flying into Brussels for urgent talks at the start of a crunch week for Europe as leaders struggle to contain the fallout from Britain’s seismic decision to leave the EU.

Kerry will meet the EU’s foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, in the Belgian capital on Monday morning and then fly to London for talks with the British foreign secretary, Philip Hammond.

The president of the European council, Donald Tusk, is to meet French president François Hollande in Paris before flying with Hollande to Berlin for talks with the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, and Matteo Renzi, the Italian prime minister, ahead of a crucial two-day EU summit starting on Tuesday.

European leaders have said they would like Britain to make a swift start on the marathon task of extricating itself from the bloc by triggering article 50 of the Lisbon treaty, the untested procedure governing how a member state leaves, as soon as possible.
More...


This I found interesting:

Brussels officials have also emphatically ruled out informal talks on a possible trade deal before the UK triggers article 50. “No notification, no negotiation,” one official said on Sunday. A diplomat added: “If they treat their referendum as a non-event, we will also treat their referendum as a non-event.”


Is the referendum now a non event in Boris's eyes? I don think leave ever expected to win.

The prime minister reportedly told the commission’s president, Jean-Claude Juncker, at a 2014 G20 summit that he could win a referendum “by a margin of 70 to 30”. Juncker replied that even Luxembourg would not vote to stay in the EU by such a big majority, according to one EU diplomat.

Brussels insiders are also frustrated and angry that Cameron did not use the UK reform deal – painstakingly agreed by all EU member states in February – to defend the EU during the campaign. “You don’t reverse a perception between 19 February and 23 June that you have created,” the diplomat said.

As shockwaves from the Brexit decision continued to spread, EU officials also said on Sunday the bloc was preparing to move its European Banking Authority from London, setting up a race led by Paris and Frankfurt to host the regulator.


Completely fucked up. The Bullingdon boys little game back fired.


I wanted to congratulate you on being so forthright to point out that your prognostications over the weekend had been completely wrong. Always good to see someone willing to back down and admit an error. :thumbup:
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Re: UK EU Referendum

#2043  Postby tuco » Jun 27, 2016 3:29 pm

I am with ronmcd, I have no idea. I am also with Animavore, this is possibly historic. I am with others who noted having actual deal for exit and having option for exit are two different things.

I think the UK and EU representatives need to get together and offer ideas. What happens after that I don't dare to guess though I believe the UK populace should have opportunity to have their say in it.
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Re: UK EU Referendum

#2044  Postby Animavore » Jun 27, 2016 3:30 pm

tuco wrote:I am also with Animavore, this is possibly historic.


I was quoting someone else.
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Re: UK EU Referendum

#2045  Postby tuco » Jun 27, 2016 3:31 pm

Ok :) Do you think its possibly historic?
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Re: UK EU Referendum

#2046  Postby GrahamH » Jun 27, 2016 3:31 pm

Thommo wrote:
GrahamH wrote:
tuco wrote:The tricky part of Brexit plan is that its not unilateral declaration but rather consensus between the UK and the EU. In this sense, what can anyone promise to deliver except general statements?


Sure, it's all fucked up and a GE is not a good vehicle, but without GE with Brexit plan in the manifesto, or a second referendum on such a plan, what mandate does any PM have to act, beyond delivering notice under Article 50?

In or out of the EEA? No mandate.
Free movement? No mandate.
Paying money to the EU? No mandate.

Surely we have to either start with a plan that has a mandate, or just press the button, see what we can get, and present that deal to the people. Do you think it would be adequate to just present the negotiated deal to a Europhile Parliament?

Big changes that are not tested by referendum are usually introduced through GE manifestos.


The mandate on those issues stems from the fundamental character of a representative democracy and passing a bill in the houses of parliament, accepting that whatever has been negotiated represents the best the negotiating team under the auspices of a prime minister and cabinet can achieve. The concept of a "mandate" is pretty nebulous and a general election fought among constituencies rather than for a president, on a range of issues involving disparate views on hundreds of important issues condensed down into a couple of options is unlikely to resolve any of those things.


It doesn't resolte any of those things, it give a crude, confused, mixed-up nod to the overall package that contains those things.

It's crap, but it's how it's usually done.

Want to cut 12bn from welfare? Stick it in your manifesto along with all sorts of other things - people vote on it and party affiliation, preferred PM, to keep out some other party / PM or policy. If you get elected, for various reasons, you later claim a mandate for making those cuts.

The alternative, of standing up just unilaterally declaring you intend to do this, maybe testing it in some way in parliament, perhaps hiding it is a budget, is another option, but leaves the politician more exposed.
I don't see anyone stepping up right now to be so exposed.
Last edited by GrahamH on Jun 27, 2016 3:43 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Why do you think that?
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Re: UK EU Referendum

#2047  Postby Animavore » Jun 27, 2016 3:33 pm

tuco wrote:Ok :) Do you think its possibly historic?


You'll have to ask the people of the future who will undoubtedly catalog this time into a series of events.
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Re: UK EU Referendum

#2048  Postby tuco » Jun 27, 2016 3:38 pm

That is the nature of historical events yes. Well, I am with who was it? Brendan O'Neill
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Re: UK EU Referendum

#2049  Postby ronmcd » Jun 27, 2016 3:40 pm

Thommo wrote:
ronmcd wrote:Can't believe I've so far missed the opportunity to post my most used gif. Sums up the current situation completely.

Image


Wouldn't it be great if Alan Partridge became the new leader of the Tories. Him or Al Murray. :ask:

Partridge would clearly be PM, Al Murray foreign secretary. I'm trying to think of a fictional character of special idiocy to be chancellor, but my mind's a blank at the moment :smile:
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Re: UK EU Referendum

#2050  Postby Animavore » Jun 27, 2016 3:40 pm

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Re: UK EU Referendum

#2051  Postby Thommo » Jun 27, 2016 3:44 pm

ronmcd wrote:
Thommo wrote:
ronmcd wrote:Can't believe I've so far missed the opportunity to post my most used gif. Sums up the current situation completely.

Image


Wouldn't it be great if Alan Partridge became the new leader of the Tories. Him or Al Murray. :ask:

Partridge would clearly be PM, Al Murray foreign secretary. I'm trying to think of a fictional character of special idiocy to be chancellor, but my mind's a blank at the moment :smile:


Alan B'Stard? Cookie Monster? :think:
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Re: UK EU Referendum

#2052  Postby mcgruff » Jun 27, 2016 3:45 pm

Death threat made against Scottish MSP:

https://twitter.com/gemcch/status/747023037745209344

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Re: UK EU Referendum

#2053  Postby zoon » Jun 27, 2016 3:46 pm

Thommo wrote:
GrahamH wrote:
tuco wrote:The tricky part of Brexit plan is that its not unilateral declaration but rather consensus between the UK and the EU. In this sense, what can anyone promise to deliver except general statements?


Sure, it's all fucked up and a GE is not a good vehicle, but without GE with Brexit plan in the manifesto, or a second referendum on such a plan, what mandate does any PM have to act, beyond delivering notice under Article 50?

In or out of the EEA? No mandate.
Free movement? No mandate.
Paying money to the EU? No mandate.

Surely we have to either start with a plan that has a mandate, or just press the button, see what we can get, and present that deal to the people. Do you think it would be adequate to just present the negotiated deal to a Europhile Parliament?

Big changes that are not tested by referendum are usually introduced through GE manifestos.


The mandate on those issues stems from the fundamental character of a representative democracy and passing a bill in the houses of parliament, accepting that whatever has been negotiated represents the best the negotiating team under the auspices of a prime minister and cabinet can achieve. The concept of a "mandate" is pretty nebulous and a general election fought among constituencies rather than for a president, on a range of issues involving disparate views on hundreds of important issues condensed down into a couple of options is unlikely to resolve any of those things.

Yes, quoting from an article in the Times today:
Lucy Fisher wrote:New UK legislation to trigger the formal treaty mechanism that would take Britain out of the EU will be required to facilitate Brexit, top QCs have warned.

The requirement for a new law could scupper the move to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty, which sets out the legal process for a nation's secession from the EU, because a majority of MPs backed Ramain and could in principle block the Leave result in the Commons.

Geoffrey Robertson, QC, founder of Doughty Street Chambers, told the Times: "People think Brexit is a done deal; it's not. Our democracy rests on parliamentary sovereignty, which is in the keeping of MPs, who make or break laws, and peers, who can block laws.

"Before Brexit can be triggered, parliament has to act by repealing the legislation that keeps Britain in the EU. And in that vote MPs are entitled to act according to their conscience and what is best for Britain."

He predicted that MPs representing London and Scottish seats would likely "have no moral difficulty" in rejecting the result because their constituents did not vote for it. He insisted that others could "quite properly decide that by the time the repeal comes before parliament, probably in November, that Brexit would turn out badly for Britain, and decide to vote against it".

Another leading QC also said that new legislation would be required. Charles Flint, QC, from Blackstone Chambers, says in a letter to The Times published today: "Under the European Union Act 2011....a change to the treaty on European Union, agreed between member states, would have required approval both by referendum and by act of parliament."


So Scot Dutchy in post #1988 had a better point than I realised:
Scot Dutchy wrote:The House of Commons should reject the referendum result. A few people could be angry but it would be worth it. Any other position to that of being a full member will be a disaster and turn out very expensive with less rights.


The British constitution doesn't exist as such, but in general nothing's mandated until parliament says so. At the same time, the article suggests parliament not voting on the matter until November, rather than now, which would leave more time for the ramifications to have become clearer and, with any luck, for general opinion to have shifted, so that English MPs who back remain, but whose constituencies voted leave, would not be voting (or at least not so blatantly) against their own electorate.
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Re: UK EU Referendum

#2054  Postby Animavore » Jun 27, 2016 3:55 pm

Jesus, this Brexit thing has kicked off xenophobic resentment in Ireland now. Three lads at lunch time were talking about sending foreigners home, Irish jobs for Irish people and all that, talking about a takeover if the Turks join and leaving the EU.

I argued as best I could, then one of the other lads walked in, a Hungarian, and the subject changed and they were talking and laughng with him.

Cowards and hypocrites.

This is the underbelly of what Brexit has started. Growing nationalism and racism across Europe.

Thanks guys.
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Re: UK EU Referendum

#2055  Postby mcgruff » Jun 27, 2016 3:56 pm

THWOTH wrote:
"You've got that eternal idiotic idea that if anarchy came it would come from the poor. Why should it? The poor have been rebels, but they have never been anarchists; they have more interest than anyone else in there being some decent government. The poor man really has a stake in the country. The rich man hasn't; he can go away to New Guinea in a yacht. The poor have sometimes objected to being governed badly; the rich have always objected to being governed at all. Aristocrats are always anarchists."
    -- G.K. Chesterton, The Man Who Was Thursday, 1908


Great quote.
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Re: UK EU Referendum

#2056  Postby scott1328 » Jun 27, 2016 4:05 pm

Animavore wrote:Jesus, this Brexit thing has kicked off xenophobic resentment in Ireland now. Three lads at lunch time were talking about sending foreigners home, Irish jobs for Irish people and all that, talking about a takeover if the Turks join and leaving the EU.

I argued as best I could, then one of the other lads walked in, a Hungarian, and the subject changed and they were talking and laughng with him.

Cowards and hypocrites.

This is the underbelly of what Brexit has started. Growing nationalism and racism across Europe.

Thanks guys.

Growing nationalism and racism across Europe? What's the worst that could happen?
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Re: UK EU Referendum

#2057  Postby ronmcd » Jun 27, 2016 4:07 pm

Thommo wrote:
ronmcd wrote:
Thommo wrote:
ronmcd wrote:Can't believe I've so far missed the opportunity to post my most used gif. Sums up the current situation completely.

Image


Wouldn't it be great if Alan Partridge became the new leader of the Tories. Him or Al Murray. :ask:

Partridge would clearly be PM, Al Murray foreign secretary. I'm trying to think of a fictional character of special idiocy to be chancellor, but my mind's a blank at the moment :smile:


Alan B'Stard? Cookie Monster? :think:

Noo! Cookie Monster is adorable.
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Re: UK EU Referendum

#2058  Postby Thommo » Jun 27, 2016 4:08 pm

zoon wrote:The British constitution doesn't exist as such, but in general nothing's mandated until parliament says so. At the same time, the article suggests parliament not voting on the matter until November, rather than now, which would leave more time for the ramifications to have become clearer and, with any luck, for general opinion to have shifted, so that English MPs who back remain, but whose constituencies voted leave, would not be voting (or at least not so blatantly) against their own electorate.


It's something to consider. I think I said yesterday that I was "almost certain" that Britain would leave the EU (in one form or another). I should probably dial that back to "expect", because the suggestion that a number of MPs will vote against a bill to submit under article 50 is actually plausible and legal.
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Re: UK EU Referendum

#2059  Postby Thommo » Jun 27, 2016 4:08 pm

ronmcd wrote:
Thommo wrote:
ronmcd wrote:
Thommo wrote:

Wouldn't it be great if Alan Partridge became the new leader of the Tories. Him or Al Murray. :ask:

Partridge would clearly be PM, Al Murray foreign secretary. I'm trying to think of a fictional character of special idiocy to be chancellor, but my mind's a blank at the moment :smile:


Alan B'Stard? Cookie Monster? :think:

Noo! Cookie Monster is adorable.


But he'd look adorable with that little red box. Can't you just imagine the cast of Sesame Street tossing government papers left and right, singing a little song and trying to teach the country to count to 20?

The more I think about this, the more I like it. :lol:

Anyway, if you're still looking for fictional characters who'd be about as Tory/bad at the job/small minded as possible to be chancellor of the exchequer, what about George Osborne - He's right wing, posh, innumerate and as far as I can tell nobody's ever seen him to confirm his existence.
Last edited by Thommo on Jun 27, 2016 4:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: UK EU Referendum

#2060  Postby mrjonno » Jun 27, 2016 4:10 pm

mcgruff wrote:Death threat made against Scottish MSP:

https://twitter.com/gemcch/status/747023037745209344

Image


Very unpleasant but that plainly isnt a serious death threat
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